Euro Area

Highlights Slowing global money growth, export orders, and a downgrade in earnings revisions of cyclical relative to defensive equities points to a mild slowdown in non-U.S. growth. This slowdown is not worrisome, but could become so if the U.S. dollar rallies significantly. This risk should be kept in mind by investors. Short AUD/USD at 0.79 ¢. EUR/USD is trading at a premium and is over-owned. Conditions are emerging for investors to upgrade their view of the Fed relative to the ECB. EUR/USD has downside risk. Feature Chart I-1Global Growth Is Booming The world economy is on a roll. Nearly all of the world's PMI indexes are in expansionary territory, suggesting we are experiencing a rare global synchronized expansion. A key bellwether of global trade, Korean exports, are surging at a 35% annual rate, confirming that the global economy is very strong (Chart I-1). When all looks great, it is the ideal time to wonder what could go wrong. At this point, the greatest risk to this global expansion may be the dollar. A strengthening dollar would tighten global financial conditions, especially for EM borrowers, and exacerbate the impact of yellow flags that have already emerged. Yellow Flags Investors are in an ebullient mood these days, and for good reason: global growth is strong, and global policy is still very accommodative, even if some central banks have begun removing support for their economies. However, three yellow flags have emerged that in our view warrant some caution. To be clear, these are not grave signs and we do not foresee either a U.S. or a global recession until late 2019 at the earliest. With this in mind, what are the worrying signs that investors should monitor right now? The first yellow flag comes from global money supply growth. Narrow money has decelerated from a 12% annual growth rate to 9% today. Historically, this has been a leading indicator of global industrial production, global export growth and commodity prices (Chart I-2). While the surge in money growth in 2016 and 2017 was a key reason behind the rebound in global economic activity, especially outside the U.S., its recent slowdown points to an end of the economic upswing, though admittedly not toward a cataclysm. The second yellow flag comes from the U.S. ISM release. While the general tone of the report remains extremely positive, the export component has been in a downtrend since June. The key determinant of export growth for any country tends to be the vigor of its trading partners. Hence, it is not surprising that softness in the export component of the U.S. ISM manufacturing survey tends to be associated with weakening global trade and industrial activity (Chart I-3). The third yellow flag comes from earnings revisions. The earnings revision ratios of cyclical relative to defensive equities in the U.S. and globally have sharply rolled over. While still in positive territory, this development has historically been an early signal that improvements in global growth metrics are ebbing, a signal being flashed today (Chart I-4). Chart I-2Money And Global Growth: ##br##From Tailwind To Headwind Chart I-3A Blemish In An Otherwise##br## Bright Picture Chart I-4EPS Revisions: Cyclicals Have Turned ##br##Vis-A-Vis Defensives Bottom Line: The global economy is experiencing a synchronized upswing, which has left investors in an ebullient mood. However, slowing global money growth, ebbing export sentiment and weakening earnings revisions for cyclical relative to defensive equities suggest this broad-based upswing has reached its zenith. While a mild deceleration is likely to materialize soon, these indicators constitute yellow flags, not red ones. Conditions are still not in place to expect a major global growth slowdown. The Dollar Holds The Key While the factors above point to a mild slowdown, they do not yet indicate a dearth of growth that could prompt panic among investors, especially in the EM space. For this scenario to become reality, another ingredient is needed. In our view, this ingredient is a strong dollar. To begin with, the relationship between global growth and the dollar is well known in the investor community. When global growth is strong and broad-based, the dollar depreciates; when global growth is weak, the dollar appreciates (Chart I-5). The U.S. is a relatively closed economy, and is less exposed to global growth developments than the euro area, Japan or commodities producers (Chart I-6). Thus, when the global economy is in an upswing, the U.S. garners a smaller dividend than the rest of the world. Conversely, when the global economy hits a soft patch, the U.S. suffers less. Chart I-5Strong Global Growth Coincident ##br##With A Weak Dollar Chart I-6The U.S. Is Less Exposed ##br##To Global Growth Factors But the chain of causation is not only from growth to the dollar. The trend in the dollar also affects the trend in global growth. This is because in aggregate, the world remains short the dollar. According to the BIS, there is $27 trillion dollars of foreign-currency liabilities in the world, $14 trillion of which is denominated in U.S. dollars, with an extremely large proportion issued by EM borrowers. When the dollar weakens, the cost of borrowing among companies and banks that finance themselves in USD decreases, incentivizing further borrowing. This eases global liquidity conditions and decreases the cost of financing global trade, leading to increased economic activity and profits as well as expanding global capex. Meanwhile, when the dollar rises, the balance sheet of those foreign firms and governments that have borrowed in U.S. dollars becomes increasingly illiquid, resulting in strong headwinds for additional borrowing, curtailing economic activity, profits and capex. This explains why the dollar and commodities prices, the latter being extremely sensitive to growth and global capex, have displayed such a strong negative relationship over different time periods (Chart I-7). Chart I-7Rising USD Equals Declining Liquidity And Declining Commodity Prices Thanks to these dynamics, the weakness in the dollar this year has been a major boost to growth for the global economy. As Chart I-8 illustrates, the large easing in EM financial conditions was indeed related to the U.S. dollar's weakness. Therefore, as growth momentum could be peaking, a period of renewed strength in the greenback might inflict further damage to a key buttress of EM growth. Moreover, this time around, Chinese policymakers are unlikely to come to the rescue of the global economy as they did in 2015 and 2016. Back then, China was experiencing a deflationary spiral: producer prices were contracting at a 6% annual pace, profits were in free fall and outflows were growing exponentially. The People's bank of China and the central government pulled all the stops, increasing lending and fiscal expenditures and tightening capital controls. Monetary conditions eased massively (Chart I-9). Chart I-8The Falling Dollar Supported Global Growth Chart I-9Tightening Chinese Monetary Conditions Last weekend, the PBoC announced targeted cuts to reserve requirement ratios for banks extending lending to small companies. According to our China Investment Strategy sister publication, this is not a major easing.1 Instead, these are targeted measures aimed at helping small firms that are currently dependent on the predatory lending rates available in the shadow banking sector. Meanwhile, access to credit by large state-owned enterprises and the real estate sector will continue to be slowly curtailed. The mutation of deflation into inflation and the recovery of profit growth imply that China does not currently need the same shot to the arm that it did in 2015 and 2016. Thus, it is unlikely the country will initiate another round of massive credit easing that will boost investment by SOEs and the construction sector, the two main sources of capex and commodities demand. In an environment where global money growth has rolled over and where China is unlikely to press on the gas pedal as hard as it did two years ago, a strong dollar would thus have a nefarious impact on global financial conditions, global growth, and, in turn, EM currencies and commodities currencies. While we remain very negative on the yen for now, the Japanese currency could benefit from a meaningful slowdown in international growth, as such a slowdown would likely exert downward pressure on global bond yields, including in the U.S. Obviously, the rally in the USD will have to be much more pronounced than what has been experienced in the past month before its negative impact on growth begins to be felt in bond yields and the yen. Thus, we remain long USD/JPY for now. The AUD could prove to be a key victim of the developments highlighted above. The AUD is highly levered to global growth and EM financial conditions. Moreover, it is now very expensive on a long-term basis, having overshot terms of trade by a very significant margin (Chart I-10). Adding to the vulnerability in the Aussie, the Australian economy has been incapable of generating any inflationary pressures. The output gap remains very deep, the level of underemployment is still at a 37-year high, and wages continue to hover near record lows, limiting the capacity of the Reserve Bank of Australia to tilt to a hawkish stance (Chart I-11). Yet, investors expect rates to be 42 basis points higher 12 months from now. Finally, speculators are currently very long the AUD. Thus, we will use any rebound above 0.79 to short the AUD/USD, setting a limit-sell at this level with a target at 0.73. Chart I-10The AUD Is Vulnerable Chart I-11Litle Inflationary Pressures In Australia Bottom Line: While the three yellow flags highlighted do not represent a terminal danger to global growth, a stronger dollar at the hands of tightening global financial conditions, especially in EM economies, would be a much bigger threat to the global economy. We do anticipate the dollar to strengthen over the coming 12 months, but it will take a significant move before the USD puts enough of a brake on global growth to hurt global yields. We therefore remain positive on the USD/JPY. However, with this risk lurking in the background, we are implementing a short position on the AUD, a currency that is both expensive and over-owned, and underpinned by an economy full of slack. An Update On EUR/USD We continue to expect some downside to EUR/USD over the remainder of the year. As we have already highlighted, the euro has greatly overshot its implied interest rate parity (IRP) relationships. Our intermediate-term time model - an enhanced IRP model accounting for short- and long-term real rate differentials, global risk aversion, commodities prices and the trend in the pair - shows that EUR/USD remains near its largest premium to fair value since 2009. Confirming this assessment, the euro has also overshot its equilibrium implied by the level of interest rates five years out (Chart I-12). Valuations offer some insight on the potential size of the euro move, but they offer very little information in terms of timing. Instead, we should rely on technical and macro considerations. On this front, we have already highlighted that speculators are currently net long the euro by the largest margin since 2011. Philosophically, we often look at the euro as the anti-dollar, a highly liquid inverse bet on the dollar. Since EUR/USD constitutes 57.6% of the DXY, a short bet on this dollar index and a long bet on the euro are similar wagers. Currently, the sum of both bets is at a level normally followed by sharp drops in EUR/USD, suggesting that euro buying is hitting exhaustion levels (Chart 13). Meanwhile, with investors having very few short bets on the euro, especially when compared to the large stock of short bets on the DXY, a short squeeze in favor of the USD could emerge if European data disappoints relative to the U.S. (Chart I-13, bottom panel). Chart I-12Downside In EUR/USD Chart I-13Tactical Risk To EUR/USD On the macro front, a few developments have caught our eye. We are entering the window where based on historical lags, the euro area's industrial production is likely to start feeling the pain of the common currency's previous strength (Chart I-14). Compounding this worry for euro longs, euro area earnings revisions are lagging those in the U.S. by the greatest margin since 2014, suggesting the euro's strength has sapped some of the euro area's vigor and is in the process of redistributing it to the U.S. economy. Historically, this has led to a period of weakness in EUR/USD (Chart I-15). Chart I-14The Strong Euro ##br##Will Soon Be Felt Chart I-15Falling Relative EPS Revisions ##br##Equals A Weaker EUR/USD Confirming this insight are relative financial conditions. Euro area financial conditions have been tightening relative to the U.S. since the beginning of 2016 - a move that has become especially pronounced this year. The euro area's inflation outperformance vis-à-vis the U.S. this year was first and foremost a reflection of the previous easing in relative European financial conditions (Chart I-16). Thanks to these strong relative inflation dynamics, investors have brought forward the first rate hike expected from the ECB, while simultaneously removing interest rate hikes out of the U.S. OIS curve. This move has been wildly euro bullish. However, the window of opportunity for this bet is closing; the tightening in European financial conditions now points to a reversal in relative inflation, with U.S. prices set to now take the lead over the euro area. This could force a repricing of the Fed relative to the ECB, implying that monetary divergences could once again play against EUR/USD. Catalonia is not a reason to be bearish on the euro. Marko Papic, BCA's Chief Political Strategist, argues that the northeastern region is unlikely to leave Spain.2 The vast majority of Catalonia still favors remaining part of Spain (Chart I-17). Moreover, the region has received immigrants from the rest of the country for many decades, reflecting its superior economic performance. As a result, only 31% of the population speaks Catalan as a first language. In aggregate, the independentists' victory last weekend only reflects a low turnout rate, as individuals who opposed leaving Spain stayed at home, like they did in 2014. Chart I-16The Fed Will Be Repriced ##br##Against The ECB Chart I-17Will Of The People: ##br##Catalonia Will Stay In Spain Bottom Line: The euro will exhibit downside risk in the coming months. EUR/USD is trading well above its fair value implied by its IRP relationship. Additionally, euro buying has hit nosebleed levels, and the dollar is unloved. Moreover, the euro's recent strength could begin to negatively affect growth, especially as European earnings revisions have collapsed versus the U.S. Finally, financial conditions point to a fall in euro area inflation relative to the U.S., highlighting the risk that the policy path for the Fed could be upgraded against that of the ECB. Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see China Investment Strategy Special Report, titled "On A Higher Note", dated October 5, 2017, available at cis.bcaresearch.com 2 Please see Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, titled "Is King Dollar Back?", dated October 4, 2017, and Geopolitical Strategy Monthly Report, titled "The Geopolitical Risks For The Equity Bull Market", dated May 14, 2014 at gps.bcaresearch.com Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 U.S data has been strong this week: Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMIs beat expectations at 53.1 and 60.8 respectively; ISM Prices Paid rose sharply to 71.5 from 64.0; Markit Services and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIs also beat expectations at 55.3 and 59.8 respectively; ADP employment change and continuing and initial jobless claims also came out better than expected; The DXY has rebounded meaningfully after a string of stronger data and growing hopes on the fiscal policy front recently. Bond markets have picked up on these developments, with the 10-year yield rising 30 basis points from its bottom last month. However, stronger U.S. inflation is needed in order for the greenback to meaningfully rally. Report Links: Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 10 Charts For A Late-August Day - August 25, 2017 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 European data has been mixed: The latest headline and core inflation readings for the euro area were weaker than expected, at 1.5% and 1.1% respectively; German retail sales also underperformed expectations, however, German unemployment rate decreased; Euro area manufacturing PMI also underperformed, while the services PMI outperformed; Euro area producer prices beat expectations, coming in at 2.5%. With U.S. data outperforming, the euro has softened versus the greenback, but has not displayed similar movements against other currencies. While it is true that European inflation is higher than a year ago, it is still not near the ECB's target. A stronger euro would further restrict inflationary pressures, which would be a cause for concern for ECB officials. Report Links: Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 10 Charts For A Late-August Day - August 25, 2017 The Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 Japanese data has been mixed the past weeks: The jobs/applicants ratio came in at 1.52, underperforming expectations and decreasing from the previous month. Additionally, retail trade and overall housing spending yearly growth both disappointed, coming in at 1.7% and 0.6% respectively. However, on the bright side, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI outperformed expectations, coming in at 52.9. Overall, we continue to be bullish on USD/JPY, as yields in the U.S. will continue to rise vis-à-vis Japanese ones. Economic data has been tepid, and wages continue to contract or remain flat, even if some underlying pressures are slowly emerging. Furthermore we expect that the BoJ will continues its extreme measures of yield curve targeting in order to spur inflation expectations. Nevertheless, the yen could appreciate against carry currencies like the AUD or NZD if Chinese monetary conditions become tight enough. Report Links: Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 10 Charts For A Late-August Day - August 25, 2017 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 Recent data in the U.K. has been mixed: Markit services PMI outperformed expectations coming in at 53.6, and increasing from last month's reading However, Markit manufacturing PMI came in under expectations at 55.9, and decreased from last month. Moreover Construction PMI unperformed, coming in at 48.1, the lowest level since July 2016. We would lean against any further strength of the pound against the U.S. dollar. The risks associated with Brexit still looms in the background, while data has been mixed, particularly when it comes to consumption and the housing market. Additionally, the market has already fully priced a rate hike by December. Thus, it seems that any good news for the pound are already in the price, as the BoE certainly has little incentives to follow a hawkish policy beyond removing its post-Brexit emergency measures. Report Links: Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - August 4, 2017 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 Australian data was mixed: AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index decreased to 54.2 from 59.8; TD Securities Inflation came in at 2.5%, down from 2.6%; HIA New Home Sales increased by 9.1% MoM in August, up from the 15.4% contraction in July; Building permits are still contracting 15.5% annually, but better than the expected 16.2% contraction. This week, the RBA decided to leave rates unchanged at 1.5%. The monetary policy statement focused on the lack of wage pressures in the Australian economy and on the higher exchange rate, which is "expected to contribute to continued subdued price pressures in the economy", as well as "weighing on the outlook for output and employment", stating further that "an appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast." Report Links: Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 10 Charts For A Late-August Day - August 25, 2017 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 Last week the RBNZ decided to leave rates unchanged at 1.75%. The RBNZ continued with its dovish slant, arguing that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. An important development, however, is that the central bank toned down its cautious tone about the kiwi. In previous instances, the RBNZ had been very aggressive in stating that the NZD was too expensive and an adjustment was needed. However, in its most recent statement the RBNZ was much less aggressive in its rhetoric, highlighting the fall in the NZD. Overall, we believe that the NZD will continue to have upside against the AUD, as domestic inflationary pressures are much stronger in New Zealand than in Australia. Meanwhile, global developments, such as a downturn in the Chinese industrial cycle would affect Australia much more than New Zealand. Report Links: Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - August 4, 2017 Bad Breadth - July 7, 2017 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 Canadian data was mixed: Industrial product price grew at a 0.3% monthly pace, less than the expected 0.5%; Raw materials increased by 1%, above the expected 0.3%; GDP stagnated in July on a monthly basis, below the expected 0.1% growth; Merchandise trade slipped even further into a deficit from CAD 2.6 bn to CAD 3.41 bn. Furthermore, Governor Poloz's September 27 speech sent the CAD tumbling, stating that "monetary policy will be particularly data dependent" and that it could be "surprised in either direction". Probability of a hike in October and December declined from 48% to 23%, and 75% to 63%, respectively. While growth is robust, inflation has been declining since January, which may be a cautious sign for the BoC. Report Links: Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Investors - September 29, 2017 Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 10 Charts For A Late-August Day - August 25, 2017 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 Data in Switzerland has outperformed to the upside: The KOF Leading Indicator outperformed expectations, coming in at 105.8 and increasing from last month's reading. The SVME Purchasing Manager's Index also outperformed, coming in at 61.7 Finally, headline inflation also outperformed expectations, with a reading of 0.7%, increasing from 0.5% on August. This recent strength in the Swiss economy is most likely reflective of the sharp appreciation that EUR/CHF has experienced in recent months. However, despite the increase in inflation, the Swiss economy is still too weak for the SNB to stop intervening in the foreign exchange market or to remove their ultra-dovish monetary measures. Once we see both headline and core inflation climb closer to their historical averages, we will reassess this view. Report Links: Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - August 4, 2017 Who Hikes Next? - June 30, 2017 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 Data in Norway has been mixed: Register unemployment came in line with expectations at 2.5%, decreasing from last month's 2.7% reading. However the credit growth issued by national institutions in Norway, decreased since last month, coming in at 5.6%. Finally, both retail sales and real retail sales yearly growth came below expectations, coming in at -0.6% and 0.2% respectively. These few data points are interesting given that both retail and real retail sales growth dipped into contractionary territory. This shows that the Norwegian economy is still too weak to sustain a higher krone and higher rates. For this reason we continue to be bullish on USD/NOK. This cross is more correlated with rate differentials than with oil. Thus even if oil continues to rise, rising rates in the U.S. will still put upward pressure on USD/NOK. Report Links: Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 10 Charts For A Late-August Day - August 25, 2017 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - August 4, 2017 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 The 11-year ruling governor of the world's oldest central bank, Stefan Ingves, will now sit at the helm of the Riksbank for five more years, until 31 December 2022. While Sweden's economy is still performing above par with CPIF at 2.3%, our bullish case for the SEK is under threat by the extension of the governor's term, who introduced negative interest rates to Sweden and who is consistently vigilant over the SEK's appreciation, even threatening intervention if needed. EUR/SEK appreciated 0.6% on the news, but has since given up some those gains as economic data in Sweden rebounded sharply. The Riksbank will still likely hike, but the timing is now in question. It is likely that the tightening cycle will now coincide with the ECB's tapering program, which will limit the SEK's appreciation for now. Report Links: Updating Our Long-Term Fair Value Models - September 15, 2017 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - August 4, 2017 Who Hikes Next? - June 30, 2017 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Closed Trades

Highlights Expect Spain's strong growth to fade somewhat as its credit impulse appears to have peaked. The Catalan independence debate is an inconvenience but not a long term tail-risk. Expect Italy's growth to pick up as the Italian banking system is repaired. Brave investors could go long Italian bonds versus Spanish bonds now. More cautious investors might wait until after the Italian election in the first half of next year. France's CAC40 is our preferred mainstream euro area equity market right now. Feature Recent history teaches us that to leave the European Union is inconvenient, but to leave the euro is disastrous. To leave the EU means redefining laws, institutions and trading relationships, but to leave the euro means redenominating the entire banking system's assets and liabilities into different currencies - leading to bank runs and chaotic insolvencies. For this reason, even tiny Greece chose to suffer an extended depression rather than to leave the euro. Chart of the WeekSpain Fixed Its Banks In 2013, Italy Is Fixing Its Banks Now Leaving The EU Is Inconvenient, Leaving The Euro Is Disastrous To leave the EU, there is a broadly defined process but the process is inconvenient and protracted, as the United Kingdom is now discovering. The U.K. will technically leave the EU on March 31 2019, but Prime Minister May has proposed a further transition period of "around two years." Therefore the U.K. will remain in the European single market and customs union - and fully subject to EU laws and regulations - until at least 2021, five years after the U.K. voted to leave the EU. This protraction of the exit process creates a tasty irony. Not long after the U.K. fully leaves in 2021, the Leave vote's 1.25 million majority will have disappeared - counting those who voted in 2016 who are still alive. This is because out of the 0.625 million deaths in the U.K. in each of the coming years, there is a very heavy skew to Leave's much older voters1 (Chart I-2). As the U.K is not in the euro there is no secondary issue of whether to leave the single currency. But this does raise an interesting hypothetical question. If a euro area country - or region like Catalonia - inconveniently left or was ejected from the EU, does it follow that it must also crash out of the euro? No. Several non-EU countries already use the euro. There are the European microstates of Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and Vatican City. More significantly, Montenegro and Kosovo have adopted the euro as their de facto currency. To be clear, we do not expect Catalonia to secede. Polls consistently show a significant majority in Catalonia do not want full independence (Chart I-3). The unionists mostly boycotted the independence referendum because Madrid deemed it illegal. Given the low turnout, the 89% vote for independence equalled just 37% of eligible voters. Chart I-2The Vote For Brexit Was ##br##Driven By Older Voters Chart I-3A Significant Minority In Catalonia##br## Do Not Want Full Independence But even if Catalonia did become independent, this hypothetical eventuality would not involve a catastrophic exit from the euro. Catalonia, in its economic interest, would want to keep the euro, and the EU would let it. The Spain/Italy Conundrum The much bigger threat would be if a major euro area country felt that the single currency was not in its economic interest, and decided to jettison the euro. In this regard, the problem - at first sight - appears to be Italy. Through the 19 years of the euro, Italy's real GDP per head has grown by just 6%, substantially less than any other major economy. If the single currency is to blame for the significant underperformance of its third largest economy with 60 million people, then the euro's long-term viability has to be in question. But it is hard to blame the euro per se for Italy's painful underperformance. For the first half of the euro's life, 1999-2007, Italian real GDP per head performed more or less in line with the United States, Canada and France (Chart I-4) - even without a substantial tailwind from a credit-fuelled boom which the other economies had. Then, in the post-2007 years, there was little to distinguish the economic performances of Italy and Spain until 2013 (Chart I-5). At which point, Spain took off, with real GDP per head subsequently expanding by 15%. Whereas Italy struggled to grow. The conundrum is: what explains this stark recent difference between Spain and Italy? Chart I-4Through 1999-2007, Italy Grew In Line ##br##With Other Major Economies Chart I-5Post-Crisis, There Was Little To Distinguish##br## Italy and Spain Until 2013 The start of Italy's underperformance in 2008 and the start of Spain's strong recovery in 2013 provide the solution to the conundrum. Following the global financial crisis in 2008, Italy has still to repair its banking system. Whereas Spain fixed its banks in 2013. Significantly, Spain ring-fenced bad assets within a bad bank while recapitalising good banks. In effect, it finally did what other economies - most notably the U.S., U.K. and Ireland - had done several years earlier in response to their own housing-related banking crises. Therefore in 2013, Spanish banks' aggressive deleveraging ended. The result was that Spain's credit impulse - which measures the change in bank credit flows - rebounded very sharply and has remained positive for four years. This explains Spain's remarkably strong recovery (Chart I-6). In contrast, Italy's still dysfunctional banking system means that its own credit impulse has been much more muted and barely positive over the past four years (Chart I-7). Begging the question: why has Italy been so slow to fix its dysfunctional banking system? One reason is that Italy's banking malaise has built up stealthily, generating frequent financial tremors but without an outright crisis. In contrast, the credit booms in the U.S., U.K., Ireland and Spain did eventually cause housing busts and full-blown banking crises, requiring urgent policymaker response. A second reason is that the Italian government is more highly indebted than other governments, making it more difficult to raise public funds to fix the banking system. The good news is that the Italian government, the EU and the ECB are now on the same page and finally progressing to repair the banking system. Italian banks' equity capital is rising (Chart I-8), their solvency is improving, and the share of non-performing loans has fallen sharply this year (Chart of the Week). Chart I-6Spain's Credit Impulse Rebounded Sharply Chart I-7Italy's Credit Impulse Has Been More Muted Chart I-8Italian Banks Are Raising Equity Capital Moreover, the recent smooth winding down of the failing Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Bank showed that the EU's new rules for resolving failing banks is working. Admittedly, the rules mean that institutional investors could still suffer losses. But a pragmatic solution will permit public funds to protect 'widows and orphans' retail investors. Some Investment Thoughts As the Italian banking system is repaired, there will be a pickup in Italy's growth just as there was in Spain. However, the strong tailwind to Spain's growth that started in 2013 is now fading given that Spain's credit impulse has peaked. This suggests that the yield spread between Italian BTPs and Spanish Bonos - which measures the extra risk premium in Italy - is at a cyclical peak from which it is likely to compress (Chart I-9). Brave investors could go long Italian bonds versus Spanish bonds now. More cautious investors might wait until after the Italian election in the first half of next year. On the face of it, a fading risk of euro breakup should also boost euro area equity relative performance. The trouble is that the relative performance of the broad Eurostoxx50 index is entirely at the mercy of its major sector skews - specifically, a huge underweighting to Technology and an overweighting to Banks (Chart I-10). The way around this dilemma - to like euro area equities but to dislike the overall sector skew - is to steer towards mainstream indexes which have less of a distorting skew. On this basis, the mainstream euro area equity market we would pick right now is France's CAC40 (Chart I-11). Chart I-9The Yield Spread Between Italian And ##br##Spanish Bonds Is At A Cyclical Peak Chart I-10Eurostoxx50 Relative Performance Is ##br##At The Mercy Of Its Sector Skews Chart I-11Prefer the CAC40 To##br## The Eurostoxx50 Dhaval Joshi, Senior Vice President Chief European Investment Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com 1 In the U.K. around 625,000 people die every year and the vast majority of these are aged over 65. But in this older age cohort, 64% voted Leave (source: YouGov). So we can infer that of the 625,000 deaths, about 400,000 voted Leave and 225,000 voted Remain, eroding the Leave majority who are still alive by 175,000 every year. Fractal Trading Model This week, we note that the Canadian 10-year government bond is oversold and due a trend reversal. We prefer to express this as a new relative trade: long Canadian 10-year bond / short 10-year German bund with a profit target / stop-loss of 1% and double position size. In other trades, long USD/CAD hit its 2.5% profit target - the second success in this specific trade in the last three months. We now have three open positions. For any investment, excessive trend following and groupthink can reach a natural point of instability, at which point the established trend is highly likely to break down with or without an external catalyst. An early warning sign is the investment's fractal dimension approaching its natural lower bound. Encouragingly, this trigger has consistently identified countertrend moves of various magnitudes across all asset classes. Chart I-12 The post-June 9, 2016 fractal trading model rules are: When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. Use the position size multiple to control risk. The position size will be smaller for more risky positions. * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model," dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading Model Recommendations Equities Bond & Interest Rates Currency & Other Positions Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch ##br##- Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch ##br##- Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations

