Our Geopolitical Strategy team reviewed possible outcomes for Sunday's German election as the far-right is playing an expanding role in mainstream German politics. German voters have shifted to the right, weakening the ruling…
We introduce a systematic approach to investing based on the combination of three macroeconomic variables: economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises.
The February ZEW index for Germany and the eurozone beat estimates, with the expectations component rising to 26.0 from 10.3 a month prior. The current situation assessment also improved, although it remains deeply negative at -88.5…
While the main Q1 2025 theme has been “America First”, the year-to-date market story has been more nuanced. “America First” would suggest an outperformance of US assets, but it is European assets that have started the year on a…
Our European strategists look at European equities after they garnered attention due to their low valuations. European equities are attracting interest primarily due to low valuations rather than strong growth expectations. Key…
President Trump is negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine. This will be a marginal headwind to some commodities which benefitted from the conflict like natural gas and wheat, and will be a marginal tailwind for European assets,…
