Highlights A positive backdrop still supports a cyclical bull market in Chinese stocks, but the upside in prices could be quickly exhausted. Investors may be overlooking emerging negative signs in China’s onshore equity market.…

Highlights Global Yields: The fall in global bond yields over the past two weeks represents a corrective pullback from an overly rapid rise in inflation expectations, especially in the US. The underlying reflationary themes that drove…

Highlights Our baseline view is that inflation will increase only modestly over the next few years before accelerating in the middle of the decade. Nevertheless, the risks are skewed towards an earlier and sharper increase in inflation…

Special Report

Highlights Chinese equities have rallied enthusiastically since the COVID-19 outbreak and are now exposed to underlying political and geopolitical risks. Xi Jinping’s intention is to push forward reform and restructuring,…

Highlights Inflation: Additional fiscal stimulus will lead to higher inflation in the goods sector, where bottlenecks are already forming. But stronger services inflation is required (particularly in shelter) before broad price…

Highlights Even though bonds have cheapened relative to stocks, the equity risk premium remains elevated. The end of the pandemic and supportive fiscal and monetary policies should buoy economic activity in the second half of the year…

Highlights Rising commodity prices and a weaker dollar will lead to higher inflation at the consumer level beginning this year. In the real economy, tighter commodity fundamentals – restrained supply growth, increasing demand,…

Highlights The incidents of state-owned enterprise (SOE) bond defaults late last year reflected deteriorating corporate balance sheets and exposed local governments’ weakening fiscal positions. Both were preexisting conditions…

Highlights US Reflation: The Georgia senate victories for the Democratic Party have returned the bond-bearish “Blue Sweep” scenarios to the forefront. More fiscal stimulus and an easy Fed will extend the policy-driven…

Highlights Rates: The Democratic sweep of the election has caused the uptrend in bond yields to accelerate and has benefited our recommended rates positions (below-benchmark duration, nominal and real curve steepeners, inflation curve…