Highlights Treasury Yields: The uptrend in Treasury yields has run into extreme technical resistance and is likely to abate during the next few weeks. Beyond that, a cyclical sweet spot of improving growth and accommodative monetary…
Highlights Recent market moves have been emotionally driven and speculative in nature. The risk is now that tighter monetary conditions risk crimping growth in the near term. Since 2014, whenever the 10-year Treasury yield has reached…
Highlights The blistering dollar rally has mimicked the selloff in U.S. and global bonds. The dollar and bonds may have gotten ahead of themselves. A short-term reversal or a pause in the recent trend is becoming our base-case scenario…
Highlights Tighter global oil markets resulting from the production cut we expect to be announced November 30 at OPEC's Vienna meeting, along with fiscal stimulus from the incoming Trump administration in the U.S., will continue to…
Highlights The 50bps spike in the JPM global government bond yield since August constitutes one of the most aggressive tightenings since the Great Recession. Higher bond yields weaken credit growth, and weaker credit growth almost…
Highlights Trump's Win: The Republican sweep of both the White House and Congress in the U.S. elections will allow President-elect Donald Trump to implement much of his planned policies, including a major fiscal stimulus package.…
Highlights Duration: We continue to advocate a below benchmark duration stance, but the bond bear market is likely to take a pause once market rate expectations have fully converged with the Fed's forecasts. TIPS: The Fed will be…
Highlights Trump's election victory means that there is potential for policy settings to flip from "easy money, tight fiscal" to "tight money, easy fiscal" The market implications of that shift are dollar…
BCA will be holding the Dubai session of the BCA Academy seminar on November 28 & 29. This two-day course teaches investment professionals how to examine the economy, policy, and markets; and also makes links between these important…
Highlights All three of Trump's signature policy proposals - fiscal stimulus, a more restrictive immigration policy, and trade protectionism - are dollar bullish. The implementation of these policies could cause the U.S. economy…