Euro

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond yields and the euro.

In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.

This week, we review our currency positions, based on the latest data from G10 economies.

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, UK, euro area, and Japan. Plus: bitcoin’s structural uptrend to $100,000+ is still intact.

In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.

This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.