Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Sentiment On Sterling Is Depressed The pound will suffer in the short term, setting the stage for a coiled-spring rebound. Cable is extremely…
Executive Summary Crude Oil Prices Will Remain High The EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil imports will tighten global crude oil and refined-product markets further. Pipeline imports are due to phase out by year-end.…
GBP/USD has been strengthening over the past three weeks after hitting a two-year low of 1.22 on May 12. Does this mark the beginning of a more sustainable rally? Cable faces crosscurrents over the near term. On the one…
Executive Summary Investors face a dilemma. The faster that inflation comes down, the better it will be for valuations via a stronger rally in the bond price. But if a collapse in inflation requires a sharp deceleration in growth, the…
Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil The EU imposed an embargo on 90% of Russian oil imports, which will provoke retaliation. Russia will squeeze Europe’s economy ahead of critical negotiations over the coming 6-…
On Monday, EU leaders agreed to a sixth round of sanctions on Russia which includes a partial embargo on oil imports that will take full effect by the end of the year. The ban applies to crude oil and petroleum products delivered…
The EU agreement to embargo oil imports from Russia (see Market Focus) marks an escalation of economic warfare between Russia and the West. It raises the odds that Moscow will retaliate by incrementally cutting off its natural…
German HICP rose from 7.8% y/y to 8.7% y/y in May, exceeding expectations of 8.1% y/y. Accelerating goods prices led the increase, while services inflation eased in May. Notably, energy and food prices surged 38.3% y/y and 11.1%…
Executive Summary Inflationary Pressures To Fade The biggest problem for the European economy is surging inflation. Inflation has eroded household real disposable income and is hurting consumption. Inflation is set to…