Monetary and energy policy errors will keep oil- and gas-price volatility elevated. This will continue to weaken capex in conventional and renewable energy. Headline inflation will remain elevated. We remain long the XOP ETF, to…

Special Report

There has been an unprecedented divergence between global and Chinese thermal coal ("coal") prices since the Russia-Ukraine war commenced in February 2022. Such a wide price gap is unsustainable. This price convergence will continue…

Special Report

The G7’s attempt to insert itself in the oil-price-formation process performed by global trading markets will distort markets and the signals driving production, consumption and investment. The G7 will need a face-saving off-ramp to…

OPEC 2.0’s decision to cut 2mm b/d of output beginning in December telescopes the loss of Russian volumes we expect over the course of the coming year. OPEC 2.0 clearly is not playing by the G7’s or the US’s rules. This will keep…

Special Report

The BoE is the key to arrest the meltdown in UK assets, but will the malaise engulfing London only end up traveling to Rome?

Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…

This week’s Global Investment Strategy report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.

Executive Summary EU Metal Industry Under Threat  Russia’s threat to cut off all remaining exports of natural gas to the EU via Ukraine will further imperil the bloc’s struggling metals industry, particularly…

Special Report

Executive Summary What To Do With The Euro?  The outlook for European assets is uniquely muddled. European energy prices will remain elevated, but the worst of the adjustment is already behind us. The global economy is…

Executive Summary Higher Brent Prices, Stronger Upside Bias  The Fed is pacing a globally synchronized monetary-policy tightening cycle as the war in Ukraine escalates, following Russia’s mobilization of 300k reserve…