In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
CCP officials are discussing policy options for breaking out of a deepening liquidity trap. Anything policymakers come up with will be additive to existing spending and to the multi-trillion-dollar fiscal-stimulus packages being…
Systematically important central banks continue to compound policy errors, which will feed higher headline inflation. Hiking interest rates to induce labor-market slack – i.e., higher unemployment – to bring down core inflation will…
China’s victory in getting KSA and Iran to restore diplomatic relations is of far greater consequence to commodity markets than the past weeks’ bank failures in the US. For China, further success in sorting long-standing security…
Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.
The development of trading blocs and the rise of economic warfare will lead to the inefficient allocation of resources. Higher fiscal outlays and tight commodity supplies will feed into energy prices driving headline inflation. It…
Central Banks remain in thrall to the mistaken impression that backwardated oil futures markets are signaling lower headline inflation over the next 2-3 years. This is not the signal the markets are sending: Backwardation is an…
China’s housing market adjustment will be protracted, causing several years of sub-par growth in the world’s second largest economy. We go through the major investment implications.
The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.