Euro

In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.

This week, we review our currency positions, based on the latest data from G10 economies.

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, UK, euro area, and Japan. Plus: bitcoin’s structural uptrend to $100,000+ is still intact.

In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.

This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.

We look at the implications for FX from the slew of central bank meetings this week.

In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.