UK retail sales dropped in September, with the measures including fuel as well as excluding fuel falling more than expected. Both the month-on-month series as well as the year-on-year ones declined. Meanwhile, the GfK Consumer…
European high-yield corporate bond spreads have been widening over the past four weeks, likely because of inflation fears spurred by rising energy prices and input prices. Our 12-month breakeven spread metric, which measures…
Highlights Energy Prices & Bond Yields: Surging energy prices are lifting inflation expectations in the US and Europe, while at the same time dampening consumer confidence amid diminished perceptions of real purchasing power. These…
Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a EUR30 billion investment plan aimed at supporting and fostering industrial and tech “champions of the future.” This new plan comes on top of the EUR100 billion…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy, conditions are falling in place for the countertrend decline in EUR/USD to end soon. The big fundamental forces point to a firmer euro on an 18- to 24-month basis…
Over the weekend, commentary by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey raised the likelihood that the central bank will raise the Bank Rate before year-end. Bailey highlighted that inflationary pressures will force the BoE to act…
Dear Client, There will be no weekly report next week. Instead, we will host our quarterly webcast on Tuesday, October 26 for the US and EMEA regions and Wednesday, October 27 for the Asia Pacific region. We will resume our regular…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the pound could relapse versus other G10 currencies in the near term. However, it is likely to fare well over a cyclical horizon. Their 12-month target for GBP/USD…
Highlights UK GDP is on track to overtake pre-pandemic levels. This will strengthen the case for the BoE to tighten monetary policy. That said, markets are aggressively pricing in a hawkish BoE. This creates room for near-term…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service initiated a new tactical trade to position for more persistent ECB dovishness and a more hawkish Fed. The team continues to see no reason for the ECB to follow the Fed’s path…