Mr. X is a long-time BCA client who visits our offices towards the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: What a year it has been.…
Highlights The FOMC statement was somewhat more hawkish than expected. The Fed is on course to raise rates two to three times next year. Trump's policy views are squarely bearish for bonds, but more mixed for stocks. Investors are…
Recommendation Allocation Highlights Growth was picking up before the election of President Trump. His election merely accelerates the rotation from monetary to fiscal policy. This is likely to cause yields to rise, the Fed to…
Highlights The valuation discount on Italian banks still seems insufficient for the sector's excess NPLs. We expect a better long-term buying opportunity sometime next year. Stay underweight the MIB and IBEX versus the…
Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get…
Highlights ECB Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) bought time for Euro Area inflation to sustainably move higher by extending the duration, and removing some of the self-imposed limits, on its bond buying program. The higher…