Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle,…
Highlights Data from the UK revealed it is tantalizingly close to declaring COVID-19 an endemic virus, indicating Britain likely will exit the pandemic ahead of other states soon. The UK is a bellwether market regarding its public-…
The Citigroup US economic surprise index peaked in late-November and has rolled over since then. It is now just barely in positive territory. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economic surprise index bottomed in mid-October and has been on…
Highlights 2022 Key Views & Allocations: Translating our 2022 global fixed income Key Views into recommended positioning within our model bond portfolio results in the following conclusions to begin the year. Target a moderate…
The Sentix Economic Index sent a positive signal about investor morale in the Eurozone. The overall index increased by 1.4 points to 14.9, surprising expectations of a move lower to 13. The improvement reflects a 3-point rise in…
Highlights European economic activity will suffer in Q1 from both the Omicron wave and elevated natural gas prices. The Omicron wave will fade quickly and its impact on growth will be short lived. The biggest economic risk related to…
Euro Area CPI inflation rose 0.1 percentage points to a fresh record high of 5.0% y/y in December – above the anticipated 4.8%. On a monthly basis, headline inflation was steady at 0.4%. Energy prices – which were up…
Highlights Global equities are poised to deliver mid-to-high single-digit returns this year, with the outlook turning bleaker in 2023 and beyond. Non-US markets are likely to outperform. We examine the four pillars that have…
Final Markit PMIs for December confirm the flash estimates’ message that economic activity moderated in December. In the US, the composite PMI eased slightly to 57 from 57.2. The Eurozone composite index fell more sharply…
We have entered a new phase of the cycle, with central banks in most developed markets turning more hawkish (the Bank of England surprisingly hiking in December, and the Fed signaling three rate hikes for 2022). How much does…