Highlights Economic Outlook: Global growth will stay strong over the next 12 months, with the U.S. surprising on the upside. Unfortunately, the global economy will succumb to a recession in 2019. Stagflation will become a major problem in the 2020s. Portfolio Strategy: We are sticking with our pro-risk stance for the time being, but are trimming our overweight recommendations to global equities and high-yield credit. Fixed Income: Maintain below benchmark duration exposure over the next 12 months. Underweight U.S., euro area, and Canadian government bonds; stay neutral the U.K., Australia, and New Zealand; overweight Japan. Equities: Favor cyclicals over defensives, but look to turn outright bearish on stocks late next year. For now, stay overweight the euro area and Japan relative to the U.S. in local-currency terms. In the EM universe, Chinese H-shares will outperform. Currencies and Commodities: While the recent dollar rebound has further to run, oil-sensitive currencies and the yuan will hold their ground against the greenback. It is too early to buy gold. Feature I. Global Macro Outlook: Reflation, Recession, And Stagflation The economic outlook over the coming years can be summarized in three words: reflation, recession, and stagflation. Reflation A Broad-Based Recovery Global growth is firing on all cylinders. The OECD estimates that all 46 of the economies that it tracks will see positive growth this year, the first time this has happened since 2007. Most leading economic indicators remain upbeat (Chart 1). This has left analysts scrambling to revise up their global GDP growth forecasts (Chart 2). Chart 1Most Leading Economic Indicators Remain Upbeat Chart 2Global Growth Has Accelerated The acceleration in global growth has occurred against the backdrop of tame inflation, which has allowed most central banks to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels. Not surprisingly, risk assets have reacted positively. These goldilocks conditions should remain in place for the next 12 months. While most economies are growing at an above-trend pace, there is still plenty of spare capacity around the world. This means that inflation in countries such as the U.S. - where the labor market has returned to full employment - is likely to rise only gradually, as excess demand is satiated through higher imports. Such a redistribution of demand from countries with low levels of spare capacity to those with high levels is a win-win outcome for the global economy. Recession Running Out Of Room Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Weak productivity growth across most of the world is likely to cause bottlenecks to emerge over time, and this will cause inflation to move higher (Chart 3). Output gaps in the main developed economies would actually be higher today than at the height of the Great Recession had potential GDP grown at the rate the IMF projected back in 2008 (Chart 4). This is a testament to just how exceptionally weak potential growth has been. Chart 3Productivity Growth Has Slowed Across The Globe Chart 4Weak Supply Growth Has Narrowed Output Gaps U.S. growth will surprise to the upside over the next 12 months, leading to an unwelcome burst of inflation in late 2018 or early 2019. Financial conditions have eased sharply this year thanks to lower bond yields, narrower credit spreads, a weaker dollar, and a surging stock market. Changes in financial conditions lead growth by around 6-to-9 months, implying that U.S. growth could reach 3% early next year (Chart 5). This could take the unemployment rate down to 3.5% by end-2018, more than a full point below the Fed's estimate of full employment and even lower than the 2008 low of 3.8%. The unemployment rate could fall even further if Congress succeeds in passing legislation to cut taxes, as we expect it will. Our geopolitical team estimates that the GOP proposal would reduce federal revenues by $1.1-to-$1.2 trillion over ten years, or about 0.5% of GDP.1 In order to appease moderates, the final bill is likely to scale back the size of the tax cuts and shift more of the benefits to middle class households. Under the current proposal, the top 1% of taxpayers would receive 50% of the tax benefits (Chart 6). Our best bet is that the legislation will be enshrined into law in early 2018. Chart 5Easier Financial Conditions Will Boost U.S. Growth Chart 6Republican Tax Would Disproportionately Benefit The Top 1% Welcome To The Steep Side Of The Phillips Curve The so-called Phillips curve, which depicts the relationship between unemployment and inflation, tends to become quite steep once unemployment falls to very low levels (Chart 7). It is easy to see why: When spare capacity is high, a modest decline in slack will still leave many workers idle. In such a setting, inflation is unlikely to rise. However, once the output gap is fully closed, any further decline in slack will cause bottlenecks to emerge, pushing wages and prices higher. The 1960s provide a useful lesson in that regard. Just like today, inflation hovered below 2% during the first half of that decade, even though unemployment was trending downward over this period. To most observers back then, the Phillips curve would have also seemed defunct. However, once the unemployment rate fell below 4%, core inflation took off, rising from 1.5% in early 1966 to nearly 4% in 1967 (Chart 8). The kink in the Phillips curve had been reached. Inflation ultimately made its way to 6% in 1970, four years before the first oil shock struck. Chart 7U.S. Economy Has Moved Into The 'Steep' Side Of The Phillips Curve Chart 8Inflation In The 1960s Took Off Once The Unemployment Rate Fell Below 4% Many commentators have questioned the relevance of the sixties template on the grounds that the U.S. economy was less open to the rest of the world back then, trade unions had greater bargaining power, inflation expectations were not as well anchored, and the deflationary effects of new technologies were not as pervasive. We discussed these arguments in a report published earlier this month, concluding that they are not nearly as persuasive as one might think.2 The Difficulty Of Achieving A Soft Landing Rising inflation will compel the Fed to hike rates aggressively starting late next year in order to push the unemployment rate back towards NAIRU. A turn towards hawkishness is especially likely if Janet Yellen is replaced by someone such as former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, whom betting markets now think has a 40% chance of becoming the next Fed chair (Chart 9). The problem for whoever ends up running the Fed is that it is very difficult to raise the unemployment rate by just a little bit. Modern economies are subject to massive feedback loops. When unemployment begins rising, households lose confidence and reduce spending. This prompts firms to slow hiring, leading to even less spending. The U.S. has never averted a recession in the post-war era whenever the unemployment rate has increased by more than one-third of a percentage point (Chart 10). Chart 9Who Will The Next Fed Chair Be? Chart 10Even A Small Uptick In The Unemployment Rate Is Bad News For The Business Cycle Lofty valuations are likely to exacerbate the adverse feedback loop described above during the next downturn. As growth slows, risk asset prices will tumble. This will cause business investment spending to dry up. Given America's dominant role in global financial markets, the U.S. recession will spread like wildfire to the rest of the world. Stagflation The Doves Reassert Control The next recession will probably be more painful for Wall Street than for Main Street. Fed-induced downturns tend to be swift but short-lived. The subsequent recoveries are usually V-shaped, rather than the elongated U-shaped recoveries that follow financial crises. Nevertheless, central banks around the world will undoubtedly start slashing rates again, perhaps even restarting their QE programs. Traumatized by the Great Recession, central bankers will overreact. The hawks will be blamed for the recession and forced to turn tail. The doves will reassert control. Fiscal policy will be significantly eased. This will be particularly the case if the next recession coincides with Trump's re-election campaign, brewing populism in Europe, and the spectre of military conflict in a variety of hotspots around the planet. Structural Forces Will Boost Inflation Meanwhile, millions of baby boomers will be in the process of leaving the workforce. This will lead to slower income growth, but not to slower spending growth - spending actually rises late in life due to spiraling health care costs (Chart 11). An increase in spending relative to income tends to push up prices. A recent IMF research report estimated that population aging has been highly deflationary over the past few decades, but will be very inflationary over the coming years (Chart 12). Chart 11Savings Over The Life Cycle Chart 12Demographic Shifts: From Highly Deflationary To Highly Inflationary All this suggests that the dip in inflation during the next recession will be fleeting. As the recovery from the shallow recession unfolds, inflation will reaccelerate. Of course, at that point, central banks could step in to aggressively quell inflationary pressures. However, they are unlikely to do so. After the next recession-induced burst of fiscal stimulus, debt levels will be even higher than they are now. The temptation to inflate away this debt will intensify. And, in an environment of anemic real potential GDP growth, the means to generate inflation will become available: Central banks will simply need to keep rates below their "neutral" level. Central bankers will rationalize their actions on the grounds that higher inflation will allow them to bring real interest rates deeper into negative territory in the event of another economic downturn. A growing chorus of eminent economists has begun to argue that a 2% inflation target is too low. For example, just this week, Larry Summers stated that "I think we probably need to adjust our monetary policy framework ... to [one] that provides for higher nominal rates during normal times, so there's more room to cut rates during downturns."3 II. Financial Markets As with the economic outlook, the three words reflation, recession, and stagflation guide our views of where financial markets are heading over the coming years. We continue to maintain a pro-risk stance, but are trimming our overweight recommendation to equities and high-yield credit due to the fact that valuations have gotten stretched and we are entering the last innings of the business-cycle expansion (Table 1). Table 1BCA's Tactical Global Asset Allocation Recommendations* Equities Sticking With Bullish ... For Now Recessions and bear markets tend to go hand-in-hand (Chart 13). None of our recession timing indicators are warning of an imminent downturn, suggesting that the cyclical global equity bull market has further room to run (Chart 14). Chart 13Recessions And Bear Markets Usually Overlap Chart 14AThis Business Cycle Has Further To Run Chart 14BThis Business Cycle Has Further To Run Strong growth in corporate earnings continues to underpin the rally in equities. The MSCI All-Country World index has increased by 11.9% in the first 9 months of the year, only slightly more than the 9.1% gain in earnings. As a result, the forward P/E ratio has only risen from 15.7 at the start of the year to 16.1 (Table 2). Table 2Earnings-Backed Price Appreciation Favor Cyclicals Over Defensives Above-trend global growth should boost profits over the next 12 months. We favor cyclical sectors over defensives, and are expressing this view through our long global industrial stocks/short utilities trade recommendation. The trade is up 0.9% since we initiated it last Friday and up 2.3% since I previewed it at BCA's annual New York Investment Conference earlier the same week. Capital spending tends to accelerate in the mature phase of business-cycle expansions, as a growing number of firms realize that they have insufficient capacity to meet rising demand. Our model predicts that global capex will grow at the fastest pace in six years (Chart 15). This should benefit industrial stocks. On the flipside, rising global yields will hurt rate-sensitive utilities (Chart 16). Chart 15Global Capex On The Upswing Chart 16Higher Bond Yields Will Hurt Utilities Financials should also outperform. Banks, in particular, will benefit from steeper yield curves, faster credit growth, and ongoing declines in nonperforming loans. Energy stocks are also attractive. As discussed below, we continue to maintain a generally upbeat view on the direction of oil prices. Prefer DM Over EM, Europe And Japan Over The U.S. While it is a close call, we see more upside for DM than EM stocks, as the former are less vulnerable to a dollar rebound and an increasingly hawkish Fed. Emerging market equities have had a good run over the past year, and are due for a breather. Our favorite EM equity idea for the fourth quarter is to be long Chinese H-shares. H-shares are heavily tilted toward financials and deep cyclicals, two sectors that we like. They also trade at a mere seven-times forward earnings and one-times book value (Chart 17). Within the DM space, European and Japanese equities should outperform U.S. stocks in currency-hedged terms. The sector composition of both the European and Japanese market is tilted toward stocks that will gain the most from strong global growth and increased capital spending. As our European strategists have documented, the European stock market is dominated by large multinationals whose fortunes are tied more to the global economy than to domestic prospects. This is largely true for the Japanese stock market as well. If our prediction for a somewhat weaker euro and yen comes to pass, profits in both regions will benefit from the currency translation effect. Valuations in Europe and Japan are also generally more attractive than in the U.S, even if one adjusts for different sector weights (Chart 18). Chart 17Chinese H-Shares: A Valuation Snapshot Chart 18U.S. Stocks Look Pricey Small Cap Value Trumps Large Cap Growth Style-wise, we prefer small cap value over large cap growth. Value stocks generally do better in environments where cyclicals are outperforming defensives, while small caps tend to be high-beta bets on global growth (Chart 19). U.S. small caps will disproportionately benefit from cuts to statutory corporate taxes, since smaller companies typically have less ability to game the tax code in their favor. Timing The Next Bear Market As one looks beyond the next 12 months, the skies begin to darken for global equities. The stock market usually sniffs out recessions before they happen, but the lead time is quite variable and generally not that long (Table 3). For example, the S&P 500 peaked only two months before the start of the Great Recession in December 2007. Chart 19Favor Cyclicals And Value Plays Table 3Stocks And Recessions: Case-By-Case Chart 20Stagflation Was Devastating For Stocks Stagflation Is Not A Stock-Friendly Environment If the next recession begins in the second half of 2019, global equities will probably peak earlier that year or in late 2018. Given the starting point for valuations, U.S. equities are likely to fall 20%-to-30% peak-to-trough. While other global bourses are generally not as expensive, their higher-beta nature means that they will probably face similar if not worse declines. The fact that correlations tend to rise during risk-off episodes will only add to the bloodshed. Stocks And Stagflation If the experience of the 1970s is any guide, equities perform poorly in stagflationary environments (Chart 20). Investors tend to see stocks as a riskier substitute for bonds. When nominal bond yields rise, the dividend yield offered by stocks becomes less attractive. In theory, the increase in the nominal value of corporate net worth resulting from higher inflation should generate enough capital gains over time to compensate for the wider gap between dividend yields and bond yields. In practice, due to "money illusion" and other considerations, that does not fully occur, requiring that stocks become cheaper so that their expected return can rise. The Long-Term Outlook For Profit Margins A complicating factor going into the next decade will be what happens to profit margins. S&P 500 operating margins are close to their all-time highs (Chart 21). While margins will undoubtedly fall during the next recession, their subsequent recovery is likely to be encumbered by a number of shifting structural forces. A slew of labor-saving technological innovations depressed labor's share of income over the past few decades. So did the entry of over one billion new workers into the global labor force following the collapse of the Berlin Wall and China's transition to a capitalist economy. The fixation of central banks on bringing down inflation may have led to higher unemployment than what would otherwise have been the case, thereby undermining the bargaining power of workers. All this may change during the next decade. China's labor force has peaked and is on track to decline by over 400 million workers by the end of the century - a larger decline than the entire U.S. population (Chart 22). A shift towards persistently more expansionary monetary policy could also keep the labor market fairly tight. Chart 21U.S. Profit Margins Are Close To All-Time Highs Chart 22China On Course To Lose More Than 400 Million Workers Technological innovation will persist, but the firms that benefit from it are likely to attract more scrutiny from regulators. Republican voters - the traditional defenders of corporate America's God-given right to make a buck - are growing increasingly wary of big business. Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and the rest of the corporate establishment tend to be liberal on social issues and conservative on economic ones. Very few voters actually share this configuration of views (Chart 23). The Democratic Party's "Better Deal" moves it to the left on many economic issues. This runs the risk of leaving the U.S. without any major party actively pushing a pro-business agenda. That can't be good for profit margins. Bottom Line: Investors should stay overweight global equities, but trim exposure from moderate overweight to small overweight due to rising business-cycle risk, and look to get outright bearish late next year. The long-term outlook for equities is poor, especially in the U.S. where valuations are highly stretched. Chart 24 presents a stylized sketch of how we think the major stock market indices will evolve over the coming years. Chart 23An Absence Of Libertarians Chart 24Market Outlook: Equities Fixed Income Above-trend GDP growth and rising inflation are likely to push up long-term bond yields in most economies over the next few quarters, as flagged by our Central Bank Monitors (Chart 25). Bond yields will fall during the next recession and then begin to inexorably rise higher as stagflationary forces intensify (Chart 26). Looking out over the next 12 months, our regional allocation recommendations are as follows: Chart 25Our Central Bank Monitors Point To Growing Pressures To Tighten Chart 26Market Outlook: Bonds Underweight The U.S., Euro Area, And Canada Chart 27Canada Enjoys Robust Growth We remain underweight U.S. Treasurys in a global fixed-income portfolio. The market is pricing in only 44 basis points in Fed hikes between now and the end of next year, well below the 100 basis points of hikes implied by the dots in the Summary of Economic Projections. The U.S. yield curve has flattened since the start of the year. This should change over the next 12 months, as inflation expectations rebound from currently depressed levels. The yield curve in the euro area should steepen more than in the U.S., since the ECB has pledged not to raise rates until well after its asset purchase program is complete - something that is unlikely to happen until the end of next year. This implies that the 2-year spread between the two regions will widen in favor of the U.S., which should be bullish for the dollar. Canadian bond yields are likely to rise further (Chart 27). The unemployment rate has fallen to a nine-year low and the Bank of Canada expects the output gap to be fully closed by the end of this year. The economy grew by 3.7% year-over-year in the second quarter, well above the BoC's estimate of potential real GDP growth of 1.5%. The Bank's most recent Business Outlook Survey points to continued robust growth ahead. The bubbly housing market remains a concern, but delaying withdrawal of monetary accommodation risks exacerbating the problem. Neutral On Gilts And Aussie And Kiwi Bonds In contrast to most other developed economies, leading indicators point to slower U.K. growth in the months ahead (Chart 28). This undoubtedly reflects the ongoing uncertainty over Brexit negotiations, which are likely to drag on for quite some time. Core inflation has surged to 2.7% on the back of the sharp depreciation of the pound, but market expectations suggest that it is about to roll over. Nevertheless, with 10-year gilts fetching just 1.35%, the downside for yields is limited. The cheap pound should also prop up exports, partly offsetting the impact of diminished market access to the rest of the EU. The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, slightly below the Bank of England's estimate of NAIRU. One way or another, the uncertainty over Brexit will fade, allowing gilt yields to move higher. As with gilts, the outlook for Australian and New Zealand bonds is mixed. Strong global growth should boost commodity prices. This will help the Australian economy. The unemployment rate in Australia has fallen to 5.6%, but involuntary part-time employment is high and wage growth has been stagnant. Industrial capacity utilization remains low, as reflected in a fairly large output gap (Chart 29). The market expects the RBA to deliver 38 basis points in rate hikes over the next 12 months. We think that's about right. New Zealand's 10-year yield stands at a relatively generous 2.96%, which makes it difficult to be too bearish on kiwi bonds. However, we do not see much scope for yields to fall from current levels. Nominal GDP is growing at over 5% and retail sales are expanding at nearly 7% (Chart 30). The terms of trade have risen to their highest level since the 1970s. The output gap is now fully closed and core inflation is edging higher. Despite this good news, the policy rate remains at a record low of 1.75%. We concur with market expectations that the RBNZ will start raising rates next year. Chart 28U.K. Growth Is Slowing Chart 29There Is Still Slack In The Australian Economy Chart 30New Zealand: Upbeat Indicators Overweight JGBs CPI swaps predict that inflation in Japan will average only 0.5% over the next twenty years. As we argued last week, this is far too low.4 The secular drivers of deflation are fading and inflation will begin to surprise to the upside over the coming years (Chart 31). However, the path between here and there will be a choppy one. Considering that deflationary expectations remain deeply entrenched, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to abandon its yield curve targeting regime for at least the next few years. As government bond yields rise elsewhere in the world, 10-year JGBs will be the default winners. Investors thinking of going short Japanese government bonds should focus on 20-year or 30-year maturities, which are not subject to the BoJ's cap. Credit: Still Overweight, But Trimming Back Exposure High-yield credit spreads have fallen back near their post-recession lows after widening in the wake of the global manufacturing recession (Chart 32). We see little scope for further spread compression. Our U.S. Corporate Health Monitor remains in deteriorating territory (Chart 33), and higher Treasury yields will put downward pressure on corporate bond prices even if spreads remain constant. Nevertheless, the default-adjusted spread on U.S. high-yield debt of 212 basis points is still large enough to warrant a modest overweight to credit, especially since banks have started to loosen lending standards again. Chart 31Japan: Fading Deflationary Forces Chart 32High-Yield Spreads Have Narrowed Chart 33U.S. Corporate Health Continues To Deteriorate Our Global Fixed Income Strategists prefer U.S. over European credit, given that spreads are lower in Europe, and the tapering of ECB asset purchases could reduce the demand for spread product. Currencies And Commodities The Dollar: Comeback Kid? Charts 34 and 35 show our expectations about the future path of the major currencies and commodities. Chart 34Market Outlook: Currencies Chart 35Market Outlook: Commodities BCA's Global Investment Strategy service went long the dollar in October 2014. We reiterated our bullish stance before the U.S. presidential elections, controversially arguing that "Trump Will Win And The Dollar Will Rally."5 Unfortunately, we remained long the dollar over the course of this year, which turned out to be a mistake. Strong growth abroad, weaker-than-expected inflation readings in the U.S., and the fizzling of the "Trump Trade" all contributed to dollar weakness. Technicals also played a role. Sentiment was extremely bullish towards the dollar at the start of the year, but extremely bearish towards the euro (Chart 36). The reversal of these technical trends helps explain why the euro appreciated a lot more than what one would have expected based simply on changes in interest rate differentials (Chart 37). Chart 36Euro: Long Positions Are Getting Stretched Chart 37The Euro Has Overshot Interest Rate Spreads Of course, if the spread between U.S. and euro area interest rates continues to narrow, it is likely that EUR/USD will strengthen. We are skeptical that it will. For one thing, financial conditions have eased sharply in the U.S. since the start of the year, but have tightened in the euro area (Chart 38). This suggests that U.S. growth will surprise on the upside whereas euro area growth could begin to disappoint. Chart 38U.S. Versus Euro Area Diverging Financial Conditions The five-year, five-year forward OIS spread between the two regions stands at 87 basis points in nominal terms, and 25 basis points in real terms. The five-year forward spread is even lower if one calculates a GDP-weighted bond yield for the euro area rather than looking at the expected path of interbank rates. Such a small spread is inconsistent with the fact that the neutral rate is substantially higher in the U.S.6 We expect EUR/USD to fall to $1.15 by the end of 2017, and potentially decline further in 2018 as the Fed picks up the pace of rate hikes. The dollar is also likely to strengthen against the yen, as Treasury yields rise relative to JGB yields. We see less downside for the British pound and the Swedish krona against the greenback. This is reflected in our long GBP/EUR and long SEK/CHF trade recommendations, both of which remain in the black. Upside For Oil-Sensitive Currencies Our energy strategists still see further upside for crude oil prices, owing to favorable supply and demand conditions. They point to the fact that official forecasts by the EIA have consistently underestimated oil demand. They also note that compliance with OPEC 2.0 production cuts has been remarkably good, and that estimates of how much new shale output will hit the market over the next 12 months are too optimistic. Additionally, they believe that the decline in production from conventional oil fields around the world - especially offshore fields, where there has been a dearth of new investment in recent years - could be larger than expected.7 Geopolitical risks in Iraq, Libya, and Venezuela could also adversely affect supply. Firmer demand and lackluster supply will lead to further drawdowns in OECD oil inventories, which should be supportive of prices (Chart 39). We recently took profits of 13.8% on our recommendation to go long the December-2017 Brent oil futures contract, but are maintaining exposure to oil through our long CAD/EUR and RUB/EUR positions, as well as through our bias towards cyclical equities. Resilient Chinese Economy Should Support Metal Prices And The RMB Recent Chinese data have been on the soft side, giving rise to fears that the economy is heading towards a major slowdown. We are more optimistic. While growth has clearly slowed since the start of the year, it remains at an above-trend pace, as evidenced by numerous real-time measures of economic activity (Chart 40). Chart 39Falling Oil Inventories Should Lead To Higher Crude Prices Chart 40Chinese Economy: No Need To Be Pessimistic Even the housing market has managed to stay resilient, despite widespread predictions of imminent doom (Chart 41). The share of households planning to buy a new home remains close to all-time highs. The amount of land purchased by developers - a good leading indicator for housing starts - is accelerating. Reflecting these developments, property stocks are surging. Financial conditions have tightened, but so far this has largely bypassed the real economy. In fact, long-term bank lending to nonfinancial institutions has accelerated since the start of the year (Chart 42). The recently announced cuts to reserve requirements for small business loans should facilitate this trend. Chart 41Chinese Housing Market Remains Resilient Chart 42Credit To Real Economy And Profit Rebound Bode Well For Capex Meanwhile, industrial profits have rebounded, as rampant producer price deflation last year has given way to modest price gains this year. Increased retained earnings will give Chinese companies the wherewithal to spend more on capital equipment. A recovery in global trade should also help stoke export growth. (Chart 43). Despite strengthening this year, our indicators suggest the yuan is still in undervalued territory (Chart 44). Buoyant economic growth should alleviate capital flight and reduce the pressure on the authorities to engineer a further depreciation of the currency. This, in turn, should help support metal prices and other EM currencies, even in a setting where the dollar remains well bid. Chart 43Positive Global Trade Momentum: A Tailwind For Chinese Exports Chart 44The Chinese Yuan Is Undervalued Chart 45Gold: Waiting For Drivers Of Sustained Price Appreciation Buy Gold ... But Not Yet Lastly, a few words on gold. Gold does well in situations where real rates are falling and the dollar is weakening (Chart 45). That's not the environment we find ourselves in today. Gold will have its day in the sun, but probably not before the stagflationary era begins in earnest after the next recession. Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Global Investment Strategy peterb@bcaresearch.com 1 This revenue loss is measured against a baseline where a number of tax breaks, which are currently set to expire, are extended. Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Is King Dollar Back?" dated October 4, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Is The Phillips Curve Dead Or Dormant?" dated September 22, 2017. 3 Summers, Lawrence, H. (@LHSummers). "Great piece by @jasonfurman in today's @WSJ: The U.S. can no longer afford deficit-increasing tax cuts." 01 Oct 2017. Tweet. 4 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Three Tantalizing Trades," dated September 29, 2017. 5 Please see Global Investment Strategy Special Report, "Three (New) Controversial Calls," dated September 30, 2016. 6 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Central Bank Showdown," dated September 8, 2017. 7 Please see Commodity & Energy Strategy, "OPEC 2.0 Will Extend Cuts to June 2018," dated September 21, 2017. Strategy & Market Trends Tactical Trades Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades

