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Equities

Sweden Will Cut The Gordian Knot
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will come to fruition. This Nordic country…
Daily Insights
Durable Goods Orders’ Rebound Hides Weaker Dynamics
Preliminary estimates suggest that US durable goods orders growth rebounded sharply from a 6.9% m/m contraction to 9.9% growth in July, upending expectations of a more muted 5.0% monthly increase. However, a 34.8% m/m rise in transportation equipment orders…
Daily Insights
Market Breadth Remains Poor Despite Equal-weighted S&P 500’s Record High
Market Breadth Remains Poor Despite Equal-weighted S&P 500’s Record High …
Daily Insights
Equities And Elections
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to uncertainty. Once the election results are…
Daily Insights
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Sweden Will Cut The Gordian Knot

Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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US Equities: What To Select For The President Elect

Favor Health Care and Utilities for defensive positioning amid economic slowdown and volatility as the presidential election approaches. A Republican Sweep favors Real Estate and Materials, while the second most likely outcome, Democrat gridlock, favors Health Care, and Information Technology.

US Political Strategy, Equity Analyzer, US Equity Strategy by Pratik Bhanuse, Max Malakhveitchouk, Guy Russell
On The UK’s Economic Outperformance
UK GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% in the second quarter, and the latest PMI data underscores contrasts with its DM counterparts (see The Numbers). Several tailwinds are supporting the UK economy. Two-year Gilt yields have fallen nearly 200 bps since June…
Daily Insights
Sound Household Balance Sheets Won’t Save The Eurozone
We’ve highlighted that continued deterioration in consumer fundamentals will tip the US economy into a recession. Slower compensation growth, tighter lending standards for consumer loans and dwindling excess savings will constrain spending in an economy where…
Daily Insights
Recession Call Intact Despite Easier Financial Conditions
According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) financial conditions have become considerably more supportive since the fall of 2023. More recently, the index ticked noticeably lower from 99.4 earlier in August to 98.8. US equities have indeed…
Daily Insights
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Volatility Will Return Very Soon (GeoRisk Update)

Investors should buy protection against further volatility. The shakeup in early August was a taste of things to come. The US election is a pivotal moment in modern history that will drive up uncertainty, while other countries take advantage of US division and distraction.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

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