Equities
On June 7th, the VIX closed just below 14, its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. The index has been on an unprecedented downtrend since March. In fact, the most recent 60-day change in the VIX is in the bottom 3% of all 60-day moves. Lower…
Near the half-year mark, it is safe to say 2023 has been different than 2022 for equity investors. After being brought down in bear market territory by Europe’s energy crisis and sudden global shift to hawkish monetary policy in 2022, the S&P 500 was…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, an analysis of the AI rally’s complexity suggests that the rally is nearing a potential reversal point. Can the AI euphoria continue to drive the S&P 500 higher? It’s possible, but there are two…
A benign disinflation will support equities over the next few quarters. Stocks will fall next year as a recession begins when investors least expect it.
Eurozone households are becoming less concerned about the near-term outlook for inflation. The results of the latest ECB Consumer Expectations survey show a significant drop in median 12-month inflation expectations from 5.0% in March to 4.1% in April – the…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…
What’s going on? The market-weighted stock market is up. But the equally-weighted stock market is not up. Neither is credit. Neither are industrial metal prices. Neither is the oil price, despite two waves of OPEC output cuts. We explain the dichotomy. Plus: European basic resources stocks can rebound, but Netherlands is likely to reverse.
Tuesday’s German factory orders release sent a disappointing signal about industrial demand. Although the pace of decline eased from -10.9% m/m to -0.4% m/m in April, it fell below expectations of a 2.8% m/m increase. Both capital and consumer goods orders…
After a brief period of outperformance in late-2022/early-2023, Emerging Market stocks have been underperforming their Developed Market counterparts since January 19. While the DM equity benchmark is up 6.9% over this period, the EM index has lost 4.0% in USD…
The Swedish manufacturing PMI declined to 40.6 in May, the lowest level since June 2020. This deterioration in Sweden’s manufacturing activity not only reflects the domestic economy, but it also highlights weaknesses in the global industrial cycle. Sweden…