Highlights Will A Rising U.S. Dollar Alter The Fed's Tightening Plans? U.S. economic growth appears to be accelerating, the labor market continues to tighten, core inflation is approaching the Fed's target and wage growth is…

Recommended Allocation  A Series Of Unfortunate Events Markets have taken a series of hits in recent months - sharp drops in emerging market currencies, a political crisis in Italy, and the ongoing trade war between the U.S.…

Highlights Italy is a live drama. However, both Italy and Brussels have constraints that should lead to a compromise on fiscal stimulus. Italy will not leave the euro in the foreseeable future, and the European Central Bank has little…

Dear Client, I will be visiting clients next week. Instead of our Weekly Report, we will be sending you a Special Report written by my colleagues Matt Gertken and Ray Park. The report addresses the North Korean situation and argues that…

Highlights The 10-year Italian BTP yield at 4% yield marks a 'line in the sand' at which the current drama could escalate into something considerably worse. The global 6-month credit impulse is now indisputably in a mini-…

Special Report

As interest rates rise, investors are looking for the leveraged pressure points in the global economy to identify the sectors most likely to show strain. We previously identified the U.S. corporate bond market as a definite candidate.…

Highlights The risk/reward balance for risk assets remains unappealing this month, even though our base-case outlook sees them outperforming cash and bonds over the next 6-12 months. The number of items that could take equity markets…

Special Report

Highlights Trade war between China and U.S. is back on; President Trump is politically constrained from making a quick deal with China; Italian uncertainty will last through the summer and beyond; But bond market will eventually…

Highlights In this Weekly Report, we review all of the individual trades in our Tactical Overlay portfolio. These are positions that are intended to complement our strategic Model Bond Portfolio, typically with shorter holding periods…

Highlights Last year's broad-based global growth recovery has given way to slower growth and increasing differentiation in growth rates across economies. The U.S. has gone from laggard to leader in the global growth horse race,…