Equities
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure surprised to the upside in August, rising from 100.3 to 103.3, above expectations of 100.7. Consumers’ assessment of present economic conditions climbed 0.8 points to 134.4, while their expectations about the…
Brazilian equities have largely underperformed their EM peers in USD terms since the beginning of the year. Rising public debt and inflation are the two main forces weighing on the Brazilian bourse. Our Emerging Market strategists expect public debt-to-GDP…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will come to fruition. This Nordic country…
Preliminary estimates suggest that US durable goods orders growth rebounded sharply from a 6.9% m/m contraction to 9.9% growth in July, upending expectations of a more muted 5.0% monthly increase. However, a 34.8% m/m rise in transportation equipment orders…
The equal-weighted S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high of 7,096.12 on Monday. Chair Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week dispelled any remaining doubt about a September rate cut and sent smaller stocks higher. The Russell…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to uncertainty. Once the election results are…
Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?
Favor Health Care and Utilities for defensive positioning amid economic slowdown and volatility as the presidential election approaches. A Republican Sweep favors Real Estate and Materials, while the second most likely outcome, Democrat gridlock, favors Health Care, and Information Technology.
UK GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% in the second quarter, and the latest PMI data underscores contrasts with its DM counterparts (see The Numbers). Several tailwinds are supporting the UK economy. Two-year Gilt yields have fallen nearly 200 bps since June…
We’ve highlighted that continued deterioration in consumer fundamentals will tip the US economy into a recession. Slower compensation growth, tighter lending standards for consumer loans and dwindling excess savings will constrain spending in an economy where…