Yesterday, Matteo Renzi pulled out of the center-left coalition currently governing Italy. The former PM believes he can improve his party’s standing in parliament. The Conte government will try to create a new…
Highlights Markets largely ignored the uproar at the US Capitol on January 6 because the transfer of power was not in question. Democratic control over the Senate, after two upsets in the Georgia runoff, is the bigger signal. US…
The Swedish PMIs have been extraordinarily strong in December, jumping near 65, or levels normally associated with maximum output growth for the manufacturing sector. Historically, the momentum in the Swedish krona relative to…
After bottoming in Q4, the German DAX is rallying and outperforming the Euro Stoxx 50 in the process. While the near-term is muddled by the pandemic’s resurgence, the global manufacturing recovery this year will ultimately…
Highlights The ongoing pandemic underscores the need for fiscal and monetary policymakers to continue to provide a reflationary “bridge” until vaccination ends the threat to the health care system. The pending deal being…
Over the next two weeks, we will focus on the following key items: On December 22, December's Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey: This release will help gauge consumer sentiment heading into the holidays and the new…
December’s flash Markit PMIs sent a positive signal, with both the manufacturing and services sectors showing resilience. The composite index for the Eurozone rose to 49.8, a hair below expansionary territory, and overshot…
Empirically, the current yield to maturity gives a robust sense of the returns of 30-year German government bonds over the coming five years. At the present juncture, the yield of -0.2% suggests that over the next five years, the…
The Eurozone’ M1 money supply is expanding at a 14% annual pace, its fastest rate since 1999. On the European continent, banks represent a much larger share of credit origination than they do in the US. Due to this lack of…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the European democracies have passed a major “stress test” over the past decade. Europe and the euro will benefit from the change of power in Washington…