The October update of the Global Manufacturing PMI sent a pessimistic signal about the industrial cycle. The headline index declined from 49.2 to 48.8, indicating a faster pace of deterioration. In particular, the Output,…
In financial systems, cracks typically begin on the periphery and then expand to the center. Hence, the ruptures on the fringes often act as an early warning. These fissures tend to widen and spread to the core, causing a breakdown…
The broad-based selloff continued in October. Fixed income markets performed particularly poorly as stronger-than-anticipated US economic data generated upside pressure on long-dated bond yields in the US and, to a lesser…
South Korean exports are the latest in a series of Asian trade data suggesting that the global trade cycle is bottoming. The 5.1% y/y increase in October marks the first return to growth since September 2022. Among South Korea…
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI delivered a disappointing update on factory activity in October. The headline index unexpectedly fell to 46.7, surprising consensus estimates it would remain unchanged at 49.0. In particular, a sharp…
The fundamental component of long-term inflation expectations has climbed to its highest level since 2008 in both the US and the euro area. This means that both the Fed and the ECB will need to engineer inflation to undershoot 2…
High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned.
We maintain our view that China’s economic growth in the coming months will remain lackluster. Beijing's recent measures to provide additional financing may help to bridge the gap in government spending in the rest of 2023 and into…
Tuesday’s China PMI release delivered a negative update on economic activity in October. The NBS’ Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2 to 49.5 while the Non-manufacturing PMI declined from 51.7 to 50.6. Both measures fell…
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the S&P 500's year-to-date rally is narrow in breadth and that the equal weighted index has erased all its year-to-date gains. This is also true in the case of the Euro Area where…