Executive Summary Upgrade Global Duration Exposure To Neutral The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a stagflationary shock that comes at a difficult time for developed market central banks that have been laying the groundwork…
Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that Italian bonds and European banks are attractive. The near-term outlook for European assets remains extremely murky. Not only is a war in Ukraine a major…
UK consumer sentiment is falling rapidly. The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer, which peaked at -7 last July, dropped 7 points to a 13-month low of -26 in February. Elevated inflation, higher taxes, and rising interest rates are…
Executive Summary Stronger Capex Than Last Decade The fog of war continues, but the worst potential outcome for the market—a freeze of Russian energy exports to Europe—has been avoided. Energy inflation is…
Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we sent you a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy service, highlighting the risk from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Kind regards, Chester Executive Summary The Ukraine…
European risk assets sold off and commodities rallied on Thursday on news that Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine that includes attacks on the capital Kyiv and dozens of other Ukrainian cities. President Putin’s goal is…
Executive Summary Copper Demand Follows GDP European copper demand will increase on the back of still-accommodative monetary policy, coupled with a loosening of COVID-19-related gathering and mobility restrictions as the…
Even though the Eurozone economy is more exposed to potential negative ramifications from the deterioration in Russia’s relationship with the West, Euro Area equities have been passively outperforming US ones since mid-…
The German Ifo survey for February corroborates the upbeat signal from the Eurozone Flash PMIs, highlighting that the recent soft patch does not reflect underlying economic weakness. The Business Climate Index increased from…