Highlights Washington must establish a "credible threat" if it is to convince Pyongyang that negotiations offer the superior outcome; The process of establishing such a credible threat is volatile; U.S. Treasurys, along…

Special Report

Highlights GFIS Portfolio: The GFIS model bond portfolio has lagged its benchmark index since inception last September and since our previous performance update in April. All of that underperformance can be accounted for this month,…

Highlights Duration: An environment characterized by strong global growth and a weak dollar is very bearish for U.S. bonds. According to our model, fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield is 2.6%. Stay at below-benchmark duration.…

Special Report

Feature Visions abound of a dystopia in which Artificial Intelligence (AI) obsoletes all human jobs. In these visions, mankind becomes a subservient sideshow in a world run by robots. But while such dystopian visions make excellent…

Highlights U.S. Treasuries: The downturn in U.S. inflation looks to be stabilizing, while the U.S. economy continues to churn along at an above-potential growth pace. Treasury yields are now at risk of a repricing of both inflation…

Highlights The bottom in the dollar will have to wait for clearer signs that U.S. inflation has hit a trough. DXY is unlikely to punch below its May 2016 low. We examine balance of payments dynamics across the G10. This analysis…

Highlights The neutral real rate of interest, R*, is low in most economies, and will only rise gradually over the coming years. Currency movements tend to dampen differences in neutral rates across countries. The fact that R* is higher…

Special Report

Feature This is the first of two Special Reports on Electric Vehicles. In this report, we will look at the current costs of ownership of a typical mass-market EV, including and excluding subsidies, versus a similar Internal Combustion…

Highlights The euro area's growth prospects, adjusted for population, are no different to any other major developed economy. If the euro area continues its recovery to just the mid-point of its long-term relative growth cycle…

Feature Recommended Allocation  When Central Banks Turn Hawkish It seems almost as though, when central bank governors gathered in Portugal for the ECB's annual confab in late June, they agreed to start sounding more hawkish…