Highlights Catalonia is a red herring - stay focused on U.S. tax cuts; Tax cuts are on track and will swell the budget deficit; The dollar is poised for a comeback; Believe the Phillips Curve, not the "Amazon effect"; Shinzo Abe's gamble is bullish; go long USD/JPY. Feature Global investors woke up on Monday to shocking news of a mass shooting in Las Vegas and police brutality in Catalonia, where Spain's federal law enforcement attempted to break up the October 1 independence referendum. According to final figures, nearly 92% of those who voted chose to separate from Spain, setting the stage for a unilateral declaration of independence. Our views on the Catalan independence "struggle" are well known to our clients.1 We will only briefly recap them here. Instead, we focus this Weekly Report on the prospects for the U.S. dollar and on Japan's snap election. Catalan Independence: Indignation Is Not A Strategy Why are we so dismissive of the imbroglio in Catalonia? Five reasons: Police "brutality" is overstated: Catalan officials reported that 844 people had been hurt in clashes, but the BBC noted that the "majority had minor injuries or had suffered from anxiety attacks."2 Not the first referendum: The turnout was only 42.34%, as many voters refused to participate. Given that the latest polls show that only 34.7% of Catalans actually want independence, the result was unsurprising (Chart 1).3 Those who oppose independence from Spain stayed home, as they did in 2014. In fact, Table 1 shows that there were about 100,000 less "yes" voters in 2017 than three years ago. Catalonia is not Catalan: According to the latest data from the Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya, only 31% of the population identifies Catalan as their "first language," compared with 55% who identify with Spanish. This is a product of decades of migration from within Spain which has diluted Catalonia's homogeneity. For the most part, the non-Catalans belong to the working class and do not get involved in independence protests or in breathlessly tweeting about the return of dictatorship to Madrid. But if they sense that independence is being imposed on them by an elitist minority, they could let their voice be heard. A declaration of independence means nothing: A unilateral declaration without international support, or the ability to enforce it with arms, is vacuous. U.S. President Donald Trump lent his support to Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy ahead of the vote, while French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his support for Madrid following the referendum violence. The EU has made it clear that an independent Catalonia would have to go through the accession process in order to enter the EU, which means it would not have access to the Common Market post-independence. Catalans will not resort to force en masse: Our expectation is that Catalans will not resort to force in order to breakaway from Spain. German sociologist Max Weber famously defined sovereignty as a "monopoly over the use of legitimate force" in a defined geographical territory. If a Catalan minority is unwilling to wrestle control of borders from Spain, its declarations will be irrelevant. Chart 1Catalonia: A Revolt By The Minority Table 1What Has Changed Since 2014? There is more to the referendum than the government in Catalonia is letting on. The Junts pel Sí (Together for Yes) coalition of four parties is unified only by its stance on independence. But the main two nationalist parties that make up the government are on the opposite sides of the ideological spectrum. Without the independence push, the regional government would lose its raison d'être and fall. From the market perspective, the situation in Catalonia would become relevant if the Catalan government, or militant groups in the region, decided to step up tensions by employing force. This could derail Spain's economic recovery, especially since so much of it was centered on manufacturing in the region. We do not see this as likely. First, there are no "militant groups" in Catalonia. Second, throughout the half-century long Basque conflict - which saw over thousand people killed between 1959 and 2011 - Catalonia never experienced violent unrest. Catalan extremists never got inspired by the militant Basque group ETA on any significant scale. Why? Because the independence movement in Catalonia is mainly a bourgeois, middle and upper class, "struggle" for independence that is unlikely to descend into violence. Yes, there are some farmers and blue-collar supporters of independence. But the majority of Catalonia's working class are actually not Catalan. They are either recent migrants from the rest of Europe or migrants from poorer regions of Spain. Not only are they opposed to independence, but they are openly hostile to a bourgeois minority lording their Catalan ethnic superiority over the recently arrived migrants. With Catalan tensions, the ongoing North Korean saga, and the recent tragedy in Las Vegas, there is plenty to distract investors from the most investment-relevant political issue: U.S. tax policy. Bottom Line: As we noted in February, European assets will continue to "climb the wall of worry," which includes Catalan tensions.4 Investors should fade any market reaction to the crisis in Catalonia, which is sure to dominate the news flow for at least the entirety of Q4 2017. Do Republican Voters Want Tax Cuts? The market was shocked at the end of September by President Donald Trump's tax reform plan. After months of doubting whether Republican policymakers can accomplish anything, the market reacted positively to the announcement (Chart 2). And yet a lot of skepticism remains. Primarily, the fear is that fiscally conservative Republicans in the House and Senate will stand in opposition to the plan. After all, Republicans have just failed to repeal and replace Obamacare. Why should tax policy be any different? Chart 2Sign Of Life For 'Trump Reflation' We have argued since November that Republicans in Congress are actually not fiscally responsible.5 Not now and not ever. As if on cue, this spring, the leader of the Tea Party-linked Freedom Caucus, Mark Meadows (R, NC) said that the upcoming tax reform effort did not have to be "revenue-neutral," a claim he repeated on NBC's Meet The Press this weekend. If the leader of the single-most fiscally conservative grouping in Congress is okay with profligacy, who is left to oppose it?!6 Republican voters might have something to say about deficit-busting tax legislation. But GOP legislators are not the only ones willing to compromise on their austerity rhetoric. Republican voters are just as comfortable with profligacy. Chart 3 speaks volumes. It shows that Americans become a lot more comfortable with a bigger government providing more services when Republican presidents are in power. Given Democrats' stable preference for more spending, the movement in the poll is mainly due to Republican and independent voters. There are two ways to interpret the data: Republican voters do not mind a profligate government, as long as the spending is aligned with their priorities. Republican voters do not actually disagree with Democrats on spending priorities, but merely doubt that Democratic policymakers can deliver on those priorities in a fiscally sustainable manner. Whatever the explanation, Chart 3 is clear evidence that the American public grows more comfortable with profligacy when Republicans are in charge. But do voters want tax cuts? The latest polls show that Americans no longer think that they pay too much in taxes (Chart 4). Republican and Republican-leaning voters do not have a problem with how much they pay in taxes, but they do have a problem with the complexity of the tax code (Chart 5). Chart 4American Voters Think Taxes Are Fair... Chart 5...But Republican Voters Think They Are Too Complex The charge that the Trump tax legislation will be a massive tax cut for the wealthy and corporations could stick with some voters, we think primarily with Democrats. Pew research polling consistently shows that Democrats, across the income brackets, agree by 70%-80% that corporations and wealthy people pay too little tax. Republican voters could be susceptible to the same argument, given that around 35%-45% of them agree with Democrats on this issue. To preempt the debate, the Trump administration is focusing heavily on tax complexity. In addition, Trump left the proposed surcharge on the wealthy - a fourth income bracket in the new plan - as yet undefined. This is on purpose. It allows the White House and Congressional GOP legislators to respond to the criticism as it develops. What could be the stumbling blocks going forward? A "Breitbart clique" revolt: A populist revolt against tax cuts for the rich could turn skittish Republicans in Congress against the legislation. The recent electoral defeat for the political establishment in the Alabama Senate primary has shown off the power of the "Breitbart clique" in itself, independent of Trump. However, a quick survey of Breitbart.com shows that the former White House Chief Strategist and Rabble-Rouser-in-Chief Steve Bannon has not unleashed his media machine against the tax plan. In fact, the only prominent Breitbart piece on the tax plan thus far has excoriated the mainstream media for misinterpreting the comments of Gary Cohn, the White House's chief economic adviser, on middle class tax cuts.7 It may be the first time that the website has ever written anything positive about Cohn. Blue State Republicans: There are 29 Republican representatives facing tough reelection campaigns next year who are based in states that voted for Secretary Hillary Clinton in 2016. These Republican representatives will staunchly oppose any proposal to end the state and local tax deduction, given that their voters will be subjected to higher rates of state and local taxes.8 These "Blue State Republicans" could scuttle the current tax blueprint in the House. Anticipating the problem, Gary Cohn has said that the removal of the deduction is not a "red line" for the administration. Senators: Republicans have only a slim margin for error in the Senate. Senators Bob Corker (R, TN) and John McCain (R, AZ) could be the two staunchest opponents to the tax reform effort. The former is a deficit hawk and critic of the president, the latter is a maverick and firmly opposed to the president. On the other hand, the usual thorn in the side of the GOP establishment, Rand Paul (R, KY), could be brought around to support the proposal. Moderates like Susan Collins (R, ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R, AK) should be watched carefully. Investors should expect more Republicans to come out in opposition to certain provisions of the proposed tax legislation. However, the path of least resistance is not for the entire effort to fail, but rather for it to become more profligate. For example, the White House has already gestured towards a compromise with Blue State Republicans on the state and local tax deduction that would increase the deficit. Furthermore, we continue to stress that the failure of the Obamacare repeal and replace bill is not a good guide for what will happen with tax legislation. Taking away an entitlement program is politically challenging. Tax cuts, on the other hand, are generally not. Bottom Line: President Donald Trump is an economic populist. Our research into international comparisons shows that populists tend to get what they want, which is primarily higher nominal GDP growth (Chart 6). We therefore continue to expect the roughly $1.5 trillion tax cut effort - which may or may not deserve the title of tax reform - to pass. Is King Dollar Primed For A Rally? Investors should consider the proposed tax legislation a form of modest stimulus. If we assume that the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts will be offset with a combination of revenue-raising policies to the tune of 50%, it still leaves roughly $750 billion in new deficit spending (stimulus) over the next ten years. A more reasonable figure for total revenue offsets is around $400 billion, which would put the cost of stimulus at roughly $1.1 billion.9 This is not extraordinary large, but even a modest effort this far into the economic cycle could have a significant effect. BCA's Chief Global Strategist, Peter Berezin, believes that inflation is around the corner.10 So why the delay in the data? Peter points out that while the Phillips Curve has gotten a lot flatter over the past four decades (Chart 7), it remains a curve. Once the economy reaches full employment - as it has done in the U.S. (Chart 8) - the curve steepens much faster. As Peter puts it: Chart 6Populists Deliver (Nominal) GDP Growth Chart 7The Phillips Curve Has Gotten Flatter Chart 8U.S. Economy At Full Employment The idea that the Phillips curve steepens at low levels of unemployment is very intuitive: If excess capacity is high to begin with, a modest decline in slack will still leave many workers idle. In such a setting, inflation is unlikely to rise. However, once the output gap is fully closed, any further decline in slack will cause bottlenecks to emerge, pushing wages and prices higher. The empirical evidence supports this conclusion. Chart 9 shows that U.S. wage growth has tended to accelerate once the unemployment rate falls into the range of 4%-5%. Chart 9Watch Out For The 'Kink' In The Phillips Curve When we present Peter's argument to clients, many retort that "this time is different," namely because of phenomena like the "Amazon effect." To put that argument to rest, our colleague Mark McClellan has penned a Special Report titled, "Did Amazon Kill The Phillips Curve?"11 Mark shows that while e-commerce is undoubtedly increasing its share of retail sales (Chart 10), its contribution to annual headline CPI is modest. For example, Chart 11 shows that online prices fell relative to the overall CPI for most of the time since the early 1990s. However, e-commerce only contributed about -0.15 percentage points to annual CPI in June 2017, and has never contributed more than -0.3 percentage points. Chart 10E-Commerce: Steady Increase In Market Share Chart 11Online Price Index To further test the impact of e-commerce on inflation, Mark focused on the parts of the CPI that are most exposed to it. If online shopping is having a significant deflationary impact on overall inflation, we should see large and persistent negative contributions from these parts of the CPI. He therefore combined the components of the CPI that most closely matched the sectors that have high e-commerce exposure (Chart 12). Again, the contribution of e-commerce-heavy sectors to annual CPI is minimal. Chart 12Electronic Shopping Price Index Chart 13BCA E-Commerce Proxy Price Index Chart 14BCA E-Commerce Adjusted Proxy Price Index Mark finally recalculated the e-commerce proxy using only the sectors displaying the most relative price declines - clothing, computers, electronics, furniture, sporting goods, air travel, and other goods - and assumed that all other sectors actually deflated at the average pace of the entire index. The adjusted e-commerce proxy suggests that online pricing reduced overall CPI by about 0.1-0.2 percentage points in recent years (Chart 13 & Chart 14). We find Mark's work intuitive. The "Amazon effect" is a great example of fitting a broad theory to a particular set of data, a common error in the investment community. The weak inflation print - which is a "Summer of 2017" phenomenon - is being extrapolated into a decade-long theme. But the data is clear: the deceleration of inflation since the Great Financial Crisis has been in areas unaffected by online sales, chiefly energy, food, and shelter costs. High corporate profit margins in the retail sector also argue against the idea that e-commerce represents a large positive macro supply shock. In fact, today's creative destruction in retail may be no more deflationary than the shift to "big box" stores in the 1990s. Putting it all together, the three above views provide a fairly clear signal in terms of asset implications: Geopolitical Strategy Tax Policy View: Tax legislation is a form of modest stimulus enacted by a populist White House in search of higher nominal GDP growth, and it will pass; Global Investment Strategy Phillips Curve View: The Phillips Curve is not dead, just dormant, and will steepen as the U.S. unemployment rate declines further below the equilibrium level; The Bank Credit Analyst "Amazon Effect" View: There is no "Amazon Effect." Pro-cyclical fiscal stimulus in the U.S. should be bullish for the U.S. dollar, bullish for U.S. small caps relative to large caps, and bearish for U.S. 10-year Treasuries. We are already long USD against EUR by recommending that our clients go long Euro Area equities relative to the S&P 500 with a currency hedge.12 We think there may be more upside for the USD against the yen, especially given our view of the upcoming general election in Japan below. What are the risks to a bullish USD view? Continued strong global growth is the main risk (Chart 15). Global data is improving to the point that even moribund Italy is now on fire (Chart 16). However, the positive data may be peaking. European data, in particular, looks like it is reaching its absolute highs (Chart 17). Chart 15Can Global Growth Get Any Higher? Chart 16Italy Is On Fire... Chart 17...As Is Europe Overall Particularly concerning from the global perspective is the ongoing slowdown in the pace of expansion of Chinese money and credit, which we have been arguing for almost a year is policy induced.13 Our colleague Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist of BCA's Emerging Market Strategy has flagged that the official M2, as well as BCA's own custom version of broad money M3, are slowing down to new lows (Chart 18). From the broad money M3, Arthur and his team construct the M3 impulse, which leads both the Chinese leading economic indicator and the well-known "Li Keqiang index" (a growth proxy) by six months (Chart 19).14 Most importantly from the global perspective, the slowdown in Chinese money and credit growth ought to negatively impact demand for imports from China-exposed export sectors in Asia and Europe (Chart 20). Chart 18But Credit Growth In China Is Slowing Chart 19Chinese Credit Leads The Domestic Economy... Chart 20...As Well As Exports To China The policy-induced crackdown against money and credit growth in China should be particularly pertinent in Europe. BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy has noted how the close trading relationship between China and Europe influences the growth delta between Europe and the U.S.15 Given the potential slowdown in China, and subsequent impact on EM economies, bullishness on Europe could be peaking. Bottom Line: Our view that a modest fiscal stimulus may be afoot is only a small part of a wider BCA bullish-USD narrative. We think it is once again time to turn bullish towards the greenback. We are opening a long USD/JPY recommendation. Our colleague Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy, has been long since USD/JPY hit 109 on August 11. Japan: Abenomics Will Survive Abe Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's snap election on October 22 took us by surprise. Not because of the timing, which was telegraphed by rumors in the press, but because, for Abe and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the upside risk is limited while the downside is unlimited. Since May 24 we have argued that Abe's political capital has peaked, based on the empirically grounded expectation that his pursuit of constitutional changes to legitimize Japan's defense forces would erode his popular support.16 This view received confirmation in early July, when Yuriko Koike, a former LDP politician, led an insurgency against the LDP in the Tokyo metropolitan elections and dealt them a historic blow in that region. At that time, we argued that Abe would not lose power anytime soon: he maintained his two-thirds supermajority in the lower house (and virtual supermajority in the upper house), did not face an election until December 2018, and could thus double down on reflationary economic policies in order to rebuild popular support.17 Chart 21An Upstart Party Challenges The LDP Now, Abe has made a risky decision to move the general election forward 14 months. He wants to capitalize on Japan's recent strong economic performance, the peaking of North Korean tensions (which are likely to decline by late next year), and an uptick in approval ratings. Last but not least, he wants to take the fight to the political opposition at a time when the rival Democratic Party is in total collapse and Governor Koike, his chief antagonist, is unready to wage a national campaign. The timing was shrewd but comes at a cost. Koike announced a new political party, the Party of Hope, just hours before Abe called the early election. In the first set of opinion polls it has sprung up to 15% approval, only nine points shy of the LDP. True, this is still 14 points short of the ruling coalition (Chart 21). But crucially, the collapse of the Democratic Party prompted its leader, Seiji Maehara, to declare that his party would not contest the new elections. This leaves its members free to join Koike's party; it also partly obviates the problem of the Democratic Party and Party of Hope stealing each other's votes.18 Throughout Abe's term we have compared his approval ratings to those of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, the LDP's last heavyweight leader, to test whether he retains political capital (Chart 22). According to this measure, he does. Yet, given Abe's long tenure and gradually declining support, this comparison only works as long as there is no viable alternative. That is because Abe's net approval rating, as well as his ability to bring star-power to the LDP, has been fading in recent years (Chart 23). Now he has called an election at the very moment that a possible alternative has emerged!19 Chart 22Abe Losing Favor Over Time Chart 23Abe Becoming A Liability However, we say a possible alternative for a reason: Koike herself, as yet, is refusing to run for the prime minister's slot. She is in a "dilemma of irresponsibility" in which, having just become governor of Tokyo on the pledge to put "Tokyo First," she will be criticized for flagrant ambition and flip-flopping if she abandons that post to run against Abe directly.20 As long as Koike remains on the sidelines, Abe will retain his absolute majority. It would be very difficult for a new party that is struggling to field candidates across the whole country, lacks a clear prime minister candidate, and faces competition with other opposition parties to deprive an incumbent coalition of 85 seats. (Depriving the LDP of its 50-seat party majority alone would be momentous, though conceivable.) The LDP has fallen out of power on only two previous occasions since 1955: once, briefly, in 1993, in the wake of the collapse of Japan's Heisei bubble, and once in 2009, in the wake of the global financial crisis (Chart 24). And the LDP has never lost more than 22 seats in an election year, like this year, in which economic growth is faster than the preceding year. That size of loss would leave Abe wounded but still in control.21 Chart 24The LDP Seldom Loses Elections In Japan On the other hand, if Koike changes her mind and throws herself headlong into competition with Abe, it is possible, albeit still highly unlikely, that she could pull off a historic upset.22 Currently the number of undecided voters is high at about 43%. In recent years, these voters have tended to correlate negatively with LDP support (Chart 25), meaning that LDP voters grew dissatisfied and "undecided" but then came crawling back when the party wooed them. However, Koike could change this dynamic - not only because she apparently has momentum, but also because her background and platform are substantially similar to Abe's, yet with a fresh face.23 Chart 25Undecided Voters Often Return To LDP Koike must make her decision by October 10. It is unlikely that she will join or that her party will field enough competitive candidates - in this respect, Abe gambled correctly in calling the election now. Barring her entrance, what is at stake is Abe's 6-seat "supermajority" in the lower house. Abe is likely to lose this advantage simply based on the Party of Hope's strength in Greater Tokyo and the Kanto Plain, augmented as it is by collaboration with the Democratic Party. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that Koike could easily deprive Abe of this supermajority. Assuming that the Party of Hope performs in line with Koike's performance in the Tokyo/Kanto region in July, gaining 39% of the seats (34% of the popular vote), implies that the Party of Hope could steal as many as 47 seats from the ruling coalition on October 22 (Table 2). This is a generous estimate in giving Koike's party strong support, but a conservative estimate in assuming that it will not win a single seat outside the Tokyo/Kanto region.24 Losing this supermajority would be a big loss of momentum for Abe and the LDP that would carry over into the legislative process (where Abe would struggle to control the LDP factions and fend off corruption allegations) and future elections (where the LDP would be more vulnerable). It would sow the seeds for a leadership challenge against Abe in the LDP next September. But it keeps the LDP in power for the next four years. And its direct impact on passing bills is limited. A lower house majority would still be under the LDP leader's control, and the LDP would still have a near-supermajority in the upper house, removing any risk that it would delay bills. The only initiative likely to suffer would be Abe's treasured constitutional revisions, and yet even those would still have a fighting chance of passing the Diet. The important thing for investors to realize is that a setback or defeat for Abe will not be the death of Abenomics.25 Reflation will continue and Japanese risk assets will continue to outperform on a currency-hedged basis. Why? Table 2The Party Of Hope Threatens The LDP Supermajority From Its Base In The Tokyo/Kanto Region Abenomics is already bearing fruit: Inflation remains weak, but Japan's output gap is closing and unemployment gap is gone (Chart 26). It is only a matter of time before supply constraints put more upward pressure on prices, lowering real rates and easing financial conditions for the economy as a whole. Koike, who styles herself as a pro-business Thatcherite, will not stand in the way of growth. Monetary policy will remain dovish: The dovish shift in the Bank of Japan in 2013 was a regime change within the institution itself. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda was the leader of the change, but since then the entire policy board has been staffed with doves. In fact, in the board's recent minutes, the only dissenting voice argued for more stimulus.26 Kuroda can legally be reappointed for governor for another five years. If not, his replacement will likely perpetuate his legacy, as neither Abe nor Koike have given any hint at wanting more hawkish monetary policy. The market is right to expect barely any rate hikes over the next year and for the BoJ to continue suppressing yields even as other DM central banks become more hawkish (Chart 27). Chart 26Tight Labor Market, But Still No Inflation Chart 27Monetary Policy Will Remain Easy Fiscal policy will ease further: We have shown Chart 28 again and again to clients: the main failure of Abenomics so far has been Abe's own fiscal responsibility. Upon calling the election, he yet again pitched himself to voters on the basis of fiscal irresponsibility. He offered a new 2 trillion yen stimulus package and suspended his pledge to balance the budget by 2020. And while he pledged to pay for education and elderly care by raising the consumption tax from 8% to 10% as scheduled in October 2019, few doubt that he will delay a tax hike (as in 2015) if it threatens to upset his economic recovery. Meanwhile, Koike is running on a platform of easier fiscal policy: she has outright opposed the consumer tax hike, saying that to do so would be to "throw cold water on the still-intangible economic recovery." She wants more earthquake-resistant infrastructure and more social spending (e.g. childcare). She wants measures to boost the female participation rate further (Chart 29).She is hardly likely to boost consumption without continuing Abe's quest to lift wages overall (Chart 30). And in her most significant difference from Abe, she hopes to do away with nuclear power and turn Japan into a renewable energy powerhouse (inevitably requiring large-scale government subsidies and investment). Foreign policy will remain hawkish: Koike is a conservative who is in favor of constitutional revisions to normalize Japan's military. Her Party of Hope could even vote with the LDP on this issue, for a price. While it may be somewhat more China-friendly than Abe (possibly a boon for exports), it would not be willing or able to break Japan's recent trend of rising defense spending and economic diplomacy. Chart 28Fiscal Policy Will Get Easier Chart 29Abe And Koike Want Women Workers Chart 30Abe And Koike Want Higher Wages Moreover, given that Japan has a much higher ratio of public investment to private investment than other comparable countries, and that fiscal spending is limited by a massive debt load, Koike would be committed to boosting private investment just like Abe (Chart 31). Indeed, judging solely by key policy planks, the Party of Hope could almost become an LDP coalition partner. It cannot win a majority without Koike as frontrunner, and even if it did, it would lead to a fractious parliament where it would be forced to cooperate with the LDP in order to pass bills through the LDP-dominated upper house. Koike's sudden emergence does not represent a shift in national trends but rather a confirmation of the post-2011 Japanese political consensus in favor of a dovish central bank, dovish fiscal policy, and hawkish foreign policy. Chart 31Abe And Koike Want Private Investment Chart 32Not Abandoning Nuclear Power Anytime Soon Bottom Line: As things stand, Abe will probably lose his supermajority yet retain his majority in the lower house. This will cause some volatility and policy uncertainty in Japan. Nevertheless, the outlook is still highly reflationary. Koike reveals that the median voter favors pushing Abenomics even further. Should Koike make a dash for the prime minister's slot, she does have a small chance of coming to power. It is hard to put a probability on it until more polling data is available. The biggest policy consequence of a Party of Hope-led government would be her energy agenda of weaning Japan off of nuclear power, which would in the first instance shrink the current account surplus, as during the nuclear shutdown following the Tohoku earthquake in 2011 (Chart 32). However, a Koike majority is unlikely to materialize as things stand, and the LDP in the upper house would be a check on such policies. Go long USD/JPY in expectation of more reflation. Marko Papic, Senior Vice President Chief Geopolitical Strategist marko@bcaresearch.com Matt Gertken, Associate Vice President Geopolitical Strategy mattg@bcaresearch.com Jim Mylonas, Vice President Client Advisory & BCA Academy jim@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Secession In Europe: Scotland And Catalonia," dated May 14, 2014, and BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Can Equities And Bonds Continue To Rally?" dated September 20, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see BBC, "Catalan referendum: Catalonia has 'won right to statehood,'" dated October 2, 2017, available at bbc.com. 3 We are referencing poll numbers collected by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió, which is run by the pro-independence government of Catalonia. In other words, if biased, the polls should be biased towards independence. 4 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, "Climbing The Wall Of Worry In Europe," dated February 15, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 5 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "Constraints And Preferences Of The Trump Presidency," dated November 30, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 6 Apparently, the Democrats! Democratic leaders in Congress oppose tax reform policy that is not revenue-neutral. However, the GOP can ignore them as they plan to use the reconciliation procedure to pass tax policy. 7 Please see John Carney, "Mainstream Media Distort Every Single Thing Gary Cohn Says About GOP Tax Plan," dated September 30, 2017, available at breitbart.com. 8 The announced tax reform plan does not include such a proposal - nor does it provide any detail on how tax cuts would be paid for - but it has been floated as a possibility. This is because it could save the government nearly $370 billion by 2020, according to a report from the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation. 9 For revenue offsets that are likely to pass, we combine the repatriation of foreign earnings ($138 billion over the next decade), the repeal of certain corporate tax breaks ($138 billion), and the repeal of certain individual tax expenditures ($385 billion). We roughly estimate that the offset would total $400 billion, as horse-trading in Congress is likely to reduce the eventual size of overall revenue-offsets. The path of least resistance in Congress is towards more deficit spending, not less. 10 Please see BCA Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Is The Phillips Curve Dead Or Dormant?" dated September 22, 2017, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 11 Please see The Bank Credit Analyst Special Report, "Did Amazon Kill The Phillips Curve?" dated August 31, 2017, available at bca.bcaresearch.com. 12 We recently closed our recommendation of being long Euro Area equities relative to the U.S. in an unhedged position for a 7.88% gain. 13 Please see "China: Xi Is A 'Core' Leader ... So What?" in BCA Geopolitical Strategy Monthly Report, "De-Globalization," dated November 9, 2016; "China: How Far Will Deleveraging Go?" in Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Northeast Asia: Moonshine, Militarism, And Markets," dated May 24, 2017; and Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "China: Looking Beyond The Party Congress," dated July 19, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 14 Please see BCA Emerging Market Strategy Weekly Report, "Copper Versus Money/Credit In China - Which One Is Right?" dated September 6, 2017, available at ems.bcaresearch.com. 15 Please see BCA Foreign Exchange Strategy Weekly Report, "ECB: All About China?" dated April 7, 2017, available at fes.bcaresearch.com. 16 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Northeast Asia: Moonshine, Militarism, And Markets," dated May 24, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 17 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "The Wrath Of Cohn," dated July 26, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 18 The problem still partially exists, as the opposition remains divided by various parties, and left-wing members of the Democratic Party have formed a new Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan that will contest the election and compete with the Party of Hope as well as the ruling LDP. 19 Incidentally, she is one of Koizumi's disciples who can count on his support. 20 According to Shinjiro Koizumi, "If she runs it's irresponsible, if she doesn't run it's irresponsible ... she's in a 'dilemma of irresponsibility.'" Quoted in Robin Harding, "Yuriko Koike hits trouble in Japan election campaign," Financial Times, October 2, 2017, available at www.ft.com. 21 The 22-seat loss referred to above occurred under the leadership of Takeo Miki in 1976. 22 There have been only two occasions in which a multi-term prime minister like Abe lost power due to holding a general election - 1960 and 1972. In the latter, comparable case, Eisaku Sato, who had been in power for eight years, lost power despite the fact that economic growth had recovered from a slight slowdown in 1971. In other words, the lack of enthusiasm for Abe amid a recovering economy is an important warning sign, which we discussed in BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "Insights From The Road - Asia," dated August 30, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 23 It will also be important to see if leading politicians continue to defect from other parties and flock to her ranks. Especially politicians from the LDP, and especially those who are not worried, like Mineyuki Fukuda, about losing their seats anyway. 24 It also neglects recent reforms to the electoral system that will eliminate ten seats, only one of which is likely to go to the Party of Hope. 25 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, "The Wrath Of Cohn," dated July 26, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 26 Please see Bank of Japan, "Summary Of Opinions At The Monetary Policy Meeting," September 20-21, 2017, p. 5, available at www.boj.or.jp/en.

