The preliminary University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped in June to 65.6 from 69.1, against expectations of improving morale. Consumers’ assessments of current conditions declined by a larger…
Chinese new loans grew from CNY 10.2 tr to CNY 11.1tr in May, disappointing expectations of CNY 11.3tr. Year-to-date aggregate financing also came short of anticipations, growing from CNY 12.7tr to CNY 14.8tr. Notably, the…
We continue to expect a recession by early 2025 but assign non-trivial odds to growth surprising to the upside until then. Our Global Investment Strategy team thus recommends investors adopt a barbell equity strategy as a…
1 in 17 older Americans workers have gone missing either through ‘excess retirements’ or ‘excess mortality’. The consequent dislocation of the labour market means that the Fed’s work is not yet done. We go through some investment…
The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism (SBO) Index came in at 90.5 in May, above expectations that it would remain flat at 89.7. Despite the upside surprise, the Russell 2000 index closed down 40 basis points on Tuesday while…
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -3.6 to 0.3 in June, easily surpassing expectations of a more muted improvement to -1.7. Notably, the Expectation and Current Situation subindices rose to 28-month and 13-month…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Modi’s loss of a majority government reduces the odds for more reforms, but does not change the structural outlook. Modi comes out of the election with…
A decade of Canadian equity underperformance has led to a historical discount relative to the S&P 500. Sector composition largely explains this underperformance. Banks and natural resources stocks are overrepresented in the…
Although the comprehensive economic surprise indexes continued weakening in May, the metrics in our equity downgrade checklist haven’t softened enough to check more boxes now. While we continue to expect the US economy will enter a…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Republicans are more likely to win the Senate than the White House – and more likely to win either of these than the House. But Republicans are favored in…