Highlights 2019 was a good year for our constraint-based method of political analysis. Trump was impeached, the trade war escalated, and China (modestly) stimulated – all as predicted. Nevertheless Trump caught us by surprise…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Wednesday, December 18th at 10:00 AM EST, where I will discuss the major investment themes and views I see playing out for 2020. This will be…
The 2019 UK General Election result offers four possible medium-term outcomes for UK exposed investments: Conservatives win 340 seats or more: This comfortable majority for the Conservatives is medium-term positive for UK exposed…
We remain oil bulls on the back of a pickup in global demand and OPEC production discipline. This should lead to the outperformance of energy stocks, supporting inflows into Norway. Interest rate differentials continue to…
If Chinese growth can stabalize, then Europe’s economy can recover and European political risk will be a “red herring” in 2020, as it was in 2019. Euro Area break-up risk has subsided after a series of…
Since 2015, American inflation has outperformed European inflation for one reason: owner equivalent rents have surged by almost 20 percent relative to other prices. The historic evidence suggests that such a pace of…
Highlights Structurally overweight US T-bonds versus core European bonds. Our preferred expression is long T-bonds versus Swiss bonds. US yields can fall a lot more than European yields, and European yields can rise a lot more than US…
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has seen a tremendous rally in opinion polls, although it has stalled at a level comparable to its peak ahead of the last election in June 2017. Another hung parliament or…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of November 29, 2019. The model has not made any directional change in its allocations this month. In terms of magnitude,…