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Euro

We look at the implications for FX from the slew of central bank meetings this week.

In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the euro has ample attractive features that justify a positive long-term outlook. However, its pro-cyclicality and the dollar’s negative correlation to risk assets constitute important…
Special Report

Explore the eight main themes that will drive the returns of European assets in 2024.

Recent Euro Area economic data have been sending a less pessimistic signal. Wednesday’s releases are in line with this trend. The European Commission’s confidence indicator shows a mild improvement in economic sentiment in November – confirming the recent…
Confidence is on the mend in the Euro Area. The rebounding ZEW growth expectations index reveals that investors are becoming more optimistic. The German IFO's business climate index inched higher in October for the first time since April, suggesting that…

In this report, we go around the globe and survey the near-term outlook for G10 currencies. Our longer-term view on the dollar has been clear, we are sellers. In this report, we review if a tactical sell is also warranted given incoming data and the message from our models.

High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned.

The Eurozone's October inflation release confirmed the signal from the German and Spanish reports that price pressures are moderating. CPI inflation softened from 4.3% y/y to 2.9% y/y (below expectations of 3.1% y/y) while the monthly rate of change eased to…

What will the next manufacturing cycle look like in Europe and how will risk assets perform? Lessons from the recent past.