Highlights Prediction 1: A major financial downturn will trigger the next major economic downturn, and not the other way round. Prediction 2: The straw that will break the back of a fragile financial system will be the global long…

Special Report

Following up from our inaugural U.S. Equity Market Indicators Report in early-August 2017, this week we introduce the second part in our Indicators series. In this Special Report we have drilled down to the ten GICS1 S&P 500 sectors (…

Highlights The global 6-month credit impulse is likely to turn up in the fourth quarter. This warrants profit-taking in some pro-defensive equity sector, regional, and country allocation... ...for example, in the 35 percent…

  Underweight Since downgrading the insurance group to underweight nearly two years ago, we have been on the lookout for signs the environment had at least moderated; this has not been the case. Pricing power has recently…

Special Report

Highlights China's policy headwinds have begun to recede, but Beijing is not riding to the rescue for emerging markets; While monetary policy has eased substantively, credit growth will be hampered by the government's…

Highlights Without a true banking union it is impossible to have a true monetary union. The result is a fragmented monetary policy. A fragmented monetary policy with an inflexibly rigid fiscal policy is a recipe for economic and…

Overweight The S&P investment bank and brokers index has been an excellent performer through the early days of the Q2 reporting season as results have generally been besting estimates and the outlook remains solid. Our…

Highlights FTSE100 = Overweight global Oil and Gas in pounds. Eurostoxx50 = Overweight global Banks in euros. Nikkei225 = Overweight global Industrials in yen. S&P500 = Overweight global Technology in dollars. Of these four…

Please note that our next publication will be a joint special report with BCA’s Geopolitical Service that will be published on Wednesday, August 1st instead of our usual Monday publishing schedule. Further, there will be no…

Overweight - Downgrade Alert We put the S&P banks index on downgrade alert in mid-May and removed it from the high-conviction overweight list for a relative gain of 6%, on the back of budding evidence that the bank/yield curve…