Europe

It is easy to claim that the ECB is failing in light of today’s elevated inflation readings. Yet, the reality is more subtle and the ECB’s performance lays the ground for stronger growth ahead.

In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.

Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.