Euro

The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?

In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?

A short insight on the ECB and near-term implications for European asset markets.

European stocks have massively underperformed US ones since the GFC. Demographics and productivity say this trend will continue, but is that really so?

The economic schism in the world economy, between the non-US developed economy in recession and the US in strong growth, is unprecedented during our lifetimes. Now the schism will continue in reverse, as the non-US developed economy rebounds while the US fades. There are important implications for rates, the dollar, and sector and regional equity allocation which we discuss. Plus: base metals are a tactical short.

In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.