The ECB delivered a hawkish surprise on Thursday. It announced a faster exit from its APP bond-buying plan. Monthly net purchases will decline from EUR 40 billion to EUR 30 billion in May and to EUR 20 billion in June. Net…
Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As…
Executive Summary Euro Natgas Soars; LME Nickel Squeezed Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak's threat to halt shipmentsof natgas on Nord Stream 1 to Europe lifted European gas prices 25% overnight, and will…
Executive Summary Will The War Stall The Expected Downturn In Inflation This Year? The Russia/Ukraine conflict is impacting financial markets across numerous channels – uncertainty, risk aversion, growth expectations…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should keep hedging European assets via short EUR/CHF and short EUR/JPY. The main driver of the underperformance of European assets relative to…
The Sentix Economic Index reveals that the conflict in Ukraine is denting investor morale in the Eurozone. The overall index collapsed by 23.6 points in March to a 16-month low of -7. In particular, the Expectations index…
Executive Summary US Can Do Without Russia's Oil, EU, NATO … Not So Much The US will ban Russian oil imports shortly. This is not as big a deal markets had feared over the weekend, when news of a possible ban of…
The Norwegian economy will stand to benefit from renewed investment in energy. The new Johan Sverdrup oil and gas discovery especially marks a turnaround in capital spending. According to the Norges Bank, real petroleum…
Executive Summary Nuclear Worries Take Center Stage Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything less would be seen as a defeat for him. Assuming he succeeds, and it is far…