The financial sector has enjoyed a modest respite as the market has pulled forward Fed rate hike expectations. However, we doubt that will last long if the yield curve continues to narrow and the U.S dollar firms, importing deflationary…
REITs have been climbing a wall of worry in recent years, as the group has had to overcome chronic concerns about potential supply growth and low cap rates. To be sure, the group typically experiences a boom/bust cycle. However, outside…
Shift to a small vs. large cap bias as a stealth way to play the overall equity market overshoot. The oversold bounce in banks is not worth chasing, and buy dips in medical equipment stocks.
The euro area's NPL problem is unlikely to be solved quickly, constraining bank profitability and the capacity to lend. There are three important repercussions for investors.
The strong July employment report may tempt investors to lean into bank stock relative performance weakness, under the assumption that signs of solid domestic growth will finally alter the interest rate structure in a positive fashion.…
Typically when the Fed has begun to lift interest rates, overall credit growth is expanding at a rapid clip because banks have been increasingly lax in doling out credit. Consequently, any deterioration in credit quality can be offset…
The Chinese manufacturing sector has remained under downward pressure, but the stress level has alleviated compared to a few months ago. The Chinese labor market will likely continue to deteriorate, which will force policymakers to…
The odds of an inflation "mini-scare" are rising, although deflationary tail risks from abroad cannot be dismissed.