Financials
Overweight Anecdotal evidence of a strong recovery in holiday shopping, not least of which is Amazon's guidance of 28-38% growth in the December quarter, should see retailers in festive moods. However, with online sales set to overtake in-store for the…
Highlights Overweighting Eurostoxx50 versus S&P500 is just a sector play - you must believe that banks are going to outperform technology. It is categorically not a relative economic growth or relative valuation play. The best expression of euro area…
With the Senate Republicans passing their version of the bill on December 2, the odds that a final version of the bill will pass into law are now very high, though investors remain skeptical that there will be any stimulative economic effect from tax cuts…
Highlights The House and Senate have passed similar tax cut bills; passage of a compromise version seems all but certain; Combined with the Trump administration's de-regulation efforts, fundamentals point ever higher for U.S. earnings; The under-reported…
Our key themes for 2018 should juice profits in the S&P banks index as all three key drivers of bank profits, namely price of credit, loan growth and credit quality, are simultaneously moving in the right direction. In fact, the index has already…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Synchronized global capex growth, a derivative of BCA's synchronized global growth thesis, will be a dominant theme next year, benefiting cyclicals over defensives. Three high-conviction calls are levered to this theme.…
Dear Client, Today we are sending you a two-part Special Report prepared by my colleague Billy Zicheng Huang of our Emerging Markets Equity Sector Strategy team, entitled “A Sector Guide To A-shares”. Part I of the report was published in September,…
Highlights The current mini-upswing in the global mini-cycle started in May and is likely to end around January. On a 6-month horizon, lean against the rally in industrial metals. Equity investors should underweight Basic Resources, and especially…
Highlights Three factors point to stable or narrower USD cross-currency basis swap spreads: the improving health of global banks, the end of the adjustment to the regulatory change affecting prime-money market funds, and the relaxation to the…
Highlights Three factors point to stable or narrower USD cross-currency basis swap spreads: the improving health of global banks, the end of the adjustment to the regulatory change affecting prime-money market funds, and the relaxation to the…