Feature Half Way Back Since BCA went overweight global equities in late December, the MSCI ACWI index has rallied by 8% and the S&P 500 is back to only 8% off its September historical high. So far, this has been little more than a…
Highlights Global equity markets have managed to recoup some of last year’s plunge since we upgraded stocks to overweight in late December. The equity rally has been tentative, however, and so far feels more like a technical…
Highlights The main headwinds to euro area growth in 2018 are easing in 2019, at least in part and for the time being. The two main tail-risks are a messy Brexit and financial market volatility, but these are not our central case.…
For IG, the gap between domestic and foreign issuers continues to widen, with the former worsening at the margin. For domestic issuers, interest and debt coverage has improved but operating margins and return on capital remain…
All the components of the U.K. CHM have contributed to this worsening trend. Even short-term liquidity, which had been in a powerful uptrend for almost a decade, has started to roll over. The cause for this deterioration can…
Highlights We recently upgraded our recommended investment stance on global corporate bonds to overweight on a tactical (3 to 6 months) basis.1 Feature That change was mostly based on our view that global financial conditions had…
Highlights Excess dollar liquidity is still deteriorating. The U.S. economy’s robustness suggests this trend will continue. Elevated EM-dollar debt and declining dollar liquidity point to lower global growth and a stronger…
The January manufacturing PMI data, released today, highlight that the idiosyncratic factors that depressed economic activity in the fourth quarter are not yet abating on the whole. Even the services PMI fell in the month. These…
Highlights The Eurostoxx600’s short bursts of outperformance require either global technology to underperform or the euro to underperform. EM’s short bursts of outperformance usually coincide with the global healthcare…
Highlights After this week’s drama, the Brexit political process remains extremely complex, but the probability of a hard Brexit is still below 10%. No easy compromise will come through as Brexit suffers a fundamental…