According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European cyclicals remain vulnerable as they have not reached the kind of valuation discount necessary to compensate investors for weaker growth and tighter…
Dear Client, Next week, there will not be a written European Investment Strategy report; instead we will host a Webcast on April 26 with Chester Ntonifor, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategist. Regards, Mathieu Savary Executive…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Currency And Interest Rates: On A Collision Course? The dip in the Swedish krona has priced in a recession in the domestic economy. If a…
As expected, the ECB did not announce any changes to its policy at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday. Instead, it highlighted that elevated uncertainty requires flexibility, gradualism and optionality in its conduct of…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…
Results from the Zew Financial Market Survey show German investor morale deteriorated further in April. Both the expectations and current situation components declined, albeit by less than consensus estimate. Notably, the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields can rise above 2% without causing a public finance crisis in Italy. How high can yields rise in the Eurozone before Italy experiences…
Results of the first round of the French presidential election show France’s centrist President Emmanuel Macron ahead with 28% of the votes, while far-right challenger Marine Le Pen captured second place with 23% of the…
Executive Summary From Net Borrower To Net Lenders Yields are rising across Europe. Peripheral spreads are unlikely to experience the same violent widening as last decade. Europe now has a buyer of last resort. Italy and…