Euro Area inflation surprised to the upside in August. Headline CPI accelerated from 2.2% y/y in July to a near-decade high of 3.0% y/y. This translated to a month-on-month acceleration to 0.4% - above the expected 0.2% and July…
The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer collapsed 17.4 points to 113.5 in August versus an anticipated 125.9. August's print marks the lowest level since February. The KOF barometer is an excellent leading indicator of the Swiss…
Highlights We are reviewing our recommendations. We are also introducing recommendation tables to monitor these positions. Overall, our main recommendations have generated alpha and have a positive batting average. Feature The end…
The spread of the Delta variant in the US has had a clear impact on economic confidence measures like the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which fell sharply in the early August readings. In the euro area, where…
Highlights The decline in the US and UK July services PMIs underscores that pandemic control measures are not the only manner by which COVID-19 impacts the services sector of the economy. A slowdown in Q3 growth in advanced economies…
The German IFO reveals that businesses continue to pare back optimism. The headline index fell 1.3 points to 99.4 on the back of a greater than expected 3.5-point decline in expectations. Meanwhile, the current assessment…
Germany's Q2 GDP was revised up to 1.6% q/q versus the initial estimate of 1.5% q/q. The latest figure reduces the GDP gap relative to Q4 2019 to 3.2%. The details of the release reveal that while government spending and…
The euro peaked at 1.23 in January this year and is making fresh lows. With speculators net long EUR/USD going into 2021, many have been caught offside in the recent downdraft. The key question therefore is whether the euro…
UK retail sales surprised to the downside in July. The headline number fell 2.5% m/m versus an anticipated 0.2% increase. Sales excluding auto fuel also disappointed, dropping 2.4% m/m. Two factors are likely behind this…