Labor markets are softening in most developed economies, as is usually the case in the lead-up to recessions. Our base case is that the global recession will begin in the second half of 2024, but we will be monitoring our MacroQuant…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ECB is the central bank that poses the lowest risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s and letting inflation expectations unanchor. One reason is the ECB’s…
Natural gas storage levels in the US and EU are sufficient to balance flowing supply and demand this winter, assuming normal weather. China continues to invest in domestic production, and to diversify supply sources to compensate…
As expected, Euro Area retail sales continued to decline on both a month-over-month and a year-over-year basis in September. The 0.3% m/m drop is slightly below expectations of -0.2% m/m while the 2.9% y/y decline is not as bad…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields will fall toward 2% as market-based inflation expectations dip. For now, the deceleration in Eurozone core CPI can be attributed to the…
The Eurozone’s inflation will continue to slow over the coming months. While this trend will help Bund prices, will it boost the appeal of European equities?
The FX G10 attractiveness model continues to favor the US dollar, but the tide could shift in the coming weeks. Currencies such as the NOK, CHF and even CAD have been rising in rankings in recent months. Using an aggregate of…
As expected, the Bank of England kept its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% at Thursday's MPC meeting with six members voting in favor of the decision and the remaining three preferring a 25bps rate increase. Governor Andrew…
The fundamental component of long-term inflation expectations has climbed to its highest level since 2008 in both the US and the euro area. This means that both the Fed and the ECB will need to engineer inflation to undershoot 2…
High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned.