The country's top 5 banks, collectively representing 80% of the S&P 500 bank index all reported Q2 EPS ahead of analyst expectations. The story was no different with investment banks as heavyweights GS and MS both reported solid…
Highlights China's strong second-quarter growth numbers released early this week confirmed the synchronized global growth upturn within the major economies. Our model is predicting an imminent increase in the PBoC's benchmark…
The Fed will likely start renormalizing the balance sheet later this year and the ECB is preparing to taper asset purchases. In the G10, the BoC recently tightened monetary policy and more central banks are lining up to lift…
Highlights Key Portfolio Updates Synchronized global economic growth is driving real yields higher and boosting equities (Chart 1). Meantime, core inflation remains muted which will ensure that Fed policy stays sufficiently…
Out of the gate, our financials versus tech sector pair trade has caught fire, returning 6.2% in the last 2 weeks. This reflects the tightening of the historically wide relative market capitalization differential (second and third…
Highlights Duration: Investor optimism about U.S. growth and inflation will return in the coming months. Remain at below-benchmark duration and enter a short position in the July fed funds futures contract. Close short positions in the…
Highlights The Q2 earnings season will be above average and the BCA Earnings model predicts EPS growth to hit 18% later this year before moderating in 2018. Are the NIPA and S&P profit measures sending different signals? Business…
The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced the results of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) of the nation's largest banks with a 100% pass rate. This is of particular note as it is the largest test (34…
Over the past month, we have reduced the extent of our consumer staples overweight, downgrading soft drinks to underweight and hypermarkets to neutral. In contrast, in May we boosted the S&P financials index to overweight on the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Swap consumer staples into financials in our pair trade versus the tech sector. Relative profit fundamentals signal that this relative share price ratio will soon come alive. Global growth tailwinds…