Highlights Beyond the healthcare vote and its implication for Trump's fiscal stimulus, other risks lurk in the background. Market complacency is at historical extremes but Chinese reflation is rapidly dissipating. The euro could…
Highlights Either go long Eurodollar / short Euribor June 2019 interest rate futures. Or long the U.S. 5-year T-bond / short German 5-year bund. Or long euro/dollar (though our preferred long euro expression is long euro/pound near…
Highlights Trump's agenda has not derailed ... at least not yet; Europe remains a red herring ... as the Dutch showed; Turkey cannot restart Europe's immigration crisis; Supply-side reforms are still likely in France; The…
Highlights U.S. Treasuries: The surprisingly positive response from financial markets to last week's Fed rate hike should force the Fed to quickly shift back to a hawkish bias. Maintain an underweight exposure to U.S. Treasuries,…
Highlights Once the Brexit starting gun is fired, the EU27's high-level guidelines and red lines will create more vulnerabilities and uncertainties for the U.K. than for the euro area. The BoE will be more boxed in than the ECB.…
Highlights Geopolitics will not spoil the stock rally yet; European election risks remain overstated; In China, look beyond the National Party Congress; China's reforms could re-launch in 2018 ... ... But India's reforms…
Highlights Fed: The Fed will deliver another rate hike tomorrow, but we do not expect a signal that a higher trajectory for the funds rate is necessary. The Fed wants to see higher inflation expectations and will remain as…