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of September 29th, 2017. The model sharply reduced its allocation to the U.K. to a bare minimum in response to the tightening in liquidity condition as the Bank of England warned of a rate hike in "coming months." The funds are reallocated to the Spain and Germany. Other smaller changes are the reductions in Italy and Australia in favor of Sweden and Switzerland, as shown in Table 1. As shown in Table 2 and Charts 1, 2 and 3, the overall model outperformed its benchmark by 44 bps in September. Both level 1 and level 2 models performed well, with level 2 outperforming its benchmark by 63 bps and level 1 outperforming its benchmark by 9 bps, as the underweight in Australia, U.S. and Japan versus the overweight in Italy, Germany and Netherland worked very well. Since going live in January 2016, the overall model has outperformed the benchmark by 341 bps, largely from the allocation among the 11 non-U.S. countries, which has outperformed its benchmark by 743 bps. Chart 1GAA DM Model Vs. MSCI World Chart 2GAA U.S. Vs. Non U.S. Model (Level1) Chart 3GAA Non U.S. Model (Level 2) Table 1Model Allocation Vs. Benchmark Weights Table 2Performance (Total Returns In USD) Please see also on the website http://gaa.bcaresearch.com/trades/allocation_performance. For more details on the models, please see the January 29th, 2016 Special Report, "Global Equity Allocation: Introducing the Developed Markets Country Allocation Model." http://gaa.bcaresearch.com/articles/view_report/18850. Please note that the overall country and sector recommendations published in our Monthly Portfolio Update and Quarterly Portfolio Outlook use the results of these quantitative models as one input, but do not stick slavishly to them. We believe that models are a useful check, but structural changes and unquantifiable factors need to be considered too in making overall recommendations. GAA Equity Sector Selection Model The GAA Equity Sector Selection Model (Chart 4) is updated as of September 30, 2017. Chart 4Overall Model Performance Table 3Allocations Table 4Performance Since Going Live The model continues to be optimistic on global growth as seen by an increasing allocation to cyclical sectors. Additionally, the model has also reduced its underweight on consumer discretionary stocks, which is currently the only cyclical sector to have a below-benchmark allocation. Finally, the biggest shift was a downgrade in utilities from overweight to underweight. This was primarily driven by momentum. For more details on the model, please see the Special Report "Introducing The GAA Equity Sector Selection Model," July 27, 2016 available at https://gaa.bcaresearch.com. Xiaoli Tang, Associate Vice President xiaoli@bcaresearch.com Aditya Kurian, Research Analyst adityak@bcaresearch.com

Highlights Recommendation Allocation The global growth outlook remains strong, with corporate earnings likely to beat expectations for a couple more quarters. Inflation and Fed policy are key to asset allocation. We expect inflation to recover, which will push up interest rates and the dollar. But uncertainty is rising too: for example the composition of the FOMC next year, Chinese policy post the Party Congress, Geopolitics. We keep our pro-risk tilts, particularly overweights in euro area and Japanese equities, U.S. high-yield bonds, private equity, and cyclical sectors. But we reduce portfolio risk by bringing some allocations closer to benchmark, for example downgrading U.S. equities to neutral and reducing the underweight in EM. Feature Overview Growth Is Picking Up - But So Is Uncertainty The outlook for global economic growth remains almost unarguably positive (Chart 1). The key for asset allocation, then, comes down to whether inflation in the U.S. will rebound, and whether therefore the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy in line with its current projections. This would likely cause long-term interest rates to rise and the dollar to appreciate, which would be positive for developed market equities and credit, but negative for government bonds, emerging market equities and commodities. This scenario has been our expectation - and the basis of our recommendations - for some time, and it remains so. In September, the market started coming around to our view - after months of pricing in that inflation would stay sluggish (which, therefore, had caused the euro and yen, government bonds, EM equities and commodities to perform well). In just a couple of weeks, the futures-market-priced probability of a December Fed hike has moved from 31% to 75%. This was triggered by little more than stabilization of core CPI (Chart 2), due mainly to shelter inflation, which anyway has a low weight in the core PCE inflation data that the Fed most closely watches. To us, this demonstrates just how sensitive the market is to any slight pickup in inflation, due to the fact that its expectations of Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months are so far below what the FOMC is signaling (Chart 3). Chart 1Lead Indicators Looking Good Chart 2Is The Softness In Inflation Over? Chart 3The Market Still Doesn't Believe The Fed However, a risk to BCA's view is that the Fed turns dovish. Even Janet Yellen, in the press conference after the FOMC meeting on 20 September, admitted that the Fed needs "to figure out whether the factors that have lowered inflation are likely to prove persistent". If they do, she said, "it would require an alteration of monetary policy." FOMC member (and notable dove) Lael Brainard, in an important speech earlier in September, laid out the argument that, since inflation has missed the Fed's 2% target for five years, inflation expectations have been damaged (Chart 4) and that only a period during which inflation overshot could repair them. With Yellen's term due to expire next February and four other vacancies on the FOMC, personnel changes could significantly change the Fed's direction. Online prediction sites give a somewhat high probability to President Trump's replacing Yellen, with (the rather more hawkish) Kevin Warsh, a Fed governor in 2006-11 (Chart 5). However, presidents tend to like loose monetary policy - President Trump has said as much himself - which raises the possibility of his trying to steer the Fed in a direction that is more tolerant of rising inflation. A possible scenario, then, is of an accommodative Fed which allows equities markets to have a final meltup for this cycle, similar to 1999. Chart 4Have Inflation Expectations Been Damaged? Chart 5Who Will Trump Choose To Lead The Fed? Another current source of uncertainty is China. Money supply growth there has slowed sharply this year, after being pushed upwards by the government's reflationary policies in late 2015. This historically has been a good lead indicator of growth and, indeed, many cyclical indicators have surprised to the downside recently (Chart 6). It is also hard to predict whether, after October's five-yearly Communist Party congress, newly re-elected President Xi Jinping will move ahead with implementing structural reforms, even at the expense of a short-term slowdown of growth.1 We continue to think that risk assets have further upside for this cycle. Growth is likely to remain strong, the probability of a U.S. tax cut is rising, and corporate earnings should surprise to the upside for another couple of quarters (Q3 S&P500 EPS consensus forecasts remain cautious at 5% YoY, versus our model which suggests double-digit growth). Nonetheless, the cycle is now mature, global equities have already produced a total return of almost 40% since their recent bottom in February last year, and valuations in almost every asset class are stretched (Chart 7). Moreover, geopolitical risks - such as that from North Korean missiles - will not disappear quickly. We continue to pencil in the possibility of a recession in 2019 or 2020, caused by a sharp rise in inflation, especially in the U.S., which the Fed - whoever is running it - would have to stamp on by raising rates above the equilibrium level. Chart 6Is A Downturn Coming In China? Chart 7Nothing Looks Cheap Therefore, on the 12-month horizon we continue to recommend pro-risk and pro-cyclical positioning, for example an overweight in equities versus fixed income. However, given the rising uncertainty, we are reducing the scale of our bets a little and so, for example among our equity country and regional recommendations, move a little closer to benchmark by lowering the U.S. to neutral and reducing the degree of our underweight in EM. Garry Evans, Senior Vice President Global Asset Allocation garry@bcaresearch.com What Our Clients Are Asking How worried should we be about North Korea? Chart 8Threats - But Eventually A Diplomatic Solution President Obama reportedly warned President Trump just prior to inauguration that North Korea would be his biggest headache. After 15 missile launches and a nuclear test this year (Chart 8, panel 1), investors are beginning to think the same. How big is the risk that the tension turns into warfare? BCA's Geopolitical strategists have written about the subject extensively.2 They conclude that military action is unlikely. An U.S. attack on North Korean missile or nuclear sites would simply provoke an attack with conventional weapons on Seoul, which is only 50 km from the border. Kim Jong-un undoubtedly knows that if he were to attack Guam or Japan, his country would be wiped out. In the end, then, a diplomatic solution is likely - but this will only be achieved after tension has risen sufficiently to force the two sides to the negotiating table. The analogy is Iran in 2012-15, where sanctions finally forced it to agree to a 10-year freeze in its nuclear plans. For the moment, sanctions seem unlikely to bite. North Korea's trade with China is not yet notably slowing (Chart 8, panel 2) and its GDP growth actually accelerated last year, albeit from stagnating levels, according to estimates from the Bank of Korea (Chart 8, panel 3). So the cycle of new threats and tougher sanctions will continue for a while. Historically, North Korean provocations caused related markets (such as South Korea stocks) to fall sharply for a few days, but this always represented a buying opportunity (Chart 8, panel 4). Given the likelihood of a diplomatic outcome, we think this remains a good rule of thumb. What will happen after China's 19th Party Congress, and will there be a slowdown in the economy? China's twice-a-decade National Party Congress will be held October 18-25. The outcome of the meeting could have important economic and market consequences. The key purpose of the Congress is to rotate China's political leaders. The 19th Party Congress is crucial because it marks the passing of a generation: President Xi Jinping will receive a second five-year term, but is predicted to consolidate his power by placing a younger generation of leaders who support his structural reforms into key positions. When Xi came to power, his reform agenda included de-emphasizing GDP targets; injecting private capital, competition and market discipline into the state-owned corporate sector; and fighting pollution. This agenda has since been compromised, with Xi reverting to infrastructure spending and credit growth to avoid painful adjustments. However, recently, there have been signs of a pullback in reflationary policies (Chart 9). Financial tightening is a key to reviving reform. Tighter controls on banks and leverage will translate into greater market discipline, and will put pressure on the sector most in need of change: SOEs. During the twice-a-decade National Financial Work Conference In late July, Yang Weimin, a key economic policymaker who is close to Xi, said, "The nation can't let leverage rise for the purpose of boosting economic expansion," signaling that the administration is willing to tackle difficult reform issues. He also mentioned the potential risks in the economy such as shadow banking, property bubbles, high leverage in SOEs, and local government debt, adding that the nation should set out its priorities and tackle them. Though it is impossible to predict the precise outcome of the Congress, the leadership reshuffle is likely to benefit Xi's reform agenda. The new leadership is likely to work on rebalancing growth toward consumption and services while encouraging private entrepreneurship and cutting back state-owned enterprises and, most importantly, deleveraging corporate debt. If China's credit impulse rolls over, the recent improvement in industrial profits and domestic demand will come under threat (Chart 9). As a result, China's cyclical growth is set to slow in 2018 as Xi reboots reform. Although economic risks will rise as the reform takes place, we still believe China H shares are attractive relative to other EM markets. In the long run, Xi's renewed reform drive should help China to get out of the "middle income trap'', which could help Chinese stocks to outperform EMs such as South Africa, Turkey and Brazil, where reforms are absent.3 Are Indian equities still a buy? In the three years since Prime Minister Narendra Modi's election, Indian stock prices have outperformed their emerging market peers by more than 20%. But the underlying growth dynamics do not justify this performance. We are turning cautious on India and downgrade Indian equities to neutral for the following reasons. India's GDP growth rate fell to a three-year low of 5.7% yoy in the April-June quarter. The administration's "Make In India" campaign is having limited impact, as seen in the near-zero growth of the manufacturing sector. Capital spending by firms has been dismal, further weighing on the outlook for productivity. Increasing layoffs and business shutdowns have produced considerable slack in the economy. Non-performing loans in the banking system have reached 11.8% of assets. As a result, credit growth to business has fallen almost to zero. This has slowed infrastructure development, as seen in the high level of stalled capital projects. The Reserve Bank of India has only just started the process of pushing banks to raise provisioning for distressed assets. The negative impact of last year's demonetization program is finally showing through. Less than 10% of Indians have ever used non-cash payment methods, and so demand for cyclical goods is slowing. Finally, Indian stocks have risen significantly in recent years, making them expensive relative to EM peers. In addition, profit growth has slowed, and return on equity converged with the EM average. Indian equities have been riding on expectations of reforms from the Modi administration. But, with the exception of the Goods & Services Tax (GST), the reform progress has been disappointing. We are turning cautious on Indian equities until we see improvements in the macro backdrop (Chart 10). Chart 9Sign of slowdown in Chinese Economy Chart 10India: Loosing Steam? How should global equity investors hedge foreign currency exposures? Chart 11Dynamic Hedging Outperforms Static Hedging There have been many conflicting views on how to hedge foreign currency exposures in a global equity portfolio. Full hedge,4 no hedge,5 or simply 50% hedge?6 Or should all investors hold the reserve currencies (USD, euro and Swiss Franc), avoid commodities currencies (AUD and CAD) while being neutral on GBP and JPY?7 As published in a Special Report 8 on September 29, 2017, our research has found that not only should investors with different home currencies manage their foreign currency exposures differently, but also a dynamic hedging framework based on the indicators from BCA's Foreign Exchange Strategy service's Intermediate Timing Model (ITTM)9 outperforms all the static hedging strategies for all investors with six different home currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD and CAD) (Chart 11). A few key observations from Chart 11 Static hedges reduces risk with little impact on returns for the USD and JPY investors only. Unlike the CAD investors, the AUD investors are much better off to hedge than not to, on a risk adjusted basis, even though AUD is also a commodity currencies, like the CAD. The 50% "least regret" hedge ratio has lived up to its reputation as it reduced risk by more than 50% without severely jeopardizing returns. And for the USD based investors, the 50% static hedge has a similar risk/return profile as the dynamic hedge. For all other five home currencies, however, the 50% static hedge underperforms the dynamic hedge. Global Economy Overview: Globally growth has accelerated, with inflation quiescent. We expect growth to continue to be strong, but U.S. inflation will start to normalize, which should trigger further Fed hikes and a rise in long-term rates. Japanese and euro zone growth will be less inflationary, given continued slack in these economies. U.S.: Growth has rebounded sharply after the seasonally weak Q1 and excessive expectations following the presidential election. The Citi Economic Surprise Index (Chart 12, panel 1) shows strong upward surprises. First-half GDP growth came in at 2.2% (above trend, which is estimated at 1.8%), and the manufacturing ISM reached 57.7 in September. The two big hurricanes will probably knock around 0.5 points off Q3 growth but the lesson from previous disasters is that this will be more than made up over the following three quarters. Rebounding capex, and consumption aided by a probable acceleration in wages, should keep GDP growth strong. Euro Area: Due to Europe's greater cyclicality and dependence on the global cycle, growth momentum is unsurprisingly even stronger than in the U.S., with Q2 GDP growth 2.3% YoY and the manufacturing PMI at 57.4. German growth has been particularly robust with the IFO index at 115.9, close to an all-time high, and German manufacturing wages growing by 2.9% YoY. The credit impulse suggests that the strong growth should continue, although the euro appreciation this year (and consequent tightening of financial conditions) might dampen it a little. Japan: Growth continues to be good in the external sector (with exports rising 18% YOY and industrial production 5%), but weak in the domestic economy, where household spending and core inflation continue to flatline. We do, though, see some first tentative signs of inflation: the Bank of Japan's estimate suggests the output gap has now closed, and the tight labor market is showing through in part-time hourly wages, which are rising 2.9%. Emerging Markets: China's PMI has oscillated around 50 all year (Chart 13, panel 3), as the authorities tried to stabilize growth ahead of October's Party Congress. But money supply and credit growth have been slowing all year, and this is now showing through in downside surprises in fixed asset investment and retail sales data. Especially if the congress moves towards structural reform and short-term pain, growth may slow further. This would be negative for other emerging markets, which depend on China for growth. Bank loan growth and domestic consumption generally remain weak throughout EM ex China. Chart 12Global Growth Is Accelerating... Chart 13...Propelling Europe And Japan Interest Rates: Inflation has been soft this year in the U.S. but is likely to pick up in coming months reflecting stronger economic growth and dollar depreciation. We expect the Fed to raise rates in December and confirm its three hikes next year. That should be enough to push the 10-year Treasury yield up to close to 3%. In Japan and the euro area, however, underlying inflationary pressures are much weaker. So we expect the Bank of Japan to stick to its yield curve control policy, and for the ECB to emphasize, when it announces in October next year's (reduced) asset purchase program, that it will be cautious about raising rates. Global Equities Chart 14Earnings Have Been Strong... Q3 2017 was the second quarter in a row when the price appreciation in global equities was driven entirely by earnings growth, since the forward price-to-earnings ratio contracted by 2% compared to Q2 (Chart 14). Chart 15No Compelling Reasons To Make Large Bets The scope of the improvement in earnings so far in 2017 has been wide. Not only are forward earnings being revised up, but 12-month trailing earnings growth has also been very strong, with all 10 top-level sectors registering positive earnings growth. Margins have steadily improved globally from the lows in early 2016. Despite the slight multiple compression in Q3, equity valuations are not cheap by historical standards. As an asset class, however, equities are still attractively valued compared to bonds, especially after the recent safe-haven buying drove global bond yields to very depressed levels. We remain overweight equities versus bonds on the 9-12 month horizon. Within equities, however, we think it's prudent to reduce portfolio risk by bringing allocations closer to benchmark weighting because 1) equities are not cheap, 2) volatility is low, 3) geopolitical tension is rising, and 4) year-on-year earnings growth over coming quarters may not be as strong as it has been so far this year because earnings in the first half of the 2016 were very depressed. As such, we downgrade the U.S. to neutral from overweight (+3 percentage points), and reduce the underweight in EM (to -2 from -5). We remain overweight the euro area and Japan (but hedge the yen exposure). Within EM, we have been more positive on China and remain so on a 6-9 month horizon. Sector-wise, we maintain our pro-cyclical tilt. Country Allocations: Downgrade U.S. To Neutral We started the year being "cautiously optimistic" with a maximum overweight (+6 ppts) in U.S. equities.10 We added risk at the end of the first quarter by reducing by half the U.S. overweight in order to upgrade the higher-beta euro area to overweight (+3) from neutral.11 The change has worked well, as the euro area outperformed the U.S. by 542 basis points (bps) in Q2 and then by 370 bps in Q3 in unhedged USD terms. Our DM-only quant model also started the year with a maximum overweight in the U.S., but the overweight was gradually reduced each month until July when the model indicated a benchmark weight for the U.S. The model continued its shift away from the U.S. in August and September, and now the U.S. is the largest underweight in the model. As we have previously stated, we use the quant model as one key input into our decision-making process, but we do not follow it slavishly because 1) no model can capture all the ever-changing driving forces in the market, and 2) the model moves more often than we prefer. In light of the rising geopolitical risks and low levels of volatility in all asset classes, we conclude that there are no longer compelling reasons to make large bets among the countries (Chart 15). Valuation in the U.S. is stretched, but neither is it cheap in EM anymore; both trailing and forward earnings growth in the U.S. are below the global average. Forward earnings in the EM look likely to outpace the global average, but EM trailing earnings growth seems to be losing steam. As such, we recommend investors to be neutral in the U.S. and use the funds to reduce the underweight in EM. Sector Allocation: Stay Underweight Global Utilities Overall, our sector positioning retains its tilt towards cyclicals and against defensives (see Table 1). Our global sector quant model, however, in September reduced its underweight in defensives by upgrading utilities to overweight from underweight, mainly due to the momentum factor. We have decided to overwrite the model result and maintain our underweight recommendation for the following reasons. In October, the model again downgraded utilities to underweight. In the most recent cycle post the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the relative performance of utilities has been closely correlated with the performance of bonds vs. equities (Chart 16, top panel). This is not surprising given the bond-like nature of the sector. The sector enjoys a higher dividend yield than the global average: other than during the GFC, the excess yield has been in the range of 1-2%. In a low bond-yield environment, this yield pick-up is no doubt attractive. However, our house view is for global bond yields to rise over the next 9-12 months and we maintain our overweight on equities vs. bonds. As such, underweight utilities is in line with our overall risk/return assessment. In addition, even though the utilities sector has a higher dividend yield, the current reading is not particularly attractive compared to the five-year average (panel 4); valuation measures such as price to book (panel 3) show a neutral reading as well. The other sector where we override our quant model is Healthcare, which we favor as a long-term play because of favorable demographic trends, while the quant model points to an underweight due to short-term factors such as momentum and valuation. Smart Beta Update Year-to-date, the equal-weighted multi-factor portfolio has outperformed the global benchmark by 54 basis point (bps). (Table 1 and Chart 17) Among the five most enduring factors - size, value, quality, minimum volatility, and momentum - momentum is the only factor that has prevailed in both DM and EM universes, while quality has outperformed in the DM, but underperformed in EM. (Table 1) Chart 16Maintain Underweight Utilities Chart 17MSCI ACW: Factor Relative Performance Value has underperformed growth across the board (Table 1). The size performance, however, has large regional divergences in both value and growth spaces. Small cap has outperformed large cap consistently in both the value and growth spaces in the higher-beta euro area, Japan and U.K., while underperforming in the lower-beta U.S. (Table 2) We maintain our neutral view on styles and prefer to use sector positioning to implement the underlying factors given the historically close correlation between styles and cyclicals versus defensives (Chart 17, bottom two panels). Year-to-date cyclicals have outperformed defensives (Table 1). Table 1YTD Relative Performance* Table 2YTD Total Returns* (%) Small Cap - Large Cap Government Bonds Maintain Slight Underweight Duration. U.S. bond yields declined significantly in Q3 to below fair-value levels in response to heightened geopolitical risks and hurricanes (Chart 18, top panel). This safe-haven buying spread globally, despite ample evidence of faster global growth (middle panel) and less accommodative monetary policies from the major central banks. There is now considerable upside risk for global bond yields from these current low levels. Maintain Overweight TIPS Vs. Treasuries. The fall in nominal U.S. Treasury yields, however, was concentrated in the real yields, as 10-year break-even inflation widened in Q3 (Chart 18, panel 3). In terms of relative value, TIPS are now fairly valued vs. nominal bonds. However, our U.S. Bond Strategy's core PCE model, which closely tracks the 10-year TIPS breakeven rate (Chart 18, panel 3), is sending the message that inflationary pressures are building in the economy and that core PCE should reach the Fed's 2% target by the end of this year. This suggests that the bond markets are not providing adequate compensation for the inflationary economic backdrop. Underweight Canadian Government Bonds. The Bank of Canada (BOC) delivered another surprise 25 bps rate hike in September, due to "the impressive strength of the Canadian economy" and "the more synchronized global expansion that was supporting higher industrial commodity prices." BCA's Global Fixed Income Strategy has been underweight Canada in its hedged global portfolio and recommends investors not to fight the BOC despite little inflation pressure in the Canadian economy (Chart 19). Chart 18Poor Value in Nominal Government Bonds Chart 19Bank of Canada: Shock Hawks Corporate Bonds As inflation recovers and the Fed moves ahead with rate hikes, we expect long-term risk-free rates to rise moderately. Fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently close to 2.7%. In the context of rising rates and continued economic expansion, we continue to prefer spread product over government bonds. Investment grade bonds in the U.S. trade at an average option-adjusted spread over Treasuries of 110 bps. While Aaa corporate spreads are expensive, other investment grade credit tiers appear fairly valued. Given the deterioration in our U.S. Corporate Health Monitor (Chart 20), amid a rise in leverage, over the past two years (Chart 21) we do not expect the spread to contract further or fall back close to historic lows. However, investors should still be moderately attracted by the carry in a low interest rate environment. Our preference is for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds over European ones, since the latter could be negatively impacted when the ECB announces its tapering of asset purchases in October. High-yield bonds look attractive after a small rise in spreads and an improvement in the cyclical outlook over the past quarter. The current spread of U.S. high-yield, 360 bps, translates into a default-adjusted yield (assuming a 2.6% default rate and 49% recovery rate over the next 12 months) of 250 bps - close to the long-run average (Chart 22). European junk debt looks less attractive from a valuation perspective. Chart 20Corporate Health Is A Worry In The U.S. Chart 21IG Spreads Unlikely To Contract Further Chart 22High-Yield Debt Valuations Look Attractive Commodities Chart 23Mixed View Towards Commodities Secular perspective: Bearish We hold a bearish secular outlook for commodities, mainly due to our view on China's slowing economic growth and the increasing shift from traditional energy sources to alternatives. Cyclical perspective: Neutral Our short-term commodities view remains neutral since oil inventory drawdowns will push up the crude oil price further, and because low real interest rates will keep gold from falling this year. But industrial metals are likely to react negatively to the winding down of China's reflation after the Party Congress in mid-October. Precious metal: Short-term bullish, long-term bearish. We expect the Fed to tighten rates only slowly which, over time, will mean the central bank finds itself behind the curve on inflation. Real rates are expected to remain relatively low for the foreseeable future, which will be supportive of gold. Rising tension between North Korea and the U.S. could also give gold a lift. Industrial metals: Bearish The copper price has rallied by 10% during Q3 2017, thanks to supply-side disruptions at some of the world's largest copper mines, along with better-than-expected performance of the Chinese economy. However, mine interruptions will be transitory, and the world copper market is already back in balance (Chart 23, panel 3). Although the rebound in the Chinese PMI is keeping metal prices up, we believe China after the Party Congress will try to reengineer its economy towards being more consumption and services-led, which will temper demand for industrial metals. Energy: Bullish We believe that market has been overly pessimistic on oil, and that this will change due to declining inventories and better demand and supply dynamics. (Chart 23) The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised down its shale production forecast for 2H 2017 by 200,000 barrels/day, which should lower investors' concerns over shale