Equities
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service remains tactically neutral with a defensive cyclical bias. The team is resisting the impulse to turn prematurely defensive ahead of the coming recession. Our colleagues believe that fleeing for the hills at…
Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?
Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish.
Preliminary PMI estimates suggest that US economic leadership remained intact in June, despite previous signs that it was passing the global growth baton to the rest of the world. US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs all surpassed expectations as…
Gold spot prices have returned a whopping 25% YTD, with the bulk of this performance having occurred in the last three months. Interestingly, these gains have occurred despite the rise in real yields, with which they are usually strongly inversely…
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) was the first major central bank to embark on a dovish pivot back in March. It lowered borrowing costs Thursday for a second consecutive meeting, from 1.5% to 1.25%, despite expectations that it would hold the policy rate…
The heart of the US manufacturing sector is still pulsing. Industrial production surpassed expectations in May, growing by 0.9% m/m after having stagnated in April. Notably, the pro-cyclical manufacturing production index rebounded from April’s surprise…
Nvidia is now the largest company in the world. Its market capitalization has not only surpassed Microsoft’s, it also tops the entire stock market capitalizations of the UK and France. While Nvidia founders and owners are likely to welcome this news, it acts…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Beijing will engage in ongoing negotiations with the EU regarding its import tax decision rather than impose meaningful retaliatory measures. The EU and China appear to be negotiating ahead of…
US retail sales were mostly unchanged, growing by a mere 0.1% m/m in May, short of the expected 0.3% monthly increase. A 2.2% m/m decline in gasoline stations’ sales weighed on the overall result, though retail sales excluding autos and gas disappointed by an…