Given how loose monetary conditions already are, it makes sense for the ECB to restart the Asset Purchase Program (APP). This option is the most direct way for the ECB to directly lower the cost of borrowing for European…
Highlights Fed: The Fed will deliver a 25bp rate cut this week, despite a firmer tone to recent U.S. economic and inflation data, and the door will be left open to an additional “insurance” cut in September. ECB: The ECB…
In a range of -1 to 2 percent, inflation expectations become insensitive to monetary policy. So in their obsession to achieve two point zero, central banks have pushed harder and harder on a piece of string. As a result, the…
While the Conservatives and the U.K. have a new leader, as far as Brexit is concerned, plus ça change plus c’est la même chose. A new leader does not change the tight parliamentary arithmetic in which the…
Highlights So What? Key geopolitical risks remain unresolved and most of the improvements are transitory. Maintain a cautious tactical stance toward risk assets. Why? U.S.-China relations remain the preeminent geopolitical risk to…
In its statement this morning, the ECB was very clear: rates will be cut next September. Mario Draghi’s press conference reinforced this message. The ECB President highlighted that despite a low recession risk, the outlook…
Highlights Global inflation will slow further, allowing central banks to ease policy. Liquidity indicators will have more upside as monetary policy will remain accommodative. Widening fiscal deficits, easing Chinese credit trends and…
Highlights As central banks continue to push on a string for 2 percent inflation, it will underpin the valuation of equities and other risk-assets. So long as the global 10-year bond yield remains well below 2.5 percent, equity market…
The EUR/CAD has reached an important technical level, and either a major breakdown or a powerful bounce will follow. With Canadian data firing on all cylinders and the euro area in the depths of a manufacturing slowdown, the…
Dear Clients, In addition to this Weekly Report, you will also be getting a Special Report authored by some of our top strategists on global growth. The manufacturing recession that began in early 2018 has lasted longer than most…