Results of the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey revealed a substantial tightening in credit standards for loans to firms and loans to households for house purchase in Q1. Higher perceptions of risk and lower risk tolerance are…
Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.
Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.
EUR/USD is trying to breach above 1.10. What is the balance of positive versus negative factors that would allow the euro to breakout?
The Eurozone economy’s marginal 0.1% q/q GDP growth in Q1 2023 confirms that economic conditions improved slightly at the start of the year. Although the GDP figure missed consensus expectations of a 0.2% q/q rise, it came…
In Section I, we discuss why the rally in stock prices over the past month reflects the soft-landing view, and why that is not a likely economic outcome. US inflation is slowing, but target inflation remains elusive. Meanwhile,…
As expected, Sweden’s Riksbank delivered a 50bp rate hike at its meeting on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate to 3.5%. Moreover, the central bank signaled that another hike is likely in June or September, though it…
Inflation is hot, but inflation expectations are not. We explain the answer to this apparent puzzle and discuss the investment implications. Plus we identify two commodities that are at imminent risk of reversal.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the downside in earnings over the remainder of the year creates a dangerous risk that can catalyze a sharp pullback at any moment. To protect themselves,…