Europe
The UK labor market remains far too tight to expect wage growth to slow to levels consistent with the Bank of England inflation target. A true recession with rising unemployment is needed to finally slay the UK inflation beast. 2024 rate cuts are off the table, with the central bank having to keep monetary policy tighter for longer than markets expect and the UK economy now rebounding. We recommend downgrading UK gilts to underweight in global bond portfolios, while also looking for opportunities to buy the British pound on pullbacks versus the euro, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona.
A German Recovery?
A…
Near-Term Upside Potential For Eurozone Stocks Vs US, But Bearish Cyclical Outlook…
Services PMIs in Europe Surprise to the Upside…
The Effect of Interest Rates on Euro Area Small Caps…
Downside Risk To Margins…
European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?
UK Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected…
Is The Tide Turning For UK Equities…
ZEW Expectations Reaches 26-Month High…