Equities
Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.
Chinese economic data releases continue to disappoint. Wednesday’s NBS PMI release showed the composite PMI dropped from 54.4 to 52.9 in May – the lowest since January. Importantly, the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell deeper in contraction territory from…
The JOLTS survey for April shows job openings unexpectedly rising from an upwardly revised 9.7 million to 10.1 million – above expectations of a decline to 9.4 million. The job openings rate inched up to 6.1% from 5.9% while the ratio of job openings to…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service French banks are better positioned to weather current headwinds than their European peers. The team sees limited risks to the French banking sector from the recent banking turmoil. French…
Expectations for oil demand growth through 2023-24 are way too optimistic. Until these expectations fall to -0.5-1 percent, the oil price has further downside. Plus: collapsed complexity confirms that AI is in a mania, while basic materials stocks and ZAR/EUR are rebound candidates.
One of the most noteworthy developments of the Q1-2023 earnings season was that the net profit margin widened from 10.7% in Q4-2023 to 11.1%. This marked the first margin expansion since the 12.9% peak in Q2-2021. The year-end target for net profit margin is…
Favor Aerospace & Defense On A Strategic Basis
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Market pricing of Fed rate expectations has moved closer in line with our US bond strategists’ expectations. According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 40% chance that the fed funds rate will be lower than current levels following…
A major divergence has emerged between the performance of the S&P500 and the US equal-weighted stock index. Even though the S&P500 index has been grinding higher, the US equal-weighted index has failed to rally. Such a pronounced decoupling…
Now that the French pension reforms have been passed, President Macron’s focus will be on the international stage. Where are the risks and opportunities for French assets created by this pivot?