According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, there are several avenues for tensions between Israel and Iran to escalate. Investors need to hedge against a 30% risk of a…
The implication is that Israel chose not to escalate the risk of direct war with Iran. Hence we remain in our base-case “Minor War, Minor Oil Shock” scenario.
This year’s rise in commodity prices represents a blow-off rally rather than the start of a durable bull market. The global economy is heading for a recession. Stocks, commodities, and other risk assets are vulnerable.
The US Energy sector has shifted from a capex and growth obsessed industry to one that is more focused on shareholder returns. ESG as well as the collapse in oil prices during the 2010s were the main culprits. Divesture due to…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the US-Russia conflict will re-escalate pre-election. Russia has taken 18% of Ukraine’s territory but has not yet clinched its victory. The western powers…
Our quant models suggest Democrats are still slightly favored for the White House. Our Senate model favors Republican control, though Montana and Ohio are the weak links that could deliver Democrats a de facto Senate majority in the…
In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and…
Financial markets appear unphased by the increase in Mideast tensions that occurred with Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel over the weekend. Most notably, crude oil prices declined on Monday, suggesting that investors are…
Stay overweight US equities versus world, long US energy sector versus Middle East stocks, and long Canada and Mexico versus global-ex-US stocks.