overproduction. Libyan oil production, the biggest threat to our bullish oil view, faltered by 300,000/day in August, keeping OPEC in compliance with its promised cuts. Currencies U.S. Dollar: Year to date, the dollar is down by 8% on a trade-weighted basis (Chart 24). However, after a period of underperformance, the U.S. economy is improving relative to its G10 peers, as seen by the strong rebound in the U.S. ISM manufacturing index. Additionally, the pick-up in money velocity points to a recovery in core inflation. As inflation starts to pick up again, markets will discount additional Fed rate hikes. Stay bullish U.S. dollar over the next 12 months. Chart 24U.S. Dollar Recovery? Pound: After a weak start to the year, sterling has recovered all its losses. Strong net FDI inflows have pushed the basic balance back into positive territory. However, Brexit negotiations will impact the financial sector, the largest target for FDI. Additionally, the recent sharp increase in inflation came from the pass-through effect of the weaker currency, and is not reflective of domestic economic activity. We expect increased political uncertainty to weigh down on future growth, forcing the Bank of England to maintain a dovish stance. Stay bearish over the next 12 months. Dollar: On a trade-weighted basis the currency is up 4% year to date, primarily driven by the rally in select metal prices. OECD's measure of output gap still points to substantial slack in the domestic economy, as seen in the downtrend in core inflation and nominal retail sales. However, despite improvements in global trade and domestic real estate activity, the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy easy in response to volatile commodity markets. Stay bearish over the next 12 months. Canadian Dollar: Driven by net portfolio inflows near record highs, the currency is up 6% on a trade-weighted basis so far this year. With improving economic activity, as seen in strong retail sales, the Bank of Canada expects the output gap to close in 2018. However, going forward, oil prices are unlikely to double again, and the combination of elevated indebtedness, bubby house prices and rising rates will create headwinds for the household sector. Stay bearish over the next 12 months. Alternatives Chart 25Favor PE, Real Assets Return Enhancers: Favor private equity vs. hedge funds In 2017 so far, private equity has returned 9%, whereas hedge funds have managed only a 3.5% return (Chart 25). Given their strong performance, private equity firms are raising near-record amounts of capital from investors starved for yield. By contrast, hedge funds continue to underperform both global equities and private equity, as is typical outside of recessions or bear markets. However, increasing concerns about valuations in private markets have pushed private equity dry powder to new highs of $963 billion. We continue to favor private equity over hedge funds, albeit with a more cautious outlook. Within the hedge fund space, we favor event-driven funds over the cycle, and macro funds heading into a recession. Inflation Hedges: Favor direct real estate vs. commodity futures In 2017 to date, direct real estate has returned 3.3%, whereas commodity futures are down over 10%. With energy markets likely to continue to recover lost ground over the coming months, we stress the structural nature of our negative recommendation on commodities. Depressed interest rates will keep financing cheap, making the spread between real estate and fixed income yields attractive. However, the slowdown in commercial real estate has made us more cautious on the overall real estate space. With regards to the commodity complex, the long term transition of China to a service-based economy will continue the structural decline in commodity demand. Continue to favor direct real estate vs. commodity futures. Volatility Dampeners: Favor farmland & timberland vs. structured products In 2017 to date, farmland and timberland have returned 2.2% and 1.5% respectively, whereas structured products have returned 1.4%. Farmland continues to outperform timberland given the latter's lower correlation with growth. Timberland returns have also lagged farmland given the weak recovery in the U.S. housing market. Investors can reduce the volatility of a multi-asset portfolio with the inclusion of farmland and timberland. With regards to structured products, rising rates and deteriorating credit quality in the auto loan market will weigh on returns. Given the Fed's plans to start unwinding its balance sheet this year, increased supply will put upward pressure on spreads. Risks To Our View Our pro-risk positioning would be incorrect if global growth were to slow sharply. But we see little sign that this is a significant risk over the next six to 12 months. Of our three favorite indicators of recession risk, global PMIs remain strong, and the U.S. 10-minus-2 year yield curve is still solidly positive at around 80 BP. Only a small blip up in junk bond spreads in August (Chart 26) is of any concern, and it was probably caused just by geopolitical tensions. With U.S. and European consumption and capex looking strong, probably the biggest risk to global growth would come from China, similar to 2015, if October's Party Congress signals a shift to short-term pain to achieve structural reforms. Perhaps more likely is an upside surprise to growth, with BCA's models - based on consumer and business sentiment - pointing to around 3% real GDP growth in the U.S. and 2½% in the euro area over the coming couple of quarters (Chart 27). Such an acceleration of growth would raise the risk of upside surprises to inflation, which could cause a bigger sell off in bond markets than we currently anticipate. Chart 26Any Need To Worry About Credit Spreads? Chart 27Could Growth Surprise On The Upside? Chart 28Suppose Inflation Stays Stubbornly Low Our positioning is not based on inflation remaining chronically low. But structural changes in the economy could cause this. While the Philips curve has not broken down completely, wage growth in the U.S. is 1-1½% lower than in previous expansions when the unemployment gap was at its current level (Chart 28). Could the Nairu be lower than the Fed's estimate of 4.6%? Has the gig economy somehow changed worker and employer behavior? 1 Please see What Our Clients Are Asking: "What Will Happen After China's 19th Party Congress, And Will There Be A Slowdown In The Economy?" of this report. 2 For their most comprehensive analysis, please see Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, "North Korea: Beyond Satire," dated April 19, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see Geopolitical Strategy Special Report "China: Looking Beyond The Party Congress'' dated July 19, 2017. available at gps.bcaresearch.com). 4 Perold, A and E. Schulman, 1988, "The free lunch in currency hedging: Implications for investment policy and performance standards," Financial Analyst Journal 44, 45-50. 5 Froot K., 1993, "Currency hedging over long horizons," NBER working paper 4355. 6 Michenaud, S., and B., Solnik, 2008, "Applying Regret Theory to Investment Choices: Currency Hedging Decisions," Journal of International Money and Finance 27, 677-694. 7 Campbell, J., K. de Medeiros and L. Viceira, 2010, "Global Currency Hedging," Journal of Finance LXV, 87-122. 8 Please see Global Asset Allocation Special Report, "Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? - A Practical Guide For Global Equity Investors," dated September 29, 2017, available at gaa.bcaresearch.com. 9 Please see Foreign Exchange Strategy "In Search of A Timing Model," dated July 22, 2016, available at fes.bcaresearch.com. 10 Please see Global Asset Allocation, "Quarterly - December 2016," dated December 15, 2016. 11 Please see Global Asset Allocation, "Quarterly - April 2017," dated April 3, 2017. GAA Asset Allocation

Bank Credit Analyst

Highlights We highlighted last month that investors should remain slightly overweight risk assets, but should also hold safe havens given the preponderance of risks. Some of the risks have since faded and the sweet spot for equities is continuing, but the potential for a correction remains elevated. Geopolitics will no doubt remain a threat for 'risk on' trades, although we may be at peak tensions with respect to North Korea. Our models point to an acceleration in growth in the major economies. Our capital spending indicators suggest that animal spirits are stirring in the business sector. In the U.S., fiscal stimulus is back on the table and investors are looking beyond the negative short-term impact of the hurricanes to the growth-enhancing rebuilding that will follow. It is also positive for the stock-to-bond return ratio that our bullish oil scenario is playing out. Stay long oil-related plays. There is a good chance that this year's downtrend in the dollar and government bond yields is over. The rise in both may be halting, but the risks are to the upside now that disappointments on U.S. growth and inflation have likely ended (notwithstanding the hurricane-distorted economic data in the near term). The Phillips curve is not dead. We do not expect Fed balance sheet normalization on its own to be a major headwind for risk assets. The bigger threat is a sudden and sharp re-assessment of the outlook for interest rates in the major countries. Our base-case view is that inflation will only grind higher in the major countries. It should be slow enough that the associated backup in bond yields does not derail the rally in risk assets, but the danger of a sharper bond market adjustment means that investors should continue to be on the conservative side. Feature It was 'risk on' in financial markets in September, despite a less dovish tone among the major central banks. The reason is that the synchronized global growth outlook continues to gather momentum, supporting the earnings backdrop, but inflation remains dormant in the major countries outside of the U.K. Investors believe that calm inflation readings will allow central banks to proceed cautiously and avoid taking risks with growth, extending the expansion in GDP and earnings. The North Korean situation changes from day to day, but investors appear to be more comfortable with it at the margin. In the U.S., fiscal stimulus is back on the table and investors are looking beyond the negative short-term impact of the hurricanes to the growth-enhancing rebuilding that will follow. Finally, rising oil prices will lift earnings in the energy patch. These developments spurred investors to embrace risk assets and carry trades again in September. However, value is poor and signs of froth are accumulating. For example, equity investors are employing record amounts of margin debt to lever up investments. The Bank for International Settlements highlighted in its Quarterly Review that margin debt outstanding in 2015 was higher than during the dotcom boom (and it has surely increased since then). The global volume of outstanding leveraged loans continues to set new highs even as covenant standards slip. Risk assets are being supported by a three-legged stool: solid earnings growth, low bond yields and depressed bond market volatility. The latter is a reflection of current market expectations that dormant inflation will continue to constrain central bankers. We agree that the economic growth and earnings outlook is positive on a 6-12 month horizon. The main item that could upset the sweet spot for risk assets, outside of a geopolitical event, is an awakening in inflation. This would shatter the consensus view that the bond market will remain well behaved. Markets are priced for little change in the inflation backdrop even in the long term. Our base-case view is that inflation will grind higher in the major countries, although it should be slow enough that the associated backup in bond yields does not derail the rally in risk assets in the next 6-12 months. But the risk of a sharper bond market adjustment means that investors should continue to be conservative (although slightly tilted to risk-over-safety). Getting Used To North Korea It appears that investors are becoming increasingly desensitized to provocation from the rogue state. Our geopolitical experts argued that the risk of a full-out war with the U.S. was less than 10%, but they warned that there could be a market-rattling political crisis or even a military skirmish before Pyongyang returned to the negotiating table. However, we may be at peak tensions now, based on several key developments over the past month. First, both China and Russia, two North Korean allies, have turned up the pressure. China appears to be enforcing sanctions according to Chinese trade data vis-à-vis North Korea (Chart I-1). Both China and Russia have also agreed to reduce fuel supplies. And there is evidence that U.S. and North Korea have held unofficial diplomatic talks behind the scenes. The implication is that North Korea is responding to pressure now that its critical fuel supplies are at risk. Chart I-1China Getting Tougher With NK We cannot rule out more goading from Kim Jong Un, especially with a busy political calendar in Asia this fall: the Korean Worker's Party's anniversary on October 10, the Chinese midterm leadership reshuffle on October 11-25, Japanese elections on October 22, and Trump's visit to the region in mid-November. Nevertheless, it would require a major provocation (i.e. a direct attack on the U.S. or its allies) for Pyongyang to escalate tensions from current levels. This would require the North to be very reckless with its own strategic assets, given that the U.S. would likely conduct a proportional retaliation against any serious attack. The recent backup in Treasury yields and yen pullback suggest that investors do not think tensions will escalate that far. We agree, but obviously the situation is fluid. Trump Trades Back In Play? U.S. politics have also become more equity-friendly and bond-bearish at the margin. The risk of a debt ceiling standoff has been delayed until December following President Trump's deal with the Democrats. We do not think that this represents a radical shift toward bipartisanship, but it is warning from the President that the GOP had better get cracking on tax legislation. The House Budget committee passed a FY2018 budget resolution in late July that included "reconciliation instructions" for tax legislation. Such a budget resolution approved by the Congress as a whole would allow for tax cuts that are not fully offset by spending cuts, with the proviso that the tax reductions sunset after a defined number of years. It is difficult to see tax legislation being passed before year end, but the first quarter of 2018 is certainly possible. Markets will begin to price in the legislation well before it is passed, which means that the so-called Trump trades are likely to see a revival. In particular, the legislation should favor small caps and boost the dollar. This year's devastating hurricane activity will also lift U.S. growth in 2018. History shows that natural disasters have only a passing effect on the U.S. economy and financial markets. Following the short-term negative economic impact, rebuilding adds to growth with the Federal government footing part of the bill. A 2016 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report found that federal spending after major hurricanes can add as much as 0.6% to GDP. CBO notes that the lion's share of the economic impact is in the first year after a storm, with most of those expenditures helping victims to obtain food and shelter, fund search and rescue operations, and protect critical infrastructure. Federal outlays for public infrastructure occur after the first year and provide a much smaller lift to GDP (Chart I-2). Chart I-2Federal Government Outlays For Hurricane Relief Oil: Inventories Are Correcting Chart I-3Oil Inventory Correction To Lift Prices It is also positive for the stock-to-bond return ratio that our bullish oil scenario is playing out. Our energy strategists highlight that global oil demand is booming, at a time when the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its estimated shale oil output by 200,000 bpd for the third quarter. This confirms our contention that the EIA has overestimated the pace of the shale production response during 2017. Taken together, these factors helped to improve the global net demand/supply balance by 600,000 bpd. The drawdown in global oil inventories is thus likely to continue (Chart I-3). Looking to next year, crude prices could go even higher with an extension of the OPEC/Russian production cuts beyond March 2018 and continued strong growth in global oil demand. The synchronized global expansion is reflected in rising oil demand from all parts of the world. Soft Industrial Production Readings Won't Last We have highlighted global and regional industrial production as important indicators of both economic growth corporate earnings. It is therefore a little disconcerting that our aggregate for industrial production in the advanced economies has suddenly lost momentum (Chart I-4). We are inclined to fade the recent softening for a few reasons. First, much of it is due to weakness in the U.S. where hurricanes affected the August figures. Second, most of our leading indicators remain very constructive. Chart I-5 present a simple model for real GDP growth for the G4 economies based on our consumer and capital spending indicators. Real GDP growth will continue to accelerate for the G4 economies as a group according to the model. Our aggregate consumer indicator appears to have peaked at a high level, but the capex indicator is blasting off. The bullish capital spending reading is unanimous across the major economies (Chart I-6). Chart I-4Animal Spirits Are Stirring... Chart I-5...Contributing To Stronger G4 Economic Growth Chart I-6Capital Goods Indicators Are Surging The Eurozone is particularly strong on both the consumer and business fronts, suggesting that euro strength has not undermined growth. Conversely, the U.K. is at the weak end of the spectrum based on the drop in its consumer spending indicator. This is the main reason why we do not believe the Bank of England will be able to make good on its warning of a rate hike this year (see below). Robust capital goods imports for our 20-country aggregate supports the view that animal spirits are stirring in boardrooms in the advanced economies (Chart I-4, third panel). These imports and our capital spending indicators suggest that the small pullback in advanced-economy industrial production will not last, purchasing managers' indexes will remain elevated, and the acceleration in global export activity is just getting started. Even U.S. small business sector has shifted into a higher gear in terms of hiring and capital spending according to the NFIB survey. These trends will favor industrial stocks, especially versus utilities. Central Banks Shedding Dovish Feathers The synchronized global growth pickup is also reflected in our Central Bank Monitors, which are all near or above the zero line (Chart I-7). The Monitors gauge pressure on central banks to adjust policy. Current readings are consistent with the relatively more hawkish tone by central bankers in Canada, the U.S., the Eurozone and the U.K. Chart I-7Central Bank Monitors Support Less Dovish Policymakers The violent reaction in the gilt market to the Bank of England's hint that it could hike rates in the next few months highlights the vulnerability of bond markets to any shift by central bankers in a less dovish direction. In this case, we do not believe the BoE will be able to follow through with its rate hike plan. The leading economic indicators are softening and inflation is about to roll over now that the pound has bottomed. In contrast, bunds are quite vulnerable to a more hawkish tilt at the European Central Bank (ECB). Eurozone policymakers confirmed at their September meeting that they plan to announce in October a reduction in the asset purchase program, to take effect in 2018. The ECB revised up its growth forecast for 2017, and left the subsequent two years unchanged. The inflation forecast was trimmed by 0.1 percentage points in 2018 and 2019. The fact that this year's surge in the euro was not enough to move the needle much on the ECB's projections speaks volumes about the central bank's confidence in the current European economic expansion, as well as its comfort level with the rising currency. Our fixed income strategists believe that the full extent of ECB tapering is not yet fully discounted in the European bond market. Phillips Curve: It's Not Dead, Just Resting Chart I-8U.S. Inflation Turning to the Fed, the bond market did not get the dovish tone it was expecting from September's FOMC meeting. Policymakers left a December rate hike on the table, as Chair Yellen downplayed this year's lagging inflation data as well as the impact of the hurricanes on the economy. Not surprisingly, the odds of a December rate hike have since jumped to 70%. The Fed announced its plan to begin shrinking its balance sheet beginning in October. In the press conference, Yellen tried to disassociate balance sheet policy from the rate outlook. Balance sheet adjustment will be on autopilot, such that short-term interest rates will be the Fed's main policy instrument going forward. While the Fed plans to deliver another rate increase in December, it will require at least a small rise in inflation. Policymakers were no doubt pleased that annual CPI core inflation edged up in August and the 3-month rate of change has moved back to 2% (Chart I-8). The CPI diffusion index also moved above the zero line, indicating that the soft patch in the inflation data may be over, although the diffusion index for the PCE inflation data fell back to the zero line. Table I-1 presents the major contributors to the 0.9 percentage point decline in the year-over-year headline CPI inflation rate since February. Energy accounts for the majority of the decline, at 0.6 percentage points. New cars, shelter, medical services and wireless telephone services account for the remainder. The deflationary wireless price effect is now unwinding, but medical services is a wildcard and our shelter model suggests that this large part of the CPI index will probably not help to lift inflation this year. Thus, higher inflation must come largely from non-shelter core services, which is the component most closely correlated with wages. Investors remain unconvinced by Yellen's assertion that the soft patch in the inflation data reflects transitory factors. Indeed, market-based long-term inflation expectations remain well below the Fed's target, and they even fell a little following the FOMC meeting. Table I-1Contribution To Change In Headline ##br##Inflation (February -August, 2017) One FOMC member is becoming increasingly alarmed by the market's disbelief that the Fed will hit the 2% target even in the long run (Chart I-9). In a recent speech, Governor Brainard noted that both market-based and survey evidence on inflation expectations have drifted lower in the post-Lehman years. More recently, long-term inflation breakeven rates and CPI swaps have been surprisingly sticky in the face of the rebound in oil prices. In the Fed's view, monetary policy can be used effectively in response to shifts in the cyclical drivers of inflation. However, if inflation expectations were to become unanchored, then inflation's long-run trend would be altered and monetary policy would become less effective. Japan is a glaring example of what could be the endpoint. Brainard's fears have not yet affected the FOMC consensus, which is loath to throw the Phillips curve model into the dust bin just yet. We agree that the Phillips curve is not dead. Peter Berezin, Chief Strategist for the BCA Global Investment Strategy Service, argued in a recent Special Report that the often-cited reasons for why the Phillips curve has become defunct - decreased union bargaining power, a more globalized economy, and technological trends - are less convincing than they appear. The Fed simply has to be patient because the U.S. is only now reaching the kinked part of the Phillips Curve (Chart I-10). Chart I-9Worrying Trends For The FOMC Chart I-10U.S. Wage Growth Accelerates Once The Unemployment Rate Falls Below 5% (1997-2017) Moreover, our global fixed income team has made the case that the global output gap must be taken into consideration.1 Chart I-11 presents the percentage of OECD economies that have an unemployment rate below the NAIRU rate, along with inflation in the services and goods sectors of the developed markets. While the correlation between this global NAIRU indicator and realized inflation rates declined in the years after the recession, the linkages have improved over the past couple of years. The fact that the global NAIRU indicator is only now back to pre-Lehman levels suggests that inflationary pressure could finally be near an inflection point. Market expectations for the path of real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are roughly in line with the FOMC's central tendency forecast. However, the wide gulf between the FOMC and the market on the path of interest rates remains a potential catalyst for a correction in risk assets if market rates ratchet higher. Fed balance sheet runoff could also be problematic in this regard. QE Unwind: How Much Of A Risk? Many investors equate the surge in asset prices in the years after the Great Financial Crisis with central bank largesse. Won't a reversal of this policy be negative for both bonds and stocks? Fed balance sheet runoff, together with ECB tapering and less buying by the Bank of Japan, will certainly change the supply/demand backdrop for the G4 government bond markets in 2018. We have updated our projection for the net flow of government bonds available to the private sector, taking into consideration the supply that is absorbed by central banks and other official institutions (Chart I-12). The top panel shows that the net supply of Treasurys to the private sector never contracted in recent years, but the bottom panel highlights that the net supply of G4 government bonds as a group was negative for 2015, 2016 and 2017. Central banks and other official buyers had to bid-away bonds from the private sector during these years. Chart I-11Global Slack Matters Chart I-12Major Swing In Government ##br##Bond Supply In 2018 We project that the net supply will swing from a contraction of almost $600 billion in 2017 to a positive net flow of almost US$200 billion next year. The Fed's projected runoff accounts for most of the swing. The supply/demand effect might push up term premia a little. Nonetheless, as discussed in this month's Special Report beginning on page 19, the balance sheet unwind is not the key threat to bonds and stocks. Rather, the main risk is the overly benign central bank outlook that is priced into the bond market. Real 5-year bond yields, five years forward, are still extremely depressed because the market has discounted negative real short-term interest rates out to 2022 in the U.S. and 2026 in the Eurozone (Chart I-13). Chart I-13Real Forward Short-Term Rates Time For The Nikkei To Shine Equity bourses took September's backup in bond yields in stride. Indeed, the S&P 500 and Nikkei broke to new highs during the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 also sprang to life, although has not yet reached fresh highs in local currency terms. The solid earnings backdrop remains a key support for the market. We highlighted our EPS forecasts in last month's report. Nothing of significance has changed on this front. The latest data suggest that operating margins may be peaking, but the diffusion index does not suggest an imminent decline (Chart I-14). Meanwhile, our upbeat economic assessment discussed above means that top line expansion should keep EPS growing solidly into the first half of 2018 at the global level. EPS growth will likely decelerate toward the end of next year to mid-single digits. Chart I-14Operating Margins Approaching A Peak? We still see a case for the Nikkei to outperform the S&P 500, at least in local currencies. Japan is on the cheap side according to our top-down indicator (Chart I-15). Japanese earnings are highly geared to economic growth at home and abroad. Japanese EPS is in an uptrend versus the U.S. in both local and common currencies (Chart I-16). We do not expect to see a peak in EPS growth until mid-2018, a good six months after the expected top in the U.S. Moreover, an Abe win in the October 22 election would mean that policy will remain highly reflationary in absolute terms and relative to the U.S. Chart I-15Valuation: Japan Cheap To The U.S., But Not Europe Chart I-16Japanese Earnings Outperforming The U.S. European stocks are a tougher call. On the plus side, the economy is flying high and there are no warning signs that this is about to end. There is hope for structural reform in France after Macron's election win this year. We give Macron's proposed labor market reforms high marks because they compare favorably with those of Spain and Germany, which helped to diminish structural unemployment in those two countries. Many doubt that Macron's reforms will see the light of day, but our geopolitical team believes that investors are underestimating the chances. The German election in September poured cold water on recent enthusiasm regarding accelerated European integration. This is because Merkel will likely have to deal with a larger contingent of Euroskeptics in the grand coalition that emerges in the coming months. However, we do not expect political developments in Germany to be a headwind for the Eurozone stock market. On the negative side, European stocks do not appear cheap to the U.S. after adjusting for the structural discount (Chart I-15). Moreover, this year's euro bull phase will take a bite out of earnings. As noted in last month's Overview, euro strength so far this year will lop three to four percentage points off of EPS growth by the middle of next year. Our model suggests that this will be overwhelmed by the robust economic expansion at home and abroad, but profit growth could fall to 5%, which is likely to be well short of that in the U.S. and Japan (local currency). Still, a lot of the negative impact of the currency on profits may already be discounted as forward earnings have been revised down. On balance, we remain overweight European stocks versus the U.S. (currency hedged). However, it appears that Japan has more latitude to outperform. Dollar: Finally Finding A Floor? Chart I-17Has The Dollar Found Bottom? The Fed's determination to stick with the 'dot plot' may have finally placed a floor under the dollar. Before the September FOMC meeting, the market had all but priced out any rate hikes between now and the end of 2018. Both the U.S. economic surprise index and the inflation surprise index have turned up relative to the G10 (Chart I-17). The dollar has more upside if we are past the period of maximum bond market strength and moving into in a window in which U.S. economic and inflation surprises will 'catch up' with the other major economies. Technically, investors appear to be quite short the dollar, especially versus the euro. Bullish sentiment on the euro is highlighted by the fact that the currency has deviated