Germany’s October Ifo survey was mixed, with better expectations but weaker current conditions, underscoring a fragile European outlook. The headline Business Climate index rose above estimates to 88.4 from 87.7. The improvement came…
The October ZEW survey sent a mixed signal on near-term European growth, confirming limited growth momentum. Euro area growth expectations fell to 22.7 from 26.1, while German expectations missed estimates but rose slightly to 39.3…
The euro’s strong performance this year remains underpinned by structural forces, but near-term headwinds are starting to emerge, arguing for patience in adding exposure.The euro’s sharp 10% appreciation against the Chinese yuan this…
Despite concerns about fiscal sustainability, a rise in term premia, and attacks on central bank independence, monetary policy remains the primary driver of bond markets. In our Q3 Review & Outlook, we update our views and…
Eurosceptic billionaire Andrej Babis and his populist ANO party won the Czech parliamentary elections, securing 40% of the seats, short of an outright majority. The outcome was broadly in line with expectations but was viewed…
Our DM strategists recommend regional bond overweights in the UK, Canada, and Sweden, and express policy divergence through tactical FX trades: long USD, underweight GBP and SEK, and long JPY vs. EUR. Most G10 central banks are…
Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.
September flash PMIs show slowing global momentum, reinforcing US equity outperformance and underweights in industrial metals. The US composite slipped to 53.6 from 54.6, led by weaker manufacturing. Europe was mixed: Services…
European sentiment indicators weakened again in August and September, reinforcing tactical US outperformance. While the September flash consumer confidence print beat expectations, it is still sluggish. Surveys such as Sentix and ZEW…
One year in, the EU is progressing slowly in implementing Mario Draghi's recommendations to restore Europe’s competitiveness. The lack of progress is due more to the various pushbacks from European capitals and the lack of proper…