Highlights Yellen pointed out that the U.S. R-star is low but that it will rise as temporary depressing factors pass. The Fed is determined to push rates toward 3% over time. The euro area R-star is substantially lower than that of…

Highlights Coordinated Hawkishness: Central bankers are in the process of taking back the easier monetary policy that followed the deflationary 2014/15 oil shock. Bond yields still have more upside to catch up to the solid pace of…

Highlights EM equity breadth has moved into negative territory, DM-based excess liquidity measures are set to roll-over, and China-based liquidity measures are also weak. Individually, each of these factors are not enough to raise…

Highlights The rise in global bond yields has been largely "reflective" of stronger global growth rather than "restrictive." Stay cyclically overweight global equities. The Fed has more scope to raise rates than…

Highlights The euro area's structural growth prospects (adjusted for demographics) are no different to any other developed economy such as the U.K., U.S. or Japan. Liberated from the headwinds of its own policy errors, the euro…

Highlights Central Banks: The sharp sell-off in global bond markets last week was triggered by more upbeat comments on growth and inflation by several major central bankers, most notably ECB President Mario Draghi. ECB Tapering:…

Highlights Recommended Allocation  Risk assets have continued to outperform, despite soft inflation data and falling interest rates. Either inflation will pick up again, amid decent growth, and the Fed (and, to a degree, other…

Special Report

Feature Chart 1Global Growth Pick Up  As a whole, G10 economies have been in expansion for more than seven years now. Moreover, after a near-recessionary episode in late 2015 / early 2016, the global economy is on a renewed…

Highlights Economic Outlook: Global growth will remain strong over the next 12 months, but will start to slow in the second half of 2018, potentially setting the stage for a recession in 2019. Overall Strategy: Investors should…

Highlights Trade 1: An unwinding of the Trump reflation trade... has worked exactly as expected. Take profits and switch into Trade 5. Trade 2: Short pound/euro at €1.18 and simultaneously buy call options at €1.30... is up…