substantially from the interest rate parity relationship. Euro positioning is thus bullish the dollar from a contrary perspective. Nonetheless, our currency experts are more bullish the dollar versus the yen. Given that inflation expectations have softened in Japan and wage growth is still lacking, the Bank of Japan will have to stick with its zero percent 10-year JGB target. The yen will be forced lower versus the dollar as the U.S. yield curve shifts up. We also like the loonie. The Bank of Canada (BoC) pulled the trigger in September for the second time this year, lifting the overnight rate to 1%. Policymakers gave themselves some "wiggle room" on the outlook, but more tightening is on the way barring a significant slowdown in growth, another spike in the C$, or a housing meltdown. The statement said that the loonie's rise partly reflected the relative strength of the Canadian economy, which implies that it is justified by the fundamentals. It does not appear that the C$ has reached a "choke point" in the eyes of the central bank. Investment Conclusions: We highlighted in our last issue that investors should remain slightly overweight risk assets, but should also hold safe haven assets given the preponderance of risks. Some of the risks have since faded and the sweet spot for risk assets is continuing. We remain upbeat on global economic growth and earnings. Nonetheless, both stocks and bonds remain vulnerable to any upside surprises on inflation, especially in the U.S. While the positive trends in stock indexes and corporate bond spreads should continue over the coming 6-12 months, there is a good chance that this year's downtrend in the dollar and government bond yields is over. The rise in both may be halting, but the risks are to the upside now that disappointments on U.S. growth and inflation have likely ended (notwithstanding the hurricane-distorted economic data in the near term). The Phillips curve is not dead, which means that it is only a matter of time before inflation begins to find a little traction. Higher oil prices will also provide a tailwind for headline inflation. Geopolitics will no doubt remain a threat for 'risk on' trades, but we may be past the worst in terms of North Korean tension. We also do not expect Fed balance sheet normalization to be a major headwind for risk assets. Nonetheless, the anticipated swing the supply of G4 government bonds to private investors would serve to add to selling pressure in the fixed-income space if inflation is rising in the U.S. and/or Europe at the same time. In other words, the risk relates more to expected policy rates than the Fed's balance sheet. Stay overweight stocks versus bonds, long oil related plays, slightly short in duration in the fixed income space, and long inflation protection. We also recommend returning to long positions on the U.S. dollar. Mark McClellan Senior Vice President The Bank Credit Analyst September 28, 2017 Next Report: October 26, 2017 1 Please see BCA Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Is The Phillips Curve Dead Or Dormant?" dated September 22, 2017, available at gis.bcaresearch.com II. Liquidity And The Great Balance Sheet Unwind Liquidity is the lifeblood of the economy and financial markets, but it is a slippery concept that means different things to different people. Liquidity falls into four categories: monetary, balance sheet, financial market transaction liquidity, and funding liquidity. Overall liquidity conditions are reasonably constructive for risk assets at the moment. Financial market and balance sheet liquidity are adequate. Monetary policy is extremely easy, although the low level of money and credit growth underscores that the credit channel of monetary policy is still somewhat impaired. Funding liquidity is as important as monetary liquidity for financial markets. It has recovered from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) lows, but it is far from frothy. Unwinding the Fed's balance sheet represents a risk to investors because QE played such an important role in reducing risk premia in financial markets. The unwind should not affect transactions liquidity or balance sheet liquidity. It should not affect the broad monetary aggregates either. The bond market's reaction will be far more important than balance sheet shrinkage. As long as the Fed can limit the bond market damage via forward guidance, then funding liquidity should remain adequate and risk assets should take the Fed's unwind in stride. It will be a whole different story, however, if inflation lurches higher. The technical impact of balance sheet unwind on the inner workings of the credit market is very complicated. Asset sales could lead to a shortage of short-term high-quality assets, unless it is offset with increased T-bill issuance. However, a smaller balance sheet could, in fact, improve funding liquidity to the extent that it frees up space on banks' balance sheets. Liquidity has been an integral part of BCA's approach to financial markets going back to the early days of the company under the tutelage of Editor-in-Chief Hamilton Bolton from 1949 to 1968. Bolton was ahead of his time in terms of developing monetary indicators to forecast market trends. Back then, the focus was on bank flows such as the volume of checks cashed because capital markets were still developing and most credit flowed through the banking system. Times changed, monetary policy implementation evolved and financial markets became more important and sophisticated. When money targeting became popular among central banks in the 1970s, central bank liquidity analysis focused more on the broader monetary aggregates. These and other monetary data were used extensively by Anthony Boeckh, BCA's Editor-in-Chief from the 1968 to 2002, to forecast the economy and markets. He also highlighted the importance of balance sheet liquidity (holdings of liquid assets), and its interplay with rising debt levels. Martin Barnes continued with these themes when writing about the Debt Supercycle in the monthly Bank Credit Analyst. "Liquidity" is a slippery concept, and it means different things to different people. In this Special Report, we describe BCA's approach to liquidity and highlight its critical importance for financial markets. We provide a list of indicators to watch, and also outline how the pending shrinkage of the Fed's balance sheet could affect overall liquidity conditions. A Primer On Liquidity We believe there are four types of liquidity that are all interrelated: Central Bank Liquidity: Bank reserves lie at the heart of central bank liquidity. Reserves are under the direct control of the central bank, which are used as a tool to influence general monetary conditions in the economy. The latter are endogenous to the system and also depend on the private sector's desire to borrow, spend and hold cash. Bullish liquidity conditions are typically associated with plentiful bank reserves, low interest rates and strong growth in the monetary aggregates. Balance Sheet Liquidity: A high level of balance sheet liquidity means that plenty of short-term assets are available to meet emergencies. The desire of households, companies and institutional investors to build up balance sheet liquidity would normally increase when times are bad, and decline when confidence is high. Thus, one would expect strong economic growth to be associated with declining balance sheet liquidity, and vice versa when the economy is weak. Of course, deteriorating balance sheet liquidity during good times is a negative sign to the extent that households or business are caught in an illiquid state when the economy turns down, jobs are lost and loans are called. Financial Market Transaction Liquidity: This refers to the ability to make transactions in securities without triggering major changes in prices. Financial institutions provide market liquidity to securities markets through their trading activities. Funding Liquidity: The ability to borrow to fund positions in financial markets. Financial institutions provide funding liquidity to borrowers through their lending activities. The conditions under which these intermediaries can fund their own balance sheets, in turn, depend on the willingness of banks and the shadow banking system to interact with them. The BIS definition of funding liquidity is a broad concept that captures a wide range of channels. It includes the capacity of intermediaries that participate in the securitization chain to access the necessary funding to originate loans, to acquire loans for packaging into securities, and finance various kinds of guarantees. The availability and turnover of collateral for loans is also very important for generating funding liquidity, as we discuss below. These types of liquidity are interrelated in various ways, and can positively or negatively reinforce each other. It is the interaction of these factors that determines the economy's overall ease of financing. See Box II-1 for more details. BOX II-1 How Liquidity Is Inter-Related Central bank liquidity, which is exogenously determined, is the basis for private liquidity creation (the combination of market transaction and funding liquidity). The central bank determines the short-term risk-free rate and the official liquidity that is provided to the banking system. If the central bank hikes rates or provides less official liquidity, appetite for private lending begins to dry up. Private sector liquidity is thus heavily influenced by monetary policy, but can develop a life of its own, overshooting to the upside and downside with swings in investor confidence and risk tolerance. Financial market liquidity and funding liquidity are closely interrelated. When times are good, markets are liquid and funding liquidity is ample. But when risk tolerance takes a hit, a vicious circle between market transaction and funding liquidity develops. The BIS highlights the procyclical nature of private liquidity, which means that it tends to exhibit boom-bust cycles that generate credit excesses that are followed by busts.1 The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 is a perfect example. The Fed lifted the fed funds rate by 400 basis points between 2004 and 2006. Nonetheless, the outsized contraction in private liquidity, resulting from the plunge in asset prices related to U.S. mortgage debt, was a key driver of the crash in risk asset prices. Liquidity Indicators: What To Watch (1) Monetary Liquidity Key measures of central bank liquidity include the monetary base and the broad money aggregates, such as M1 and M2 (Chart II-1). Central banks control the amount of reserves in the banking system, which is part of base money, but they do not control the broad monetary aggregates. The latter is determined by the desire to hold cash and bank deposits, as well as the demand and supply of credit. Box II-2 provides some background on the monetary transmission process and quantitative easing. BOX II-2 The Monetary Transmission Process And Qe Before the Great Recession and Financial Crisis, the monetary authorities set the level of short-term interest rates through active management of the level of bank reserves. Reserves were drained as policy tightened, and were boosted when policies eased. The level of bank reserves affected banks' lending behavior, and shifts in interest rates affected the spending and investment decisions of consumers and businesses. Of course, it has been a different story since the financial crisis. Once short-term interest rates reached the zero bound, the Fed and some other central banks adopted "quantitative easing" programs designed to depress longer-term interest rates by aggressively buying bonds and thereby stuffing the banking system with an excessive amount of reserves. Many feared the onset of inflation when QE programs were first announced because investors worried that this would contribute to a massive increase in credit and the overall money supply. Indeed, there could have been hyper-inflation if banks had gone on a lending spree. But this never happened. Banks were constrained by insufficient capital ratios, loan losses and intense regulation, while consumers and businesses had no appetite for acquiring more debt. The result was that the money multiplier - the ratio of broad money to the monetary base - collapsed (top panel in Chart II-1). Bank lending standards eventually eased and credit demand recovered. Broad money growth has been volatile since 2007 but, despite quantitative easing, it has been roughly in line with the decade before. The broad aggregates lost much of their predictive power after the 1980s. Financial innovation, such as the use of debit cards and bank machines, changed the relationship between broad money on one hand, and the economy or financial markets on the other. Despite the structural changes in the economy, investors should still keep the monetary aggregates and the other monetary indicators discussed below in their toolbox. While the year-to-year wiggles in M2, for example, have not been good predictors of growth or inflation on a one or two year horizon, Chart II-2 shows that there is a long-term relationship between money and inflation when using decade averages. Chart II-1The Monetary Aggregates Chart II-2Long-Run Relationship Between M2 And Inflation Other monetary indicators to watch: M2 Divided By Nominal GDP (Chart II-3): When money growth exceeds that of nominal GDP, it could be interpreted as a signal that there is more than enough liquidity to facilitate economic activity. The excess is then available to purchase financial assets. Monetary Conditions Index (Chart II-3): This combines the level of interest rates and the change in the exchange rate into one indicator. The MCI has increased over the past year, indicating a tightening of monetary conditions, but is still very low by historical standards. Dollar Based Liquidity (Chart II-3): This includes Fed holdings of Treasurys and U.S. government securities held in custody for foreign official accounts. Foreign Exchange Reserves (Chart II-3): Central banks hold reserves in the form of gold, or cash and bonds denominated in foreign currencies. For example, when the People's Bank of China accumulates foreign exchange as part of its management of the RMB, it buys government bonds in other countries, thereby adding to liquidity globally. Interest Rates Minus Nominal GDP Growth (Chart II-4): Nominal GDP growth can be thought of as a proxy for the return on capital. If interest rates are below the return on capital, then there is an incentive for firms to borrow and invest. The opposite is true if interest rates are above GDP growth. Currently, short-term rates are well below nominal GDP, signaling that central bank liquidity is plentiful. Chart II-3Monetary Indicators (I) Chart II-4Monetary Indicators (II) (2) Balance Sheet Liquidity Chart II-5 presents the ratio of short-term assets to total liabilities for the corporate and household sectors. It is a measure of readily-available cash or cash-like instruments that make it easier to weather economic downturns and/or credit tightening phases. The non-financial corporate sector is in very good shape from this perspective. The seizure of the commercial paper market during the GFC encouraged firms to hold more liquid assets on the balance sheet. However, the uptrend began in the early 1990s and likely reflects tax avoidance efforts. Households are also highly liquid when short-term assets are compared to income. Liquidity as a share of total discretionary financial portfolios is low, but this is not surprising given extraordinarily unattractive interest rates. The banking system is being forced to hold more liquid assets under the new Liquidity Coverage Ratio requirement (Chart II-6). This is positive from the perspective of reducing systemic risk, but it has negative implications for funding liquidity, as we will discuss below. Chart II-5Balance Sheet Liquidity Chart II-6Bank Balance Sheet Liquidity (3) Financial Market Transaction Liquidity: Transactions volumes and bid-ask spreads are the main indicators to watch to gauge financial market transaction liquidity. There was a concern shortly after the GFC that the pullback in risk-taking by important market-makers could severely undermine market liquidity, leading to lower transaction volumes and wider bid-ask spreads. The focus of concern was largely on the corporate bond market given the sharply reduced footprint of investment banks. The Fed's data on primary dealer positioning in corporates shows a massive decline from the pre-crisis peak in 2007 (Chart II-7). This represents a decline from over 10% of market cap to only 0.3%. The smaller presence of dealers could create a liquidity problem for corporate debt, especially if market-making dealers fail to adequately match sellers with buyers during market downturns. Yet, as highlighted by BCA's Global Fixed Income Strategy team, corporate bond markets have functioned well since the dark days of the Lehman crisis.2 Reduced dealer presence has not resulted in any unusual widening of typical relationships like the basis between Credit Default Swaps and corporate bond spreads. Other market participants, such as Exchange Traded Funds, have taken up the slack. Daily trading volume as a percent of market cap has returned to pre-Lehman levels in the U.S. high-yield market, although this is not quite the case for the investment-grade market (Chart II-8). Chart II-7Less Market Making Chart II-8Corporate Bond Trading Volume That said, it is somewhat worrying that average trade sizes in corporates are smaller now compared to pre-crisis levels - perhaps as much as 20% smaller according to estimates by the New York Fed. This is likely the result of the reduced risk-taking by the dealers and the growing share of direct electronic trading. Thus, it may feel like liquidity is impaired since it now takes longer to execute a large bond trade, even though transaction costs for individual trades have not been increasing. The bottom line is that financial market liquidity is not as good as in the pre-Lehman years. This is not a problem at the moment, but there could be some dislocations in the fixed-income space during the next period of severe market stress when funding liquidity dries up. (3) Funding Liquidity: There are few direct measures of funding liquidity. Instead, one can look for its "footprint" or confirming evidence, such as total private sector credit. If credit is growing strongly, it is a sign that funding liquidity is ample. Box II-3 explains why international credit flows are also important to watch for signs of froth in lending. BOX II-3 The Importance Of International Credit Flows The BIS highlights that swings in international borrowing amplify domestic credit trends. Cross border lending tends to display even larger boom-bust cycles than domestic credit, as can be seen in the major advanced economies in the lead up to the GFC, as well as some Asian countries just before the Asian crisis in the late 1990s (Chart II-9). When times are good, banks and the shadow banking system draw heavily on cross-border sources of funds, such that international credit expansion tends to grow faster during boom periods than the credit granted domestically by banks located in the country. Since G4 financial systems intermediate a major share of global credit, funding conditions within the G4 affect funding conditions globally, as BIS research shows.3 This research also demonstrates that financial cycles have become more highly correlated across economies due to increased financial integration. Booms in credit inflows from abroad are also associated with a low level of the VIX, which is another sign of ample funding liquidity conditions (Chart II-10). These periods of excessive funding almost always end with a financial crisis and a spike in the VIX. Chart II-9International Credit Is Highly Cyclical Chart II-10International Credit Booms Lead Spikes In The VIX Other measures of funding liquidity to watch include: Chart II-11Market Measures Of Funding Liquidity Libor-OIS Spread (Chart II-11): This is a measure of perceived credit risk of LIBOR-panel banks. The spread tends to widen during periods of banking sector stress. Spreads are currently low by historical standards. However, libor will be phased out by 2021, such that a replacement for this benchmark rate will have to be found by then. Bond-CDS Basis (Chart II-11): The basis is roughly the average difference between each bond's yield spread to Treasurys and the cost of insuring the bond in the CDS market. Arbitrage should keep these two spreads closely aligned, but increases in funding costs tied to balance sheet constraints during periods of market stress affect this arbitrage opportunity, allowing the two spreads to diverge. The U.S. high-yield or investment grade bond markets are a good bellweather, and at the moment they indicate relatively good funding liquidity. FX Basis Swap (Chart II-11): This is analogous to the bond-CDS basis. It reflects the cost of hedging currencies, which is critically important for international investors and lending institutions. The basis swap widens when there is financial stress, reflecting a pullback in funding liquidity related to currencies. The FX swap basis widened during the GFC and, unlike other spreads, has not returned to pre-Lehman levels (see below). Bank Leverage Ratios (Chart II-12): The ratio of loans to deposits is a measure of leverage in the banking system. Banks boost leverage during boom times and thereby provide more loans and funding liquidity to buy securities. In the U.S., this ratio has plunged since 2007 and shows no sign of turning up. Primary Dealers Securities Lending (Chart II-13): This is a direct measure of funding liquidity. Primary dealers make loans to other financial institutions with the purpose of buying securities, thereby providing both funding liquidity and market liquidity. Historically, shifts in dealer lending have been correlated with bid-ask spreads in the Treasury market. Securities lending is also correlated with the S&P 500, although it does not tend to lead the stock market. Dealer loans soared prior to 2007, before collapsing in 2008. Total loans have recovered, but have not reached pre-crisis highs, consistent with stricter regulations that forced the deleveraging of dealer balance sheets. Chart II-12U.S. Bank Leverage Chart II-13Securities Lending And Margin Debt NYSE Margin Debt (Chart II-13): Another direct measure of funding liquidity. The uptrend in recent years has been steep, although it is less impressive when expressed relative to market cap. Bank Lending Standards (Chart II-14): These surveys reflect bank lending standards for standard loans to the household or corporate sectors, but their appetite for lending for the purposes of securities purchases is no doubt highly correlated. Lending standards tightened in 2016 due to the collapse in oil prices, but they have started to ease again this year. Table II-1 provides a handy list of liquidity indicators split into our four categories. Taking all of these indicators into consideration, we would characterize liquidity conditions in the U.S. as fairly accommodative, although not nearly as abundant as the period just prior to the Lehman event. Monetary conditions are super easy, while balance sheet and financial market liquidity are reasonably constructive. In contrast, funding liquidity, while vastly improved since the GFC, is still a long way from the pre-Lehman go-go years according to several important indicators such as bank leverage. Moreover, the Fed is set to begin the process of unwinding the massive amount of monetary liquidity provided by its quantitative easing program. Chart II-14Bank Lending Standards Table II-1Liquidity Indicators To Watch Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage: What Impact On Liquidity? Given that the era of quantitative easing has been a positive one for risk assets, it is unsurprising that investors are concerned about the looming unwind of the Fed's massive balance sheet. For example, Chart II-15 demonstrates the correlation between the change in G4 balances sheets and both the stock market and excess returns in the U.S. high-yield market. Chart II-16 presents our forecast for how quickly the Fed's balance sheet will contract. Following last week's FOMC meeting we learned that balance sheet reduction will begin October 1. For the first three months the Fed will allow a maximum of $6 billion in Treasurys and $4 billion in MBS to run off each month. Those caps will increase in steps of $6 billion and $4 billion, respectively, every three months until they level off at $30 billion per month for Treasurys and $20 billion per month for MBS. Chart II-15G4 Central Bank Balance Sheets Chart II-16Fed Balance Sheet We have received no official guidance on the level of bank reserves the Fed will target for the end of the run-off process. However, New York Fed President William Dudley recently recommended that this level should be higher than during the pre-QE period, and should probably fall in the $400 billion to $1 trillion range.4 In our forecasts we assume that bank reserves will level-off once they reach $650 billion. In that scenario the Fed's balance sheet will shrink by roughly $1.4 trillion by 2021. The level of excess reserves in the banking system will decline by a somewhat larger amount ($1.75 trillion). In terms of the impact of balance sheet shrinkage on overall liquidity conditions, it is useful to think about the four categories of liquidity described above. (1) Monetary Liquidity The re-absorption of excess reserves will mean that base money will contract (i.e. the sum of bank reserves held at the Fed and currency in circulation). However, we do not expect this to have a noticeable impact on the broader monetary aggregates, credit growth, the economy or inflation, outside of any effect it might have on the term premium in the bond market. The reasoning is that all those excess reserves did not have a major impact on growth and inflation when they were created in the first place. This was because the credit channel of monetary policy was blocked by a lack of demand (private sector deleveraging) and limited bank lending capacity (partly due to regulation). Banks were also less inclined to lend due to rising loan losses. Removing the excess reserves should have little effect on banks' willingness or ability to make new loans. In terms of asset prices, some investors believe that when the excess reserves were created, a portion of it found its way out of the banking system and was used to buy assets directly. That is not the case. The excess reserves were left idle, sitting on deposit at the Fed. They did not "leak" out and were not used to purchase assets. Thus, fewer excess bank reserves do not imply any forced selling. Nonetheless, the QE program certainly affected asset prices indirectly via the portfolio balance effect. Asset purchases supported both the economy and risk assets in part via a weaker dollar and to the extent that the policy lifted confidence in the system. But most importantly, QE depressed long-term interest rates, which are used to discount cash flows when valuing financial assets. QE boosted risk-seeking behavior and the search for yield, partly through the signaling mechanism that convinced investors that short-term rates would stay depressed for a long time. The result was a decline in measures of market implied volatility, such as the MOVE and VIX indexes. Could Bond Yields Spike? The risk is that the portfolio balance effect goes into reverse as the Fed unwinds the asset purchases. The negative impact on risk assets will depend importantly on the bond market's response. As highlighted in the Overview section, there will be a sharp swing in the flow of G4 government bonds available to the private sector, from a contraction of US$800 billion in 2017 to an increase of US$600 billion in 2018. Focusing on the U.S. market, empirical estimates suggest that the Fed's shedding of Treasurys could boost the 10-year yield by about 80 basis points because the private sector will require a higher term premium to absorb the higher flow of bonds. However, the impact on yields is likely to be tempered by two factors: Banks are required by regulators to hold more high-quality assets than they did in the pre-Lehman years in order to meet the new Liquidity Coverage Ratio. The BCA U.S. Bond Strategy service argues that growing bank demand for Treasurys in the coming years will absorb much of the net flow of Treasurys that the Fed is no longer buying.5 As the FOMC dials back monetary stimulus it will be concerned with overall monetary conditions, including short-term rates, long-term rates and the dollar. If long-term rates and/or the dollar rise too quickly, policymakers will moderate the pace of rate hikes and use forward guidance to talk down the long end of the curve so as to avoid allowing financial conditions to tighten too quickly. Thus, the path of short-term rates is dependent on the dollar and the reaction of the long end of the curve. It is difficult to estimate how it will shake out, but the point is that forward guidance will help to limit the impact of the shrinking Fed balance sheet on bond yields. Indeed, the Fed is trying hard to sever the link in investors' minds between balance sheet policy and signaling about future rate hikes, as highlighted by Chair Yellen's Q&A session following the September FOMC meeting. The bottom line is that the impact on monetary liquidity of a smaller Fed balance sheet should be minimal, although long-term bond yields will be marginally higher as a result. That said, much depends on inflation. If the core PCE inflation rate were to suddenly shift up to the 2% target or above, then bond prices will be hit hard, the VIX will surge and risk assets will sustain some damage. The prospect of a more aggressive pace of monetary tightening would undermine funding liquidity, compounding the negative impact on risk assets. (2) Funding Liquidity Chart II-17Tri-Party Repo Market Has Shrunk By unwinding its balance sheet, the Fed will be supplying securities into the market and removing cash. This will be occurring at a time when transactions in the tri-party repo market have fallen to less than half of their peak in 2007 due to stricter regulation (Chart II-17). This market has historically been an important source of short-term funding, helping to meet the secular rise in demand for short-term, low-risk instruments, largely from non-financial corporations, asset managers and foreign exchange reserve funds. If the Fed drains reserves from the system and T-bill issuance does not increase substantially to compensate, a supply shortage of short-maturity instruments could develop. We can see how this might undermine the Fed's ability to shift short-term interest rates higher under its new system of interest rate management, where reverse repos and the interest rate paid on reserves set the floor for other short-term interest rates. However, at the moment we do not see the risk that fewer excess reserves on its own will negatively affect funding liquidity. Again, any impact on funding liquidity would likely be felt via a sharp rise in interest rates and pullback in the portfolio balance effect, which would occur if inflation turns up. But this has