Highlights If the EU27 pours cold water on Theresa May's much-hyped Brexit proposals, the immediate uncertainty around Brexit would increase. But a longer-term outcome that keeps the U.K. either in a protracted transition to exit…
Recommended Allocation Risks to equities and credit are now evenly balanced. We downgrade both to neutral. We are worried that desynchronized growth will further push up the dollar, damaging emerging markets, especially since U.…
Highlights Macro Outlook: Global growth is decelerating and the composition of that growth is shifting back towards the United States. Policy backdrop: The specter of trade wars represents a real and immediate threat to risk assets.…
Highlights We have been cautious on asset allocation on a tactical (3-month) horizon for two months. The backdrop has deteriorated enough that we believe that caution is now warranted beyond a tactical horizon. Trim exposure to global…
Highlights Wage inflation in the EU28 is running at exactly the same rate as in the U.S. In the euro area, it is only modestly lower. As the current business cycle completes, the euro area versus U.S. bond yield spread will narrow,…
NOTE: We will not be publishing a report next week. The next Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report will be published on Tuesday, July 10th. Highlights Global Corporates: The clash between monetary policy and the markets that we…
Highlights Short oil and gas versus financials. Stick with underweights in the classically cyclical sectors. Downgrade the FTSE100 to neutral. Overweight France, Ireland, Switzerland and Denmark. Underweight Italy, Spain, Sweden…
Highlights BCA's Geopolitical Power Index (GPI) confirms that we live in a multipolar world; Most of President Trump's policies are designed to strike out against this structural reality; Trade war with China is real and…