Thursday's ECB meeting concluded with a decision to "moderately" reduce the pace of asset purchases under the PEPP in the final quarter of 2021. The decision to pare back the pace of purchases is in line with the ECB's…
Highlights The US Climate Prediction Center gives ~ 70% odds another La Niña will form in the August – October interval and will continue through winter 2021-22. This will be a second-year La Niña if it forms, and…
BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service expects the ECB to announce a one-off return to the pre-Q2 2021 level of asset purchases on Thursday, couched in a very dovish forward guidance. The ECB faces three key…
Highlights A trio of ECB hawks raised the prospect of an ECB taper. In the past, the current set of economic conditions in the Euro Area would have prompted the ECB to tighten policy. A potential economic deceleration this fall, the…
Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical…
Eurozone producer prices surged 12.1% y/y in July, exceeding consensus forecasts. Similarly, the month-on-month print jumped to 2.3% versus expectations of a 0.4 percentage point rise to 1.8%. The upside surprises come amid…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…
BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service maintains a favorable outlook for European banks over the tactical and cyclical investment horizons. Over a tactical investment horizon, the team recommends European…
Germany's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have jumped ahead of Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc and are now leading in opinion polling for the upcoming September 26…