more to do with rising interest rates than the size of the Fed's balance sheet. Indeed, balance sheet shrinkage could actually improve funding liquidity provided via the bilateral repo market, securities-lending, derivatives and prime brokerage channels. These are important players in the collateral supply chain. A recent IMF working paper emphasizes that collateral flows are just as important in credit creation as money itself.6 Collateral refers to financial instruments that are used as collateral to fund positions, which can be cash or cash-like equivalents. Since pledged collateral can be reused over and over, it can generate significantly more total lending than the value of the collateral itself. The Fed's overnight reverse-repo facility includes restrictions that the collateral accessed from its balance sheet can only be used in the tri-party repo system. Thus, the Fed's presence in the collateral market has reduced the "velocity of collateral." Table II-2 shows that the reuse rate of collateral, or its velocity, has fallen from 3.0 in 2007 to 1.8 in 2015. Table II-2Collateral Velocity The combination of tighter capital regulations and Fed asset purchases has severely limited the available space on bank balance sheets to provide funding liquidity. Regulations force banks to carry more capital for a given level of assets. Fed asset purchases have forced a large portion of those assets to be held as reserves, limiting banks' activity in the bilateral repo market. There is much uncertainty surrounding this issue, but it appears that an unwind the Fed's balance sheet will free up some space on bank balance sheets, possibly permitting more bilateral repo activity and thus a higher rate of collateral velocity. It may also relieve concerns about a shortage of safe-haven assets. Nonetheless, we probably will not see a return of collateral velocity to 2007 levels because stricter capital regulations will still be in place. What About Currency Swaps? Some have argued that this removal of cash could also lead to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. In particular, Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse has observed a correlation between U.S. bank reserves and FX basis swap spreads.7 There is also a strong correlation between FX swap spreads and the U.S. dollar (Chart II-18). Chart II-18FX Basis Swap And Reserves One possible chain of events is that, as the Fed drains cash from the market, there will be less liquidity in the FX swap market. Basis swap spreads will widen as a result, and this will cause the dollar to appreciate. In this framework, the unwinding of the Fed's balance sheet will put upward pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, it is also possible that the chain of causation runs in the other direction. The BIS has proposed a model8 where a stronger dollar weakens the capital positions of bank balance sheets. This causes them to back away from providing liquidity to the FX swap market, leading to wider basis swap spreads. In this model, a strong dollar leads to wider basis swap spreads and not the reverse. If this is the correct direction of causation, then we should not expect any impact on the dollar from the unwinding of the Fed's balance sheet. At the moment it is impossible to tell which of the above two theories is correct. All we can do is monitor the correlation between reserves, FX basis swap spreads and the dollar going forward. Conclusions: Overall liquidity conditions are reasonably constructive for risk assets at the moment. Financial market and balance sheet liquidity are adequate. Monetary policy is extremely easy, although the low level of money and credit growth underscores that the credit channel of monetary policy is still somewhat impaired and/or constrained relative to the pre-Lehman years. Funding liquidity has recovered from the Great Financial Crisis lows, but it is far from frothy. More intense regulation means that funding liquidity will probably never again be as favorable for risk assets as it was before the crisis. But, hopefully, efforts by the authorities to reduce perceived systemic risk mean that funding liquidity may not be as quick to dry up as was the case in 2008, in the event of another negative shock. Unwinding the Fed's balance sheet represents a risk to investors because QE played such an important role in reducing risk premia in financial markets. However, we believe that the bond market's reaction will be far more important than balance sheet shrinkage. As long as the Fed can limit the bond market damage via forward guidance, then risk assets should take the Fed's unwind in stride. It will be a whole different story, however, if inflation lurches higher. The technical impact of balance sheet unwind on the inner workings of the credit market is very complicated and difficult to forecast. Asset sales could lead to a shortage of short-term high-quality assets. However, this is more a problem in terms of the Fed's ability to raise interest rates than for funding liquidity. A smaller balance sheet could, in fact, improve funding liquidity to the extent that it frees up space on banks' balance sheets. Mark McClellan Senior Vice President The Bank Credit Analyst Ryan Swift Vice President U.S. Bond Strategy 1 D. Domanski, I. Fender and P. McGuire, "Assessing Global Liquidity," BIS Quarterly Review (December 2011). 2 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "Global Interest Rate Strategy For The Remainder Of 2017," dated July 18, 2017, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com 3 E. Cerutti, S. Claessens and L. Ratnovski, "A Primer on 'Global Liquidity'," CEPR Policy Portal (June 8, 2014). 4 William C. Dudley, "The U.S. Economic Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of New York (September 07, 2017). 5 Please see BCA U.S. Bond Strategy Weekly Report, "The Great Unwind," dated September 19, 2017, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 6 M. Singh, "Collateral Reuse and Balance Sheet Space," IMF Working Paper (May 2017). 7 Alexandra Scaggs, "Where would you prefer your balance sheet: Banks, or the Federal Reserve?" Financial Times Alphaville (April 13, 2017). 8 S. Avdjiev, W. Du, C. Koch, and Hyun S.Shin, "The dollar, bank leverage and the deviation from covered interest parity," BIS Working Papers No.592 (Revised July 2017). III. Indicators And Reference Charts Equity indexes in the U.S. and Japan broke out to new highs in September. European stocks surged as well. Investors embraced risk assets in the month on a solid earnings backdrop, strong economic indicators, continuing low inflation and revived hopes for fiscal stimulus in the U.S. and Japan, among other factors. Our indicators do not warn of any near-term stumbling blocks for the bull market. Our monetary indicator continues to hover only slightly on the restrictive side. Our equity composite technical indicator may be rolling over, but it must fall below zero to send a 'sell' signal. The speculation index is elevated, but bullish equity sentiment is only a little above the long-term mean. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 tends to increase whenever the 12-month forward EPS estimate is rising. The latter is in a solid uptrend that should continue based on the net revisions ratio and the earnings surprise index. Valuation remains poor, but has not yet reached our threshold of overvaluation. Our new Revealed Preference Indicator (RPI) continued on its bullish equity signal in August for the second consecutive month. We introduced the RPI in the July report. It combines the idea of market momentum with valuation and policy measures. It provides a powerful bullish signal if positive market momentum lines up with constructive signals from the policy and valuation measures. Conversely, if constructive market momentum is not supported by valuation and policy, investors should lean against the market trend. Our Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) indicators are also bullish on stocks for the U.S., Europe and Japan. These indicators track flows, and thus provide information on what investors are actually doing, as opposed to sentiment indexes that track how investors are feeling. The U.S. and Japanese WTPs are trending sideways, and Europe could be rolling over. While this is a little worrying because they indicate that flows into equity markets have moderated recently, the indicators have to clearly turn down to provide a bearish signal for stocks. Flows into the U.S. appear to be more advanced relative to Japan and the Eurozone, suggesting that there is more "dry powder" available to buy the latter two markets than for the U.S. market. Oversold conditions for the U.S. dollar are being worked off, but our technical indicator is still positive for the currency. The greenback looks expensive based on PPP, but is less so on other measures. We are positive in the near term. Our composite technical indicator for U.S. Treasurys is at neutral. Bond valuation is also at neutral based on our long-standing model. However, other models that specifically incorporate global economic factors suggest that the 10-year Treasury is still more than 30 basis points on the expensive side. Stay below benchmark in duration. EQUITIES: Chart III-1U.S. Equity Indicators Chart III-2Willingness To Pay For Risk Chart III-3U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicators Chart III-4Revealed Preference Indicator Chart III-5U.S. Stock Market Valuation Chart III-6U.S. Earnings Chart III-7Global Stock Market And Earnings: ##br##Relative Performance Chart III-8Global Stock Market And Earnings: ##br##Relative Performance FIXED INCOME: Chart III-9U.S. Treasurys And Valuations Chart III-10U.S. Treasury Indicators Chart III-11Selected U.S. Bond Yields Chart III-1210-Year Treasury Yield ComponentsChart III-13U.S. Corporate Bonds And Health Monitor Chart III-14Global Bonds: Developed Markets Chart III-15Global Bonds: Emerging Markets CURRENCIES: Chart III-16U.S. Dollar And PPP Chart III-17U.S. Dollar And Indicator Chart III-18U.S. Dollar Fundamentals Chart III-19Japanese Yen Technicals Chart III-20Euro Technicals Chart III-21Euro/Yen Technicals Chart III-22Euro/Pound Technicals COMMODITIES: Chart III-23Broad Commodity Indicators Chart III-24Commodity Prices Chart III-25Commodity Prices Chart III-26Commodity Sentiment Chart III-27Speculative Positioning ECONOMY: Chart III-28U.S. And Global Macro Backdrop Chart III-29U.S. Macro Snapshot Chart III-30U.S. Growth Outlook Chart III-31U.S. Cyclical Spending Chart III-32U.S. Labor Market Chart III-33U.S. Consumption Chart III-34U.S. Housing Chart III-35U.S. Debt And Deleveraging Chart III-36U.S. Financial Conditions Chart III-37Global Economic Snapshot: Europe Chart III-38Global Economic Snapshot: China Mark McClellan Senior Vice President The Bank Credit Analyst

Highlights French labor reforms stack up well against German and Spanish predecessors; We remain bullish on French industrials versus German industrials; Populism is overrated in Germany - European integration may not accelerate, but it will continue; The U.K.'s position remains weak in Brexit talks ... don't expect much from sterling. Feature On recent travels across Asia Pacific, the U.K., and the U.S., Europe has rarely featured in our conversations with clients. We proclaimed European politics a "trophy red herring" in our annual Strategic Outlook.1 Following the defeat of populists in Austria, the Netherlands, Spain, and particularly France, the market now agrees with us (Chart 1). Chart 1European Political Risk Was Overstated In this report, we ask whether there is anything left to say about Europe. First, we provide an update on French structural reforms, which we predicted with enthusiasm in February.2 Second, we give a post-mortem of the German election. Third, we dissect U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's speech in Florence. We remain positive on near-term and mid-term prospects for European assets. We have recently closed our unhedged long Euro Area equities trade for a 7.88% gain (open from January 25 to September 6). We have reopened the position on September 6 with a currency hedge given our view that there is some downside risk for the euro in the near term. We also remain long French industrials / short German industrials, with gains of 9.30% since February 3. The French Revolution Continues President Emmanuel Macron has ignored tepid union protests and signed five decrees overhauling French labor rules on September 22. While there is more to be done, Macron's swift action just five months after assuming office justifies our optimism about France earlier this year. As we posited in February, investors are surprised every decade by a developed market that defies all stereotypes and catches the markets off guard with ambitious, pro-market and pro-business structural reforms. Margaret Thatcher's laissez-faire reforms pulled Britain out of the ghastly 1970s. Sweden surprised the world in the 1990s. At the turn of the century, Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) defied its own "socialist" label and moved the country to the right of the economic spectrum. Finally, the past decade's reform surprise came from Spain, which undertook painful labor and pension reforms that have underpinned its impressive recovery. How do French labor reforms stack up against the German and Spanish efforts? Table 1 surveys the measures and classifies them into three categories. On unemployment benefits, Macron's effort falls short of the considerable cuts implemented as part of the Hartz reforms in Germany. However, while benefits will still be generous, France's unemployed will now be cut off if they refuse job offers that pay within 25% of the salary they previously held. On increasing labor market flexibility, we give France high marks. Reforms will simplify the termination process for economic reasons and cap damages that can be awarded to employees, in line with the Spanish experience. Macron has also managed to neuter the power of national unions by allowing firm-level collective bargaining to take precedence. France's labor bargaining reform is also a carbon copy of the Spanish effort and both are attempts to create a more German-like management-employee context. Table 1Measuring French Reforms Against German And Spanish Reforms What should investors expect as a result? Spain is instructive. While its unemployment rate remains 5.8% above the Italian rate and 7.3% above the French rate, it still fell from a high of 26.3% in 2013 to 17.1% today. Meanwhile, Italian and French unemployment rates remain stubbornly high (Chart 2). In addition, Spain's export competitiveness has had one of the sharpest recoveries in Europe since 2008, whereas Italy and France continue to languish (Chart 3). Spain accomplished this feat via a considerable reduction in labor costs relative to peers (Chart 4). Chart 2Italy, France: Unemployment Still High Chart 3Spain Regained Competitiveness Chart 4Spain Cut Labor Costs The key pillar of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's reforms was to create a more flexible labor market so as to restore competitiveness to the economy by aligning labor costs with productivity. Reforms, passed in February 2012, removed stringent collective bargaining agreements and replaced them with firm-level agreements. This has made it easier for firms to negotiate their own labor conditions, including reducing wages as an alternative to termination of employment. France is now on the path to do the same. True, it is difficult to establish a clear causal connection between Rajoy's structural reforms and Spain's economic performance since 2008. Nevertheless, reforms also work as a signaling mechanism, encouraging investment and unleashing animal spirits by affirming the government's commitment to a pro-business agenda. Under Rajoy's leadership, Spain has moved from 62nd in the World Bank "Ease of Doing Business" survey in 2009 to 32nd in 2017, 18 spots above Italy. Given the speed and commitment of the Macron administration, we would expect an even stronger signaling effect in France. German Hartz reforms are easier to assess because more time has passed since 2005 (when the final stage, Hartz IV, was implemented). Prior to the reforms, Germany's GDP growth rate was falling and unemployment was rising (Chart 5). At least on these two broad measures, it appears that reforms were positive. Chart 5Hartz Reforms Marked Turning Point In Germany Chart 6German Long-Term Unemployment Benefits Were Cut Down To OECD Average Germany's problem prior to the Hartz reforms was that generous unemployment benefits discouraged unemployed workers from finding employment. Long-term benefits could be as high as 53% of the terminated salary and eligible for indefinite renewal! The Hartz IV reforms specifically targeted these benefits, with the intention of forcing the unemployed to get back to work. Germany brought these benefits into line with the OECD average (Chart 6). The long-term impact of the Hartz reforms was a dramatic decline in the unemployment rate from a bottom of 9.2% in 2001 to the still falling 3.7% of today! Reforms have also seen a steady increase in wage growth, despite the conventional view saying the opposite. Wages have been steadily rising since implementation in 2005, only slowing down during the global financial crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis (Chart 7). This does not mean that labor reforms failed. The intention of the Hartz reforms was to push people back into the labor force, not necessarily suppress their wages. Chart 8 shows the effect on the hours worked in the economy, with a clear uptrend after the reform was enacted. Chart 7German Wages Recovered... Chart 8...While Working Hours Increased In line with the previous labor reform efforts in Europe, we think that investors should expect three broad developments from French labor reforms: Competitiveness: As Chart 3 suggests, Spain and Germany have had the best export performance in Europe. By allowing companies some flexibility in setting costs, these economies were able to regain export competitiveness. As a play on this theme, we are long French industrials relative to German peers. Unemployment: Forcing the unemployed back to the labor market by ending their unemployment benefits if they refuse a job offer within 25% of the previous income level should encourage workers to get back to the labor force. Confidence: Macron's labor reforms are only the beginning of a packed agenda that also includes reducing the size of the public sector, reducing the wealth tax on productive assets, and cutting corporate taxes significantly. What of the opposition to the reform effort? What if the French leadership backs down in the face of protest? First, we must ask, what protest? The labor union response has been underwhelming. In part, this is because Macron's reforms are packed with pro-union clauses. The intention is to empower union activity at the firm level in order to neuter its activity at the national level. Second, Macron's electoral victory was overwhelming, both the presidential and legislative. Yes, turnout was low. And yes, many voted for Macron just so that Marine Le Pen would not become president. But the fact remains that 85% of the seats in the National Assembly are held by pro-reform parties, including the pro-business, right-wing Les Républicains, who want even stricter reforms. Bottom Line: Our clients, colleagues, friends, and family all tell us that France will not reform. But we have seen this film before, with Germany in the 2000s and Spain in the 2010s. One day, investors will wake up and France will be more competitive. Fin. A German Election Post-Mortem The media narrative before and after the German election tells of the rise of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a far-right party that campaigned on an anti-EU and anti-immigration platform. Indeed, the performance of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and center-left Social-Democratic Party (SPD), which have dominated German politics since the Second World War, was historically poor (Chart 9). Chart 9Germany's Dominant Parties Underperformed... Despite the media hysterics, there were no surprises this year. The AfD performed in line with its polls, only outperforming their long-term polling average by around 2%. Meanwhile, the historic underperformance of the CDU and SPD was also due to the solid performance of the other two establishment parties, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the center-left Greens (Chart 10). The FDP stormed back into the Bundestag by more than doubling their performance from 2013, while the Greens maintained their roughly 9% performance. Die Linke, a left-wing party whose Euroskeptic tendencies have dissipated, also gained around 9% of the vote. From a historical perspective, the combined CDU and SPD performance was bad, but roughly in line with their 2009 election result. Chart 10... While Minor Parties Outperformed That said, there was no once-in-a-lifetime global recession this time around to excuse the poor performance of the two establishment parties. German GDP growth is set to be 2.1% in 2017 and the unemployment rate is at a historic 3.7%. Meanwhile, support for the euro is at 81% (Chart 11), which begs the question of why 12.6% voters decided to entrust AfD with their votes. Chart 11Germans Love The Euro The simple answer is immigration and the 2015 asylum crisis. The more complex answer is that AfD's performance was particularly strong in East Germany, where the party is now the second largest after the CDU. The same forces that fueled the Brexit referendum and the election of President Donald Trump are at work in Germany. Voters who feel left behind by the transition to a globalized, service-oriented economy have rebelled against a system that favors the educated and mobile voters. In Germany, the angst is particularly notable in the East, where economic progress has lagged that of the rest of the country. On the other hand, it is ludicrous to compare AfD to Brexit and Trump. After all, AfD received only 12% of the vote. This is in line with, or slightly trails, the performance of other right-wing parties in Europe (Chart 12). Yes, it is disturbing to see a far-right party back in the Bundestag, but it was also naïve to believe that Germany could remain a European outlier forever. In fact, like other right-wing parties in Europe, the party is beset with internal rivalries. Party chairwoman Frauke Petry, who represents the moderate wing of the party, decided to quit one day after the election.3 We would suspect that the party will struggle going forward, particularly now that the influx of asylum seekers has trickled down to insignificance (Chart 13). Chart 12German Far Right Performed In Line With Other European Anti-Establishment Parties Chart 13Refugee Crisis Is Over In Germany And Europe Going forward, Chancellor Angela Merkel will retain her hold on power. However, she will likely have to do so via a "Jamaica coalition" with the FDP and the Greens.4 Forming such a challenging coalition could take until the New Year. Particularly problematic are the positions of the FDP and the Greens on Europe. The former are mildly Euroskeptic, the latter are rabidly Europhile. Merkel's 2009-13 coalition with the FDP was similarly challenging. The FDP moved towards soft Euroskepticism after the Great Financial Crisis. It combined with CDU's Bavarian sister party - the Christian Social Union (CSU)5 - to vote against a number of European rescue efforts and institutional changes (Chart 14). Merkel had to rely on the opposition SPD, which is staunchly Europhile, to push several European reforms through the Bundestag. More broadly, both the FDP and the CSU were a brake on Merkel during this period, leading to Berlin's halting response to the Euro Area crisis. Chart 14The FDP Hampered German Rescue Efforts Amid Euro Crisis Going forward, a Jamaica coalition is investment-relevant for three reasons: First, it would likely pour cold water on recent enthusiasm about accelerated European integration spurred by the election of President Emmanuel Macron in France. But investors should not read too much into it. As Chart 11 clearly illustrates, Germans are not Euroskeptic. The Euro Area works for Germany. If there is a future crisis, Germany will react to it in an integrationist fashion, shoving aside any coalition agreements to the contrary. And if Merkel has to rely on opposition SPD votes to push through the evolving European agenda, she will do so, regardless of what is said between now and December. Second, Merkel will have to respond to the poor performance of her party. She has to give in to the right wing on illegal immigration. Investors should expect to see tighter border enforcement on Europe's external borders. More relevant to the markets, we expect mildly Euroskeptics critics in her own party, as well as in the FDP and CSU, to be satisfied by officially pushing for Jens Weidmann's presidency at the ECB. Weidmann has recently toned down his criticism of ECB policies - publically defending low interest rates - which is likely a strategy to make himself palatable as the next president. Third, it is widely being discussed that the FDP will demand the finance ministry from Merkel, replacing Wolfgang Schäuble. This would definitely complicate any future efforts to deal with Euro Area sovereign debt crises, were they to emerge. However, the FDP is making a mistake. If they take the finance portfolio, they will be signing off on bailouts in the future. That is a guarantee. Europe is full of moderately Euroskepic finance ministers who have done the same (see: Austria, Finland, and the Netherlands in particular). Finally, the election was a clear failure by Merkel to defend her brand. While she has not signaled a willingness to resign, it is highly likely that she will try to groom her successor over the next four years. The 63 year-old has been in power since 2005. At the moment, the list of potential names for CDU leadership is long, but devoid of star power (Box 1). The one quality of all the potential candidates, however, is that they are pro-Europe. Bottom Line: In the short term, markets have read German elections overly negatively. The euro reacted on the news as if the currency bloc breakup risk premium had risen. It hasn't. In fact, the election could prove to be a long-term bullish euro outcome, given that Merkel will likely have to acquiesce to Jens Weidmann's candidacy for the ECB presidency. The German Bundestag remains overwhelmingly pro-Europe. The now-in-opposition SPD is pro-integration, as are the likely new coalition members, the Greens. Die Linke has evolved from anti-capitalist, soft Euroskeptics to left-of-SPD Europhiles. While FDP remains committed to a mildly Euroskeptic line (pro-Europe, but opposed to further integration), its members will likely have to sacrifice this position in order to be in government in the long term. They won't say that they are doing that, but trust us, they are. The performance of Germany's populist right wing is largely in line with that of other European countries. As such, it signals that Germany is a "normal country," not that there is something particularly disturbing going on. Box 1 Likely Successors To German Chancellor Angela Merkel If Merkel decides to retire, who are her potential successors? Ursula von der Leyen (CDU): Leyen, who has served most recently as defense minister, is often cited as a likely replacement for Merkel. However, she is not seen favorably by most of the population: she has not won first place in her district in any of the past three general elections. She is a strong advocate of further European integration and has supported the creation of a "United States of Europe." Leyen has argued that the European refugee crisis and debt crisis are similar in that they will ultimately force Europe to integrate further. As a defense minister, she has promoted the creation of a robust EU army. She has also been a hardliner on Brexit, saying that the U.K. will not re-enter the EU in her lifetime. The markets and pro-EU elites in Europe would love Leyen, who handled U.S. President Trump's statements on Germany, Europe, Russia and NATO with notable tact. Thomas De Maizière (CDU): Maizière, who has served as minister of interior and minister of defense, is a close confidant of Chancellor Merkel. He was her chief of staff from 2005 to 2009. Like Schäuble, he is somewhat of a hawk on euro area issues (he drove a hard bargain during negotiations to set up a fiscal backstop, the European Financial Stability Fund, in 2010) and as such could become a compromise candidate between the Europhiles and Eurohawks within CDU ranks. Though he has been implicated in scandals as defense minister, he has remained popular by drawing a relatively hard line on immigration policy and internal security. Julia Klöckner (CDU): A CDU deputy chairwoman from Rhineland-Palatinate, Klöckner is a socially conservative protégé of Merkel and a hence a likely candidate to replace her. While remaining loyal to Merkel, she has taken a more right-wing stance on the immigration crisis. She is a staunch Europhile who has portrayed the Euroskeptic AfD as "dangerous, sometimes racist," though she has insisted that AfD voters are not all "Nazis" but are mostly in the middle of the political spectrum and need to be won back by the CDU. We think that she would be a very pro-market choice as she combines a popular, market-irrelevant wariness about immigration with a market-relevant centrism that favors further European integration. Hermann Gröhe (CDU): Gröhe last served as minister of health and is a former CDU secretary general. He is very close to Merkel. He is a staunch supporter of the euro and European integration. Markets would have no problem with Gröhe, although they may take some time to get to know who he is! Volker Bouffier (CDU): As Minister President of Hesse, home of Germany's financial center Frankfurt, Bouffier is in a position to capitalize on Brexit. He is a heavyweight within the CDU's leadership and a staunch Europhile. He has already declared he will run for the top state office again in 2018, though he will be 67 years old by then. The U.K.: Fall In Florence Prime Minister Theresa May tried to reset Brexit negotiations with the EU recently by giving a speech in Florence. We were told by clients and colleagues that it would be an important event, so we tuned in and listened. The speech was largely a dud. It confirmed to us the constraints on London's negotiating position as well as the challenges that Brexit poses to the British economy. May's team is struggling to navigate both. There are three things that investors should take from the speech - most which we have been emphasizing for over a year: The EU exit bill: The U.K. will pay. The one concrete point that Prime Minister May agreed with, for the first time ever, is that London will continue to pay into the current EU seven-year budget period (2014-2020). This should never have been in doubt. Britain's refusing to pay would be the equivalent of a tenant giving notice that he is ending his lease in 24 months, then refusing to pay in the interim. What May did not say is whether the U.K. would pay anything beyond its share of contribution to the EU budget. At the moment, the answer appears to be no, but we don't expect that to be the final word. Services really (really) matter: The U.K. has a competitive advantage in services. This is why May has tried to signal that she wants the broadest trade deal possible, since regular free trade agreements (FTAs) do not provide for deep integration in services. What will the U.K. give in return? May appears to want a Norway-type EU trade agreement with Canada-type liabilities. This won't fly in Brussels. The transition deal will last two years at minimum: This was never in doubt. But due to domestic political pressures, May was afraid of voicing it in public until today. Below we provide excerpts of the most relevant (or irrelevant, but comical) parts of May's speech.6 Our running commentary is in brackets. Theresa May's Florence Speech On Brexit, September 2017: A Reinterpretation By GPS It's good to be here in this great city of Florence today at a critical time in the evolution of the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. It was here, more than anywhere else, that the Renaissance began - a period of history that inspired centuries of creativity and critical thought across our continent and which in many ways defined what it meant to be European. [GPS: Strong opening by May. Odd location for the speech, however. Unless she was looking to ingratiate herself with Matteo Renzi, former mayor of Florence, former prime minister of Italy, and current leader of the ruling Democratic Party]. * * * The British people have decided to leave the EU; and to be a global, free-trading nation, able to chart our own way in the world. For many, this is an exciting time, full of promise; for others it is a worrying one. I look ahead with optimism, believing that if we use this moment to change not just our relationship with Europe, but also the way we do things at home, this will be a defining moment in the history of our nation. [GPS: This is a crucial argument by proponents of Brexit, that leaving the EU is not just about leaving the bloc's oversight, but also about domestic renewal. At the heart of this view is the belief that the EU has shackled the U.K.'s potential economic output with its regulatory oversight and protectionist trade policies. For this to be true, the U.K. has to replace significance labor force growth - from the EU Labor Market - with even greater productivity growth. If the U.K. fails to do this, its potential GDP growth rate will be substantively lower in the future. We do not buy the optimism. For one, the EU has not been a drag on the U.K.'s World Bank Ease Of Doing Businness rankings, where the country ranks seventh. Second, several other EU member states are in the top 20, including Sweden, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Germany, Ireland and Austria. Third, developed economies have been dealing with sub-standard productivity growth for over a decade, both EU members and non-members. As such, we are pretty certain that the U.K.'s potential GDP growth rate will be lower over the next decade, not higher.] And it is an exciting time for many in Europe too. The European Union is beginning a new chapter in the story of its development. Just last week, President Juncker set out his ambitions for the future of the European Union. [GPS: A nod to the reality that without the U.K. stalling its integration, Europe is now better able to build its "ever closer union." May is essentially conceding here to Charles de Gaulle's argument, articulated in the 1960s, that letting Britain into the club would ultimately be a mistake.]7 There is a vibrant debate going on about the shape of the EU's institutions and the direction of the Union in the years ahead. We don't want to stand in the way of that. [GPS: Reality check: it has literally been the foreign policy of the U.K. to "stand in the way of" of a united Europe for at least six hundred years ...] * * * Our decision to leave the European Union is in no way a repudiation of this longstanding commitment. We may be leaving the European Union, but we are not leaving Europe. Our resolve to draw on the full weight of our military, intelligence, diplomatic and development resources to lead international action, with our partners, on the issues that affect the security and prosperity of our peoples is unchanged. Our commitment to the defence - and indeed the advance - of our shared values is undimmed. Our determination to defend the stability, security and prosperity of our European neighbours and friends remains steadfast. [GPS: As we have argued repeatedly, the U.K. and EU share crucial geopolitical and economic links. As such, it is difficult to see negotiations devolving into the sort of acrimony that many have expected. May understands this and is reminding Europe of how important the U.K. role is, and will continue to be, geopolitically for Europe.] * * * The strength of feeling that the British people have about this need for control and the direct accountability of their politicians is one reason why, throughout its membership, the United Kingdom has never totally felt at home being in the European Union. [GPS: A not-so-slight dig at Europe. Basically, May is saying that U.K. voters live in a democracy. EU voters live in something else.] And perhaps because of our history and geography, the European Union never felt to us like an integral part of our national story in the way it does to so many elsewhere in Europe. [GPS: This is true and can be empirically measured (Chart 15).] Chart 15Brits Have A Strong Sense Of National Identity * * * For while the UK's departure from the EU is inevitably a difficult process, it is in all of our interests for our negotiations to succeed. If we were to fail, or be divided, the only beneficiaries would be those who reject our values and oppose our interests. [GPS: This is all true and very well put. But it also appears to be a line of argument designed to tug at Europe's emotional strings. Like a husband asking his wife to take it easy on him in a divorce "for the sake of the children."] So I believe we share a profound sense of responsibility to make this change work smoothly and sensibly, not just for people today but for the next generation who will inherit the world we leave them. [GPS: Literally the line about the kids followed immediately!] * * * But I know there are concerns that over time the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens overseas will diverge. I want to incorporate our agreement fully into UK law and make sure the UK courts can refer directly to it. Where there is uncertainty around underlying EU law, I want the UK courts to be able to take into account the judgments of the European Court of Justice with a view to ensuring consistent interpretation. On this basis, I hope our teams can reach firm agreement quickly. [GPS: An important concession - the first in the speech so far, and we are more than halfway through: London will apparently take into account ECJ rulings when dealing with EU citizens living in the U.K. That is a huge concession to Europe and an arrangement unlike anywhere else in the world.] * * * The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. We will no longer be members of its single market or its customs union. For we understand that the single market's four freedoms are indivisible for our European friends. We recognise that the single market is built on a balance of rights and obligations. And we do not pretend that you can have all the benefits of membership of the single market without its obligations. [GPS: As we have said in the past, May's decision to concede this point in January was a major concession to the EU and is the reason that the negotiations are not and will not be acrimonious. If the U.K. demanded access to the Common Market without accepting the "four freedoms," it would have received an acrimonious response, given that its request would have been construed as "special treatment."] So our task is to find a new framework that allows for a close economic partnership but holds those rights and obligations in a new and different balance. But as we work out together how to do so, we do not start with a blank sheet of paper, like other external partners negotiating a free trade deal from scratch have done. In fact, we start from an unprecedented position. For we have the same rules and regulations as the EU - and our EU Withdrawal Bill will ensure they are carried over into our domestic law at the moment we leave the EU. [GPS: May is correct. The EU-U.K. trade negotiations should be relatively smooth given that the U.K. is not starting from scratch in negotiating the relationship. The Canada-EU FTA took seven years because they were starting from scratch.] So the question for us now in building a new economic partnership is not how we bring our rules and regulations closer together, but what we do when one of us wants to make changes. One way of approaching this question is to put forward a stark and unimaginative choice between two models: either something based on European Economic Area membership; or a traditional Free Trade Agreement, such as that the EU has recently negotiated with Canada. I don't believe either of these options would be best for the UK or best for the European Union. European Economic Area membership would mean the UK having to adopt at home - automatically and in their entirety - new EU rules. Rules over which, in future, we will have little influence and no vote. [GPS: We pointed out why such an arrangement would be illogical in March 2016. Essentially, the U.K. would leave the EU due to its onerous regulation and infringement on sovereignty only to accept the onerous regulation as a fait accompli with no room for British sovereignty (Diagram 1)!] Diagram 1The Central Paradox Of Brexit Such a loss of democratic control could not work for the British people. I fear it would inevitably lead to friction and then a damaging re-opening of the nature of our relationship in the near future: the very last thing that anyone on either side of the Channel wants. As for a Canadian style free trade agreement, we should recognise that this is the most advanced free trade agreement the EU has yet concluded and a breakthrough in trade between Canada and the EU. But compared with what exists between Britain and the EU today, it would nevertheless represent such a restriction on our mutual market access that it would benefit neither of our economies. [GPS: This is, by far, the most critical part of May's speech. She is essentially saying that a Canadian FTA deal would benefit the EU more than it benefits the U.K., a point we have made for nearly two years now. This is true. The U.K. needs access to the EU services market, where British exporters have a comparative advantage. Were they to secure an FTA deal with the EU instead, they would be giving Europe a massive advantage, given the bloc's comparative advantage in tradable goods (Chart 16). However, this takes us back to Diagram 1. What kind of a relationship does May expect to get from the EU when she is unwilling to accept any of the liabilities inherent in such a deep trade deal? That is precisely what the Common Market is for.] Chart 16Brexit Hinders U.K.'s Comparative Advantage Bottom Line: Prime Minister May's Florence speech has shown the limits of the U.K.'s negotiating position. May set a friendly tone with Europe, but she has nothing to bargain with. Much of the speech reiterated British commitment to Europe's security and its capacity to defend the continent from external threats. In exchange, May argues, the U.K. ought to receive the deepest and most expansive access to the EU Common Market without any of the liabilities that go with it. In particular, she wants access to the EU's services market, where U.K. exporters have a comparative advantage. The problem with the tradeoff between U.K. geopolitical benefits and EU economic benefits is that it suggests that London has an alternative to being a geopolitical ally to Europe! As if it could suddenly shift its geopolitical, military, and diplomatic focus elsewhere. Berlin, Brussels, and Paris will call London's bluff. The U.K. is not in North America, it is in Europe. As such, Europe's problems are the U.K.'s problems, and the U.K. must defend against them even if it receives little in return. We expect the U.K. to succumb to the reality that the EU holds most of the cards in the negotiations. The U.K. will have a lower potential GDP growth rate after Brexit. But before Brexit is solidified, we expect considerable domestic political upheaval. In the short term, there is some upside for the pound. In the long term, it is a sell. Marko Papic, Senior Vice President Chief Geopolitical Strategist marko@bcaresearch.com Jesse Anak Kuri, Research Analyst jesse.kuri@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Strategic Outlook, "Strategic Outlook 2017: We Are All Geopolitical Strategists Now," dated December 14, 2016, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy and Foreign Exchange Strategy Special Report, "The French Revolution," dated February 3, 2017, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 3 Although she has herself played a role in kicking out the original, even more moderate, founders of the party. 4 The CDU, FDP, and Greens coalition is dubbed the "Jamaica coalition" because of their traditional colors - black, yellow, and green - which combine to make the colors of the Jamaican flag. 5 The CSU does not directly compete against the CDU on the federal level. It only fields candidates in Bavaria, where the CDU does not compete. 6 For the full transcript, please see "Theresa May's Florence speech on Brexit, full text," The Spectator, September 22, 2017, available at blogs.spectator.co.uk. 7 In turn, this will allow the EU to build up its power, develop a navy, and finally conquer the British Isles with a new armada somewhere around 2066! Geopolitical Calendar

Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors - one of our favorite and long-standing indicators to assess the potential for monetary policy changes. The broad conclusion - the Monitors are all at or above the threshold signaling that tighter monetary policy is required, validating the recent hawkish shift by policymakers. Feature September has been an active month for central bankers. The Bank of Canada hiked rates again, the European Central Bank gave strong hints that a tapering of its asset purchase program will soon be announced, and the Bank of England warned that tighter policy might soon be required. Just last week, the Federal Reserve began the process of reducing its massive balance sheet while also making no changes to its plans to hike interest rates several times over the next year. This is setting up a potential nasty surprise for bond markets. Investors have became deeply skeptical about the possibility of policymakers shifting in a more hawkish direction without an obvious trigger from faster inflation. Yet the global economy is in a synchronized expansion with the largest share of countries operating at (or beyond) full employment since the pre-crisis years. Inflation is in the process of stabilizing, or grinding higher, in most of the major economies. In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors - one of our favorite indicators to assess the potential for monetary policy changes. The broad conclusion - the Monitors are all at or above the threshold signaling that tighter policy is required, validating the recent hawkish shift by policymakers (Chart of the Week). Chart of the WeekGrowing Pressures To Tighten, According To Our Central Bank Monitors An Overview Of The BCA Central Bank Monitors Chart 2Upward Pressure On Global Bond Yields The BCA Central Bank Monitors are composite indicators designed to measure the cyclical growth and inflation pressures that can influence future monetary policy decisions. The economic data series used to construct the Monitors are not the same for every country, but the list of indicators generally measure the same things (i.e. manufacturing cycles, domestic demand strength, commodity prices, labor market conditions, exchange rates, etc). The data series are standardized and combined to form the Monitors. Readings above the zero line for each Monitor indicate pressures for central banks to raise interest rates, and vice versa. Through the nexus between growth, inflation, and market expectations of future interest rate changes, the Monitors do exhibit broad correlations to government bond yields in the Developed Markets (Chart 2). Currently, the Monitors are all near or above the zero line, providing context for why central bankers have shifted towards a more hawkish bias of late. Actual rate hikes are still not likely over the next few months outside of the Fed and BoC (we remain skeptical on the potential for the BoE to realistically tighten policy). More importantly, the underlying growth and inflation pressures indicated by the Monitors suggest that policymakers will maintain a hawkish bias (or, at best, a neutral tone) in their communications with the markets. One new addition to the individual country sections in this Chartbook are charts showing the Monitors, broken into growth and inflation components. The conclusion from these new charts is that the current level of the overall Monitors is a reflection of strong economic growth in all countries, with the inflation components giving more mixed signals. The Fed Monitor: Neutral For Now, Likely To Head Higher Again Our Fed Monitor has drifted lower over the past several months, and now sits just slightly above the zero line, calling for no imminent need to change U.S. monetary policy (Chart 3A). FOMC members have been sending more balanced messages in their recent speeches, specifically noting the confusing mix of what appears to be a U.S. economy operating at full employment but with slowing core inflation (Chart 3B). Chart 3AU.S.: Fed Monitor Chart 3BNo Spare Capacity In The U.S. When looking at the breakdown of our Monitor into its main inputs (Chart 3C), the growth component remains in a steady grinding uptrend. The inflation component had softened since the peak earlier this year, but the latest reading shows a slight uptick. Chart 3CPressure On The Fed From U.S. Growth. Is Inflation Next? Looking ahead, we expect realized U.S. inflation, which looks to be stabilizing after the downturn since the spring, to grind higher alongside a steadily expanding U.S. economy. With corporate profits and household incomes expanding, and with leading indicators steadily climbing, there is little reason to expect much sustained slowing of U.S. growth in the next few quarters. The next move in our Fed Monitor will likely be upward. The historical correlations between changes in our Fed Monitor and changes in U.S. Treasury yields suggest that any renewed increase in the Monitor should put more upward pressure on the front end of the yield curve than the back end (Chart 3D). This suggests that Treasury curve would bear-flatten as the market priced in more Fed rate hikes. However, we see a greater near-term risk of a bear-steepening of the curve given the low level of market-based inflation expectations. The Fed will want to see those rise - which will require signs of realized inflation rebounding - before delivering another rate hike, perhaps as soon as December. Chart 3DThe Fed Monitor Is Most Correlated To Shorter-Maturity USTs BoE Monitor: The Window Is Closing For A Rate Hike Our Bank of England (BoE) Monitor has been in the "tight money required" zone since the end of 2015 and has not signaled a need for easier monetary policy since 2012 (Chart 4A). This is unsurprising with the U.K. economy running beyond full employment for over three years alongside a steady rise in inflation (Chart 4B). Chart 4AU.K.: BoE Monitor Chart 4BTight Capacity In The U.K. The after-effects of the Brexit vote last year are still an issue for the U.K. economy and the BoE. The central bank eased monetary policy (rate cuts and QE) after the Brexit shock as insurance against the massive economic uncertainty. Yet that not only provided stimulus to an economy that was already operating beyond full employment, but also resulted in a 16% peak-to-trough decline in the British Pound. The result: a surge in headline U.K. inflation to 2.9%, well above the BoE's 2% target. The BoE sent a hawkish message at the policy meeting earlier this month, signaling that interest rates would have to rise if growth evolves in line with their forecasts. We are skeptical on that front: U.K. leading economic indicators have rolled over, real income growth has stagnated due the high inflation, and business confidence continues to be dragged down by Brexit uncertainties. Also, the greater stability in the trade-weighted Pound - now essentially flat versus year-ago levels - should result in some cooling off of the currency-driven surge in inflation, which the inflation component of our BoE Monitor is already signaling (Chart 4C). Chart 4CThe Inflation Component Of The BoE Monitor Has Collapsed We remain neutral on Gilts, as we expect the BoE to remain on hold and not follow through on their recent hawkish commentary (Chart 4D). Chart 4DThe Gilt/BoE Monitor Correlations Are Higher At The Long-End ECB Monitor: On Course For A 2018 Taper Our European Central Bank (ECB) Monitor has steadily climbed over the course of 2017 and now sits right on the zero line (Chart 5A). The solid and broad-based economic expansion in the Euro Area has soaked up spare capacity. The unemployment rate has fallen to an 8-year low of 9.1%, suggesting that the Euro Area economy is very close to full employment for the first time since the Great Recession (Chart 5B). Chart 5AEuro Area: ECB Monitor Chart 5BExcess Capacity In Europe Dwindling Fast Against that strong growth backdrop, core inflation has been grinding higher off the lows, but at 1.4% remains below the ECB 2% target for headline inflation. When looking at the components of our ECB Monitor, however, rising inflation pressures have been as important a reason behind the pickup in the Monitor as stronger growth (Chart 5C). Chart 5CGrowth Has Pushed The ECB Monitor Higher This Year The deflation threat that prompted the ECB to begin its own asset purchase program in 2015 has passed, and we expect the ECB to announce a tapering of the bond buying starting in January 2018. If growth and inflation evolve according to the ECB's forecasts - which is likely barring an additional major surge in the euro from current elevated levels - then there is a good chance that the asset purchase program will be wound down by the end of 2018. Interest rate hikes are still some time away, though. The market is currently discounting a first 25bp ECB rate hike around October 2019. We agree with that pricing, as the ECB will "follow the Fed playbook" and not begin rate hikes until well after the end of the asset purchase program. We remain underweight Euro Area government debt, with a bias towards bear-steepening of yield curves as inflation expectations should steadily climb higher and the ECB keeps policy rates unchanged (Chart 5D). Chart 5DStronger Bond/ECB Monitor Correlations At The Short-End BoJ Monitor: Creeping Higher, Surprisingly The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monitor has steadily climbed throughout 2017 and now sits right on the zero line (Chart 6A). While overall inflation rates remain well below the 2% BoJ target, the steady economic expansion has absorbed spare economic capacity, with the unemployment rate now down to a mere 2.8% (Chart 6B). Both the growth and inflation components of our BoJ Monitor have been rising (Chart 6C). Chart 6AJapan: BoJ Monitor Chart 6BTight Labor Market, But Still No Inflation While the pickup in inflation off the lows is a welcome sight for the BoJ, there is no immediate pressure to shift to a less accommodative policy stance (Chart 6D). In fact, the central bank has already done its own version of a "taper" by moving to a 0% yield target on JGBs one year ago. Maintaining that yield level has required a slower pace of asset purchases by the central bank, which are running at an annualized pace of 70 trillion yen so far in 2017, below the 80 trillion yen target for the current QE program. Chart 6CTight Labor Market, But Still No Inflation We do not see the BoJ abandoning the 0% yield target anytime soon. By depressing JGB yields, the BoJ hopes to engineer additional weakness in the yen which will feed through into faster inflation and rising inflation expectations. This appears to be the only way to generate any inflation in Japan, even with such a low unemployment rate. Chart 6DLow Correlations Between the BoJ Monitor & JGB Yields It will require a rise in Japanese core inflation back towards 2% before the BoJ will even begin to discuss any real tapering of its QE program. Thus, JGBs will remain a low-beta "safe-haven" among Developed Market government bonds, where there is greater risk of central bank tightening actions that will push yields higher. Remain overweight. BoC Monitor: More Tightening To Come The Bank of Canada (BoC) Monitor has been comfortably above the zero line throughout 2017 (Chart 7A). The Canadian economy has shown robust growth, which has soaked up spare capacity (Chart 7B). The BoC is projecting that the output gap in Canada will likely be fully closed before the end of this year. The surprising surge in growth is likely to continue given the strength in the leading economic indicators and the robust readings from the BoC's own Business Outlook Survey. Chart 7ACanada: BoC Monitor Chart 7BStill Not Much Inflation In Canada The central bank has already responded to the faster-than-expected pace of growth with two 25bps rate hikes since July. This took place even without much of a pick-up in realized inflation or in the inflation component of our BoC Monitor (Chart 7C). Clearly, the BoC is focusing more on the rapidly accelerating economy, with real GDP growth surging to a 3.7% year-over-year pace in Q2. With the BoC Overnight Rate still at a very low level of 1%, well below the central bank's own estimate of the neutral "terminal" rate of 3%, there is room for additional rate hikes as long as growth remains robust. Chart 7CRising Growth Pressures On The BoC, Still No Inflation The surging Canadian dollar is not yet a concern for the BoC, as this reflects both the improving Canadian economy and the Fed taking a pause on its own rate hiking cycle. With the latter poised to resume in December and continue into 2018, the appreciation of the "Loonie" is likely to cool off, even if the BoC keeps raising rates. We have maintained an underweight stance on Canadian bonds, with a curve flattening bias, since mid-year (Chart 7D). We are sticking with that stance, even with the market now priced for nearly 70bps of additional rate hikes over the next year. If the Canadian economy continues to grow rapidly, and the Fed returns to hiking rates, the BoC can tighten to levels beyond current market pricing. Chart 7DA Rising BoC Monitor Typically Leads To A Flatter Canadian Yield Curve RBA Monitor: Conflicting Forces Our Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monitor remains in "tighter policy required" territory (Chart 8A). Core inflation has picked up slightly, dragging market expectations along with it, but headline price growth has declined below 2% (Chart 8B). However, commodity prices continue to ease, survey-based measures of inflation expectations have pulled back and the inflation component of the RBA Monitor has retreated from the highs (Chart 8C). Chart 8AAustralia: RBA Monitor Chart 8BNo Inflation Pressures On The RBA The RBA is facing conflicting forces of an improving labor market and booming house prices, combined with high consumer indebtedness and nonexistent real wage growth. Though employment growth has recently spiked, part time employment as a percentage of total is just starting to roll over and underemployment remains elevated. Labor market conditions will need to tighten considerably for wages to rise and consumer confidence to recover. A wide output gap, mixed employment backdrop and a lack of inflation pressure will likely keep the policymakers on hold for longer than the market expects. Chart 8CRBA Facing Surging Growth Pressures & Cooling Inflation Pressures We are currently at a neutral stance on Australian government bonds, given the mixed economic backdrop. Instead, we prefer to maintain our 2yr/10yr yield curve flattener trade. The short end will remain anchored by an inactive RBA, with the long end facing downward pressure from soft inflation expectations and macro-prudential measures in the housing market dampening credit growth. Even if the RBA were to tighten policy as markets expect, the yield curve would flatten. Additionally, negative correlations between Australian yield curves and the RBA monitor have been more robust in the post-crisis era (Chart 8D). As labor markets continue to improve, the other components of the Monitor, such as wages, retail sales and consumer confidence, will follow. Chart 8DThe Entire Australian Curve Is Highly Correlated To Our RBA Monitor RBNZ Monitor: Rate Hikes Are Needed Our Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Monitor has been the strongest of all our Monitors, and is currently well into "tight money required" territory" (Chart 9A). The solid New Zealand economic expansion has fully absorbed spare capacity, and both headline core inflation are accelerating towards the RBNZ target (Chart 9B). Both the inflation and growth components are surging, contributing to the overall sharp rise in the RBNZ Monitor (Chart 9C). Chart 9ANew Zealand: RBNZ Monitor Chart 9BFull Employment & Rising Inflation In NZ So with growth and inflation looking perkier, why has the RBNZ not delivered on rate hikes this year? They central bank has highlighted "international uncertainties" related to geopolitical risks as well as trade tensions between China and the U.S. that could spill over into New Zealand exports to Asia. The central bank has also shown caution in its own growth and inflation forecasts, despite the signs of strength. Chart 9CHow Much Longer Can The RBNZ Ignore This? More likely, the RBNZ has been actively trying to avoid an unwanted surge in the currency that could derail the economy. Given the elevated geopolitical tensions with North Korea, it is likely that the RBNZ will stick with a dovish message - especially given the recent pickup in the currency. We have been running long positions in New Zealand government debt versus U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds in our Tactical Overlay portfolio since May. We've been heeding the commentary of the central bank rather than our own RBNZ Monitor, although the divergence between the two is becoming unsustainable (Chart 9D). The Q3 CPI inflation report due in October will be critical to assess the RBNZ's next move. We are sticking with our recommended trades, for now. Chart 9DNZ Bonds Are Vulnerable To Current Cyclical Growth & Inflation Pressures Robert Robis, Senior Vice President Global Fixed Income Strategy rrobis@bcaresearch.com Patrick Trinh, Associate Editor Patrick@bcaresearch.com Recommendations Duration Regional Allocation Spread Product Tactical Trades Yields & Returns Global Bond Yields Historical Returns