Highlights EUR/USD will eventually drift up to the ECB calculated equilibrium range of 1.30-1.35. Tactical short NOK/AUD. Tactical long SEK/GBP. On a six month horizon, stay underweight Basic Materials and Financials and own some…
Highlights U.S. Treasury Curve: The U.S. Treasury curve has flattened to new cyclical lows as the market has moved to fully price in the Fed's interest rate forecasts. Inflation expectations must rise further for those…
Highlights The ECB admits that its policy is considerably more accommodative than it would be absent the need to integrate the weaker euro area economies. But a strategy designed to integrate some is alienating others, both within…
Highlights Trade wars have captured investors' imaginations, but slowing global growth is a more immediate risk for both asset prices and exchange rates. As reflationary forces ebb, slow global growth will help the dollar stage a…
Feature Japan's economic experience in the post bubble era is often described as a fate to avoid at all costs. We would like to turn this common notion on its head. Rather than something to avoid, Japan's post bubble…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. When the chartbook was last published in September 2017, the main message was that less accommodative monetary policy was required…
Highlights Recommended Allocation Due to the boost from U.S. fiscal stimulus, we do not expect recession until 2020. Despite some signs that growth is peaking, global economic fundamentals remain robust. Markets have wobbled…
Highlights Continue to underweight the most cyclical sectors - Banks, Basic Materials, and Energy. As predicted, global growth is losing steam. This implies that the Eurostoxx50 will struggle to outperform the S&P500. Continue…
Highlights The 2018 outlook for both economic growth and corporate profits remains constructive for risk assets, although evidence is gathering that global growth is peaking. Some measures of global activity related to capital…
Highlights Fixed Income Asset Allocation: Global growth indicators remain solid, while inflation pressures continue to build. Central banks will remain focused on those factors, and not news-driven market volatility spikes, until the…