Highlights Global Growth & Inflation: An increasing number of growth indicators worldwide are tracing out a “v”-shaped pattern from the COVID-19 recession. However, high unemployment and a lack of inflationary pressure…
German inflation came in yesterday at +0.8%, versus a decline of -0.3% in Spain. In a general sense, inflation in Germany has been outperforming that in the periphery for a few months now. This is a sea change from the general…
In May, the European M3 money supply growth accelerated to 8.9% from 8.3%. Broad money growth is slower in Europe than in the US, but bank intermediation plays a larger role in the allocation of credit in the Eurozone than it…
Highlights The economic performance of Sweden, which did not have a lockdown, has been almost as bad as Denmark, which did have a lockdown. This proves that the current recession is not ‘man-made’, it is ‘pandemic-…
Highlights The cyclical rally in stocks is not over, but the S&P 500 will churn between 2800 and 3200 this summer. Supportive policy, robust household balance sheets and budding economic growth have put a floor under global…
The European economy has room to catch up to the US. The gap between the euro area and the US economic surprise index lingers near all-time lows. While the European surprise index is recovering, it lags well behind the US…
The pound historically is a pro-cyclical currency. The UK sports a current account deficit of 3.74% of GDP. Funding such a large deficit is easier when global liquidity is plentiful, when global growth is strong, and when risk…