Global oil demand growth is tracking with our estimate of ~ 1.8mm b/d for this year. Supply discipline is being maintained by OPEC 2.0, where the core (KSA and the UAE) and Russia have reduced production by ~ 240k b/d yoy in 1H23.…

Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical…

Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that…

Markets continue to be tossed to and fro by central-bank policy, and risks of higher commodity prices. These are due to fiscal stimulus and exogenous weather and war-related risk, which could send food and energy prices higher this…

Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.

Special Report

We build a four-stage business cycle framework based on economic growth and capacity utilization, and then analyze historical returns for most major asset allocation decisions for each stage. Given that we are in the early recession…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

China’s economic and diplomatic interests in the GCC region will expand, as will its military presence. Whether or not this stabilizes the region is yet to be determined, particularly if tensions in the South China Sea and other…

The attempted coup in Russia produced subdued short-covering rallies in oil, gas, and grains markets, as markets over time have observed that coups, rarely result in loss of production and exports. Markets await Putin’s next move.…