Highlights We would fade fears of an “earnings recession.” EPS growth should increase during the remainder of this year. While high debt burdens around the world may exacerbate deflationary pressures by restraining spending…
Highlights Stay tactically overweight to equities for the time being. Close the overweight to industrial commodities versus equities. The financials, basic resources, and industrials equity sectors can continue to outperform for a…
According to the Riskbank Resources Utilization Indicator, the Swedish economy is at full capacity, pointing toward growing inflationary pressure. In fact, inflation is already at target, yet real rates are deeply negative and the…
Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on…
By curtailing its forecasts, the BoE acknowledged reality: The British economy is slowing. Like other central banks around the world, the BoE recognized the deterioration in global trade as a key headwind. However, it also…
Highlights Since 2008, no developed economy central bank has been able to hike interest rates sequentially by more than 2 percent before needing to take a breather… and then reverse course. The current vulnerability to further…
Our diffusion indices show that the vast majority of euro area countries are now suffering slowing real GDP growth and falling PMIs, flashing levels normally recorded during recessions. Yet the actual pullbacks in real GDP growth…
Highlights So What? The late-cycle rally faces non-trivial political hurdles. Why? The rally is based on a too-sanguine view of the Fed, China, and the trade war. Other issues – like Brexit and the U.S. border showdown…
Highlights Fed Policy: The Fed’s move to a more dovish posture is positive for global risk assets in the near-term. This is setting up for a revival of volatility later in 2019, however, with U.S. growth unlikely to slow enough…