Highlights We conservatively estimate lost output from shutdowns and social distancing will equal $10 trillion, and we expect the jobs market to be permanently scarred. Inflation, even at 2 percent, is a pipe dream, which leads to…
Sweden’s strategy to deal with the COVID-19 crisis has been controversial. While many dispute its health implication, its impact on the Swedish economy has been positive. Despite the profound pro-cyclicality of Sweden…
When comparing inflation between the US and the euro area, investors must make a crucial adjustment. US core CPI includes a shelter component that is absent in the European gauge. Removing the shelter component reveals that US…
In a webcast this Friday I will be joined by our Chief US Equity Strategist, Anastasios Avgeriou to debate ‘Sectors To Own, And Sectors To Avoid In The Post-Covid World’. Today’s report preludes five of the points…
Germany’s April manufacturing orders were nothing short of atrocious. They bore the brunt of the pain created by the German shutdowns and the global recession. Overall orders contracted 36.7% on an annual basis, domestic…
Highlights The dollar is likely to churn on recent weakness before a cyclical bear market fully unfolds. The reason is that the economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainty, both politically and economically. We continue to…
BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service recommends that investors stay overweight animal care using the ETF ticker, appropriately named, PAWZ. The shift to working from home has generated a puppy boom. The…
Yesterday, the ECB pleasantly surprised market participants by announcing an additional EUR600 billion of purchases and extending the program to at least June 2021. Investors expected only a further EUR500 billion in buying.…
Highlights Social distancing must persist to prevent dangerous super-spreading of COVID-19. The jobs recovery will be much weaker than the output recovery, because the sectors most hurt by social distancing have a very high labour…
The Swedish krona remains one of our Foreign Exchange Strategy team’s preferred G-10 currencies. The real trade-weighted SEK stands well below its long-term fair value model. Moreover, the SEK trades 13.4% and 36.3%…