Europe

While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct upon a major outbreak of geopolitical uncertainty.

Signs that we are entering the last phase of a bubble are building up. Can European equities benefit from a new tech mania?

Could a second wave of global inflation be underway? The latest inflation prints in the US and UK showed upside surprises, while there is evidence of increased price pressures in global manufacturing. Combined with the improvements seen in economic sentiment measures and leading economic indicators in the US and Europe, and potential upside risks to oil prices, we see a strong case for owning more inflation protection in global bond portfolios. Inflation-linked bonds look attractive in this environment, especially in the US.

In this Insight, we speculate on the outlook